瓦努阿图以南二级热带气旋“厄米尔”(23P/09F.Urmil) - 东南行进，南太26年首个命名气旋

pocketbox

WTNC18 NWBB 271425
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
Issued by NEW-CALEDONIA METSERVICE
at 2026-02-27 13:44 UTC
Name: tropical cyclone category 1 URMIL
Data at 2026-02-27 12:00 UTC
Latitude: 19.5 S
Longitude: 169.2 E
Location accuracy: within 30 nm
Movement toward: 106 degree
Speed of movement: 6 kt
Maximum 10-minutes wind: 45 kt
Maximum wind gust: 65 kt
Central pressure: X hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 65 nm
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds NE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds SE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds SW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds NW quadrant: X nm
Radius of maximum winds: 18 nm

FORECAST DATA
Date (UTC):  Location(degree):  Accuracy(nm):  Max wind(kt)
27/02/26 12UTC:  19.6 S  169.5 E:  30:  45
27/02/26 18UTC:  19.7 S  170.3 E:  40:  50
28/02/26 00UTC:  19.9 S  171.4 E:  50:  50
28/02/26 06UTC:  20.1 S  172.8 E:  60:  55
28/02/26 12UTC:  20.7 S  174.4 E:  80:  55
28/02/26 18UTC:  21.9 S  176.5 E:  90:  60
01/03/26 00UTC:  23.7 S  178.8 E:  100:  60
01/03/26 06UTC:  26.1 S  178.5 W:  110:  55
01/03/26 12UTC:  28.7 S  175.9 W:  130:  50
01/03/26 18UTC:  31.6 S  172.5 W:  140:  45
02/03/26 00UTC:  X  X:  X:  X
02/03/26 06UTC:  X  X:  X:  X

pocketbox

TC Warning Number 2 on Tropical Cyclone URMIL issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology
and Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 1:23am VUT Saturday 28 February 2026.

At 3:00Am local time today, Tropical Cyclone URMIl (990 hPa) Cat 1 was located at
19.9 degrees South 169.5 degrees East. Tropical Cyclone URMIL is positioned at the
bottom center of square letter J, number 10 (J,10) of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone
Tracking map. This is about 125 KM south southeast of Erromango. Tropical Cyclone
URMIL is moving in the east southeast at 16 KM/HR in the past 3 hours.

Damaging Gale force winds of 90 KM/HR (50 knots) will continue to affect Tafea
PROVINCE tonight and coninuing tomorrow.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (8am, 28 Feb)           20.2S, 170.2E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+12 hours (2pm, 28 Feb)           20.7S, 171.1E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (8pm, 28 Feb)           21.1S, 172.2E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (2am, 1 Mar)            21.8S, 173.5E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (2pm, 1 Mar)            23.8S, 176.7E            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+48 hours (2am, 2 Mar)            26.6S, 179.3W            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+60 hours (2pm, 2 Mar)            29.9S, 174.4W            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+72 hours (2am, 3 Mar)            33.6S, 168.8W            40 KTS (65 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfalls with flash flooding are expected over low lying areas and areas
close to river banks, including coastal flooding over TAFEA today and
continuing tomorrow. Very rough seas with heavy to phenomenal swells are expected
over the area mention above.

Marine strong wind warning is current for Central and southern waters of Vanuatu.
High Seas wind warning is also current for all open waters of Vanuatu. People,
including sea going vessels are advised to take extra precautions.

Office of the NDMO advises that Red Alert is now in effect for TAFE. Actions
regarding these colour alerts, contact NDMO on 22699.

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department will issue the next warning
bulletin on Tropical Cyclone URMIL at 6:00am or earlier if the situation changes.

People over TAFEA PROVINCE should listen to all Radio Outlets to get the latest
information on this system.

This warning is also available on VMGD's website
www.meteo.gov.vu and facebook page: Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/

	Time (VUT)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am February 28	1	19.9S	169.5E	95
+6hr	8 am February 28	1	20.2S	170.2E	95
+12hr	2 pm February 28	1	20.7S	171.1E	95
+18hr	8 pm February 28	1	21.1S	172.2E	95
+24hr	2 am March 1	1	21.8S	173.5E	95
+36hr	2 pm March 1	2	23.8S	176.7E	110
+48hr	2 am March 2	2	26.6S	179.3W	110
+60hr	2 pm March 2	1	29.9S	174.4W	130
+72hr	2 am March 3	tropical low	33.6S	168.8W	130

ygsj24

WTPS11 NFFN 271800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A06 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 271955 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 986HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.7S 169.5E AT 271800 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY,
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 03
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 45 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH MORE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY. SST IS
AROUND 27-28 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
CURVED PATTERN WITH 0.6-0.65 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, MET=3.0 AND
PT=3.0. FT BASED ON MET THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 20.6S 171.6E MOV ESE AT 11 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 22.2S 174.8E MOV ESE AT 14 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 25.0S 178.9E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 28.6S 176.1W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 280200UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	6 pm February 27	1	19.7S	169.5E	85
+6hr	12 am February 28	2	20.0S	170.4E	110
+12hr	6 am February 28	2	20.6S	171.6E	140
+18hr	12 pm February 28	2	21.1S	173.0E	165
+24hr	6 pm February 28	2	22.2S	174.8E	195
+36hr	6 am March 1	2	25.0S	178.9E	255
+48hr	6 pm March 1	1	28.6S	176.1W	315
+60hr	6 am March 2	1	32.9S	169.7W	405
+72hr	6 pm March 2	tropical low	38.3S	161.8W	490

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 170.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 170.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 20.4S 172.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 22.2S 175.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 25.2S 179.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 29.0S 175.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 170.5E.
27FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 272100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR
   
4. 005//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.7S 170.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 154 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY
    
18. OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
    
19. CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
20. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    
21. (VWS)  (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 C TO 29 C),
    
22. AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THROUGHOUT THE
    
23. WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL VWS AND DRY AIR
    
24. HAS BECOME EVIDENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, LEAVING MUCH OF THE
    
25. REGION CONVECTION FREE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    
26. CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 271756Z WSFM 89 GHZ
    
27. MICROWAVE IMAGE DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60
    
28. KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 271819Z RCM-1 SAR
    
29. DATA.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 271420Z AMSR2 DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
    
34. NORTHEAST
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
39.    PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
40.    CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 271530Z
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 271900Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 55 KTS AT 271900Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-MINT: 38 KTS AT 271659Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 56 KTS AT 271800Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
48.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
50.    OTHER FACTORS: SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF TC 23P CENTER,
    
51. SLOWLY INTRODUCING MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (URMIL) WILL
    
64. CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
    
65. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
    
66. THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE
    
67. TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
    
68. SHEAR ENHANCE THE VORTEX STRUCTURE AFTER ITS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
    
69. TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ISLES OF VANUATU. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
    
70. SHORT LIVED AS THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
    
71. TEMPERATURES (26 C TO 27 C) BY TAU 36, WHILE BECOMING UNFAVORABLY
    
72. IMPACTED BY WESTERLY JET FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    
73. AROUND THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
    
74. INITIATE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36, WITH SUBTROPICAL
    
75. TRANSITION COMPLETING BY TAU 48.
    
76. 
    
77. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
    
78. CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OF 23P AS IT IS DRIVEN POLEWARD BY
    
79. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS 90 NM BY TAU 48.
    
80. THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL
    
81. CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, ACCOUNTING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY
    
82. REGARDING THE TIMING OF IMPACTS FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
    
83. TO THE SOUTH. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A SHORT TERM
    
84. WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU 24, WITH A TERMINAL WEAKENING
    
85. TREND THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY IS PLACED SLIGHTLY
    
86. ABOVE THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, ACCOUNTING
    
87. FOR THE FORECASTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND SHORT WINDOW OF
    
88. INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
89. 
    
90. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
91.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
92.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
93. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 20.4S 170.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 170.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 21.4S 173.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 23.9S 177.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 27.5S 178.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 171.4E.
28FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280000Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 010300Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 280300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR
   
4. 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 20.4S 170.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 212 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 23P (URMIL) WITH A COMPLETELY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
    
19. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED SINCE THE
    
20. PREVIOUS WARNING, OFFSET TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE
    
21. CIRCULATION, WHILE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
    
22. FEW HOURS, DEPICTED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
    
23. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH
    
24. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), 27 C TO 28 C SEA SURFACE
    
25. TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
    
26. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EARLIER
    
27. 272153Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS
    
28. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED ON AN EARLIER 271819Z SAR
    
29. PASS, CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND SUBJECTIVE AGENCY
    
30. DVORAK ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 271819Z SAR DATA
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
39.    PHFO: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
40.    NFFN: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 272100Z
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 280100Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 56 KTS AT 280100Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-MINT: 52 KTS AT 272217Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 56 KTS AT 280100Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
49.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (URMIL) IS
    
63. FORECASTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
64. FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
    
65. EAST. WITH REGARDS TO INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO
    
66. GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A MAXIMUM OF 75 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
67. AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL INITIATE A TERMINAL
    
68. WEAKENING TREND FOR TC 23P, WITH THE VORTEX ENCOUNTERING 30+ KTS OF
    
69. MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26
    
70. C TO 27 C), AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN AND
    
71. NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
    
72. WILL QUICKEN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 24, WITH TC 23P
    
73. COMPLETING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 DUE TO ENHANCED VWS
    
74. GREATER THAN 30 KTS AND DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 23P WILL RETAIN
    
75. ELEVATED SURFACE INTENSITIES NEAR 65 KTS AT TAU 36, THROUGH ITS
    
76. TRANSITION INTO AN ASYMMETRIC WARM-CORE CYCLONE AND CONTINUE TO
    
77. WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED WITHIN
    
78. AN EQUATORWARD EXTENSION OF A MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
    
79. 
    
80. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
    
81. CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OF 23P AS IT IS DRIVEN POLEWARD BY
    
82. THE STR TO THE EAST. CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS 50 NM BY TAU 36. THE
    
83. JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS
    
84. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A
    
85. SHORT TERM WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU 24, AND A TERMINAL
    
86. WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY IS PLACED
    
87. CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
    
88. ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECASTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
    
89. QUICKENED SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE.
    
90. 
    
91. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
92.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
93.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
94. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTPS11 NFFN 280000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A07 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 280149 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 983HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.7S 170.6E AT 280000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI EIR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 14 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC AND SECONDARY
WHITE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF
LOW SHEAR, STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM
IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON CURVED PATTERN WITH 0.6-0.8 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL WITH WHITE
BAND, RESULTING IN DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET THUS,
YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTs SOUTH OF 25S AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 21.9S 173.2E MOV ESE AT 14 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 24.2S 176.8E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 27.6S 178.7W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 31.6S 173.1W MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 280800UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 am February 28	2	20.7S	170.6E	95
+6hr	6 am February 28	2	21.1S	171.7E	120
+12hr	12 pm February 28	3	21.9S	173.2E	150
+18hr	6 pm February 28	3	22.8S	174.8E	175
+24hr	12 am March 1	2	24.2S	176.8E	205
+36hr	12 pm March 1	1	27.6S	178.7W	265
+48hr	12 am March 2	tropical low	31.6S	173.1W	325
+60hr	12 pm March 2	tropical low	36.2S	166.1W	410
+72hr	12 am March 3	tropical low	41.8S	158.5W	500

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、张增海  签发：张 玲  2026 年 02 月 28 日 10 时
“厄米尔”向东南方向移动

时  间: 2月28日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “厄米尔”，URMIL

中心位置: 南纬20.7度，东经170.6度

强度等级: 热带气旋（2级）

最大风力: 10级，26米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 983百帕

参考位置: 距离南太平洋瓦努阿图维拉港东南方向约420公里

变化过程: “厄米尔”过去24小时由8级增强为10级

预报结论: 预计，“厄米尔”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月28日08时00分）

pocketbox

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A08 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 280757 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 983HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 171.4E
AT 280600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC AND SECONDARY
WHITE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREE
CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN WITH 0.65-0.75 WRAP ON
LOG 10 SPIRAL WITH WHITE BAND, RESULTING IN DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON PT THUS, YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS.

AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTs SOUTH OF 25S AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 22.8S 174.6E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 25.9S 178.8E MOV SE AT 21 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 29.7S 176.0W MOV SE AT 24 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 34.1S 169.5W MOV SE AT 27 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 201400UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	6 am February 28	2	21.0S	171.4E	85
+6hr	12 pm February 28	2	21.6S	172.7E	110
+12hr	6 pm February 28	2	22.8S	174.6E	140
+18hr	12 am March 1	2	24.1S	176.5E	165
+24hr	6 am March 1	2	25.9S	178.8E	195
+36hr	6 pm March 1	1	29.7S	176.0W	255
+48hr	6 am March 2	tropical low	34.1S	169.5W	315
+60hr	6 pm March 2	tropical low	39.1S	162.2W	405
+72hr	6 am March 3	tropical low	44.0S	154.0W	490

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A08 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 280822 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 983HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 171.4E AT
280600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC AND SECONDARY
WHITE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREE
CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN WITH 0.65-0.75 WRAP ON
LOG 10 SPIRAL WITH WHITE BAND, RESULTING IN DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON PT THUS, YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS.

AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTs SOUTH OF 25S AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 22.8S 174.6E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 25.9S 178.8E MOV SE AT 21 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 29.7S 176.0W MOV SE AT 24 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 34.1S 169.5W MOV SE AT 27 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 201400UTC.

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TC Warning Number 6 on Tropical Cyclone URMIL issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology
and Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at  3:22pm VUT Saturday 28 February 2026.

At 5:00pm local time today, Tropical Cyclone URMIL (990 hPa) Cat 1 was located at
21.3S 171.2E. Tropical Cyclone URMIL is positioned at the top left corner of the square
letter L, number 12 (L,12) of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking map. This
is about 290 KM southeast of Tanna. Tropical Cyclone URMIL
is moving in the southeast at 13 KM/HR in the past 3 hours.

Damaging Gale force winds of 90 KM/HR (50 knots) will continue to affect Tafea
PROVINCE today.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 28 Feb)          22.1S, 172.7E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 1 Mar)            22.9S, 174.2E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 1 Mar)           24.3S, 176.1E            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 1 Mar)            25.7S, 178.0E            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 2 Mar)            29.2S, 177.1W            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 2 Mar)            32.6S, 171.5W            60 KTS (110 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5am, 3 Mar)            36.8S, 165.5W            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5pm, 3 Mar)            41.5S, 158.8W            50 KTS (55 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfalls with flash flooding are expected over low lying areas and areas
close to river banks, including coastal flooding over TAFEA today. Very rough seas
with heavy to phenomenal swells are expected
over the area mention above.

Marine strong wind warning is current for Central and southern waters of Vanuatu.
High Seas wind warning is also current for all open waters of Vanuatu. People,
including sea going vessels are advised to take precautions.

Office of the NDMO advises the ALL CLEAR over TAFEA today.

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department will issue this bulletin as
the last warning bulletin on Tropical Cyclone URMIL.

People over TAFEA PROVINCE should listen to all Radio Outlets to get the latest
information on severe weather warnings that are current.

This warning is also available on VMGD's website www.meteo.gov.vu and facebook page:
Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/

	Time (VUT)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm February 28	1	21.3S	171.2E	75
+6hr	11 pm February 28	1	22.1S	172.7E	100
+12hr	5 am March 1	1	22.9S	174.2E	130
+18hr	11 am March 1	2	24.3S	176.1E	155
+24hr	5 pm March 1	2	25.7S	178.0E	165
+36hr	5 am March 2	2	29.2S	177.1W	165
+48hr	5 pm March 2	2	32.6S	171.5W	165
+60hr	5 am March 3	2	36.8S	165.5W	155
+72hr	5 pm March 3	tropical low	41.5S	158.8W	140

pocketbox

WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 20.8S 171.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 171.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 22.3S 174.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 25.3S 179.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 29.4S 175.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 172.5E.
28FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 280900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR
   
4. 007//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 20.8S 171.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 268 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 23P (URMIL) WITH A FULLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
    
19. LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
    
20. LIMITING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY, BUT POLEWARD AND
    
21. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS REMAIN STRONG. ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL
    
22. ANALYSIS REVEALS WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND
    
23. GOOD AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL
    
24. COLUMN. SOME DRIER AIR IS HOWEVER BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN THE VORTEX FROM
    
25. THE WEST AND NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    
26. CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 280232Z GW1 AMSR2 MICROWAVE
    
27. SUITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
28. CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
    
29. INTENSITY AIDS LISTED BELOW.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
    
34. EAST
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
39.    PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
40.    CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 280219Z
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 280530Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 280530Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-MINT: 56 KTS AT 280625Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 56 KTS AT 280630Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
48.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC URMIL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
62. SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER THE
    
63. PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A STR CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
    
64. EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
    
65. NEXT 12-24 HOURS, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLIGHT (5-10 KTS)
    
66. INTENSIFICATION. AROUND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL GET CLOSER TO A
    
67. PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN ITS SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
    
68. (STT). THE VWS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INCREASE, REACHING NEARLY 50
    
69. KTS AT TAU 36. SIMULTANEOUSLY, SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW
    
70. 26 C, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASED DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL RESULT IN
    
71. THE BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND. THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS
    
72. EXPECTED TO COMPLETE AT TAU 36, AS TC 23P BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED
    
73. WITHIN A EQUATORWARD EXTENSION OF A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHILE
    
74. MAINTAINING RELATIVELY HIGH (60-65 KTS) SURFACE WIND SPEEDS.
    
75. 
    
76. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    
77. AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TRACK, WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK AND
    
78. ALONG-TRACK VARIABILITY, RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL
    
79. JTWC FORECAST. AS FAR AS INTENSITY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
    
80. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL MAXIMUM WIND SPEED AMONG THE MODELS, WITH
    
81. COAMPS-TC AND GFS BEING A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN OTHER MEMBERS OF
    
82. THE CONSENSUS. ALL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER
    
83. THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH JUST 10 KTS OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. AFTER TAU
    
84. 24, NEARLY ALL MODELS SUGGEST RAPID WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS
    
85. STT, WITH DISSIPATION BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH, THE
    
86. JTWC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LAID WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
87. 
    
88. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
89.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
90.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
91. NNNN

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