LOW - 关岛东南95W - 5.7N 146.4E - JMA:LPA

Enceladus

FNV3 0512Z (11/50)

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 12Z系集继续有所反应

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JMA今天凌晨予想天气图预报+24h维持LPA，+48h升格TD

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 18Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 05N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z继续预报将北上掠过关岛，强度稍有发展

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 18Z系集继续有所反应

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 145E WEST SLOWLY.

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

Enceladus

FNV3 0518Z (19/50)

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7N
145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY WEAKLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPORADIC FLARING CONVECTION. A
052303Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SOME HIGHER
WINDS IN THE UPPER RIGHT QUADRANTS WITH SOME 15 KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND THE AMERICAN MODELS ARE SHOWING
A MORE INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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