约克角半岛四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 逐渐西行横穿澳大利亚北部 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

LsfyHarold

中层风切很大

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IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1334 UTC 18/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.8S
Longitude: 150.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (258 deg)
Speed of Movement: 14 knots (26 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 963 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  18/1800: 13.2S 149.4E:     030 (060):  090  (165):  959
+12:  19/0000: 13.5S 148.1E:     040 (080):  095  (175):  954
+18:  19/0600: 13.6S 146.8E:     050 (095):  105  (195):  943
+24:  19/1200: 13.6S 145.7E:     055 (100):  105  (195):  943
+36:  20/0000: 13.6S 143.7E:     060 (115):  085  (155):  963
+48:  20/1200: 13.5S 141.6E:     070 (130):  045  (085):  993
+60:  21/0000: 13.5S 139.3E:     070 (130):  060  (110):  984
+72:  21/1200: 13.6S 137.0E:     070 (135):  070  (130):  976
+96:  22/1200: 13.7S 132.4E:     090 (165):  030  (055): 1002
+120: 23/1200: 14.1S 128.5E:     100 (185):  030  (055): 1002
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) showing continued intensification and
maintaining a steady west southwest track.

WIth no useful recent microwave imagery, analysis position is based on animated
IR imagery with moderate confidence. Recent scatterometer passes only caught
the western periphery.  

IR imagery is indicative of an eye trying to form but an eye pattern analysis
has either not been possible or is not appropriate on most images.  An Embedded
Centre pattern analysis consistently yields a DT of 5.0 and MET and PAT are in
agreement based on a D+ trend. Objective analysis aids available for 1200 UTC
(1-min means): ADT 77 knots, AiDT 79 knots, DPRINT 71 knots. Intensity analysed
at 80 knots (10-min) which is slightly higher than the objective aids but
within error bounds.  

CIMSS wind shear analysis at 1200 UTC indicated 19 knots from the east
northeast. However with very warm sea surface temperatures above 28  C, the
system is likely to continue to slowly develop even if the shear remains
moderate.  Although there is dry air to the west there is no indication of it
affecting the inner core of the system and with the shear vector from the east
northeast it is unlikely to impact intensification.  

Steady intensification is forecast until the system nears the coast. The rate
of intensification may be aided from Thursday by the approach of a new upper
trough leading to an increase in upper divergence and poleward outflow. A
category 4 peak intensity is forecast.  

There is very good confidence in the westward tracks of Narelle, with the
subtropical ridge to the south the dominating steering mechanism. There
remains, however, some variation in how quickly Narelle moves west, and Narelle
may approach the north east Queensland coast as early as Thursday evening,
which is earlier than the current most likely forecast track.  

After crossing the east Queensland Coast Narelle is expected to continue to be
steered to the west by the subtropical ridge, moving back over waters of the
Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely overnight Friday or during Saturday. As
Narelle moves across the Cape York Peninsula it is likely to considerably
weaken, though is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Once over Gulf waters,
the environment continues to be favourable and re-intensification is forecast.
There is forecast to be enough time over the warm waters of the Gulf (SSTs are
around 30  C), with light wind shear, and sufficient deep moisture for Narelle
to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone again before crossing the eastern
coast of the Northern Territory.

Looking further ahead, after crossing the Northern Territory coast, Narelle is
expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity and continue its track
west, moving across the Top End and then the Kimberly as a tropical low.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1930 UTC.

---

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 10:49 pm EST on Wednesday 18 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle expected to bring severe impacts to Far North Queensland during Friday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

Watch Zone
Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas, extending across the Central Peninsula to Weipa and Kowanyama.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 10:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.8 degrees South 150.7 degrees East, estimated to be 660 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and 820 kilometres east of Coen.

Movement: west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is currently at category 3 intensity in the northern Coral Sea. Narelle is moving steadily to the west and will approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Cooktown. A severe impact is likely during Friday.

After crossing the northeast Queensland coast, most likely on Friday morning, Narelle is forecast to continue its westward path. As it crosses the Cape York Peninsula Narelle is likely to weaken, however, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Narelle will then continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is forecast to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone before impacting the Northern Territory.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 230 km/h are possible near the centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it crosses the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/hr are likely from south of Lockhart River to Cape Flattery from Thursday night and may extend south to Cooktown if Narelle takes a more southerly path.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr are likely between Lockhart River and Cooktown from Thursday evening, and may extend south to Port Douglas if Narelle takes a more southerly path.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr will also possibly extend across the Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Weipa and Kowanyama from Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible between Cape Melville and Port Douglas from Thursday evening, extending northwards and to inland areas west of Coen during Friday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is likely in an area of the Peninsula bounded by Lockhart River, Cape Flattery, Pormpuraaw, and Weipa during Friday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Port Douglas as Narelle approaches and crosses the coast. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that tides may approach the highest tide of the year during Friday.

Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. Any coastal residents in this area are specifically warned of a possible DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast.

Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
People between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation should take precautions and listen to the next advice.

-IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

People between Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas, extending across the Central Peninsula to Weipa and Kowanyama should stay informed and listen to the next advice.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am AEST Thursday 19 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm March 18	3	12.8S	150.7E	35
+6hr	4 am March 19	4	13.2S	149.4E	60
+12hr	10 am March 19	4	13.5S	148.1E	80
+18hr	4 pm March 19	4	13.6S	146.8E	95
+24hr	10 pm March 19	4	13.6S	145.7E	100
+36hr	10 am March 20	3	13.6S	143.7E	115
+48hr	10 pm March 20	1	13.5S	141.6E	130
+60hr	10 am March 21	2	13.5S	139.3E	130
+72hr	10 pm March 21	3	13.6S	137.0E	135

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WTPS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 150.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 150.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 13.5S 147.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 13.5S 145.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 13.4S 143.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 13.4S 141.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 13.4S 136.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 13.8S 131.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 14.6S 127.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 149.9E.
18MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
364 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
181200Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 181500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.0S 150.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 364 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TC NARELLE IS ANALYZED TO HAVE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24
    
18. HOURS FROM AN INTENSITY OF 60 KTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90
    
19. KTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
20. HIGHLY COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS MEASURING
    
21. COLDER THAN -80 C ENTIRELY SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
22. CENTER (LLCC). A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING SINCE
    
23. 181000Z. A 180621Z F18 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE
    
24. SYSTEM HAS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND AXISYMMETRIC. HOWEVER,
    
25. THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
    
26. LENDING UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT INNER STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX.
    
27. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
28. SHALLOW PINHOLE EYE FEATURE IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
    
29. INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY
    
30. ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES RANGING FROM T4.5-T5.5. CIMSS INTENSITY
    
31. ESTIMATES COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE CURRENT INTENSITY DUE TO THE
    
32. COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE,
    
33. CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS)
    
34. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
    
35. TEMPERATURES.
    
36. 
    
37. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED
    
38. ON THE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK.
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
41. POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
    
42. 
    
43. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
44.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
45.    KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
46.    ABRF: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
47.    CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 181200Z
    
48.    CIMSS AIDT: 79 KTS AT 181200Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 83 KTS AT 181230Z
    
50. 
    
51. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
52.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
53.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
54.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
55. 
    
56. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
57.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
58.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
59.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
60. 
    
61. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
62. 
    
63. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
64. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
65. 
    
66. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) HAS
    
67. TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
    
68. SOUTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITING
    
69. EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE STR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE CURRENT
    
70. STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
71. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12 A STR
    
72. CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
    
73. MECHANISM SHIFTING THE TRAJECTORY TO A NEARLY STRAIGHT WESTWARD
    
74. TRACK. INITIAL LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST BEFORE TAU 36
    
75. ALONG THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. TC NARELLE WILL THEN EMERGE OVER THE
    
76. GULF OF CARPENTARIA AROUND TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON A
    
77. WESTWARD TRACK WITH A SECOND LANDFALL FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72
    
78. IN THE VICINITY OF GROOTE EYLANDT. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK
    
79. ACROSS THE TOP END, SOUTH OF DARWIN, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
80. FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC NARELLE IS FORECAST TO
    
81. CONTINUE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK
    
82. INTENSITY AROUND 115-120 KTS. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VWS IS EXPECTED TO
    
83. SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CAPE
    
84. YORK PENINSULA PUTTING A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. TERRAIN
    
85. INTERACTION ALONG THE PENINSULA WILL CAUSE TC NARELLE TO RAPIDLY
    
86. WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL RECOVER WITHIN THE GULF OF
    
87. CARPENTARIA OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WITH A SECOND PEAK
    
88. INTENSITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 60 THAT IS NOT DEPICTED IN
    
89. THE WARNING DUE TO TEMPORAL RESTRICTIONS. ONCE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
    
90. INTERACT WITH THE EASTERN COAST OF THE TOP END, ANOTHER WEAKENING
    
91. TREND WILL ENSUE. TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN THE SYSTEM
    
92. WEAKENING TO 35 KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
93. 
    
94. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
    
95. GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO
    
96. TRACK THE VORTEX MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE.
    
97. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, THERE IS A MERE 30 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
    
98. 72, WITH AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 60 NM. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
    
99. ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASES TO 75 NM AT TAU 120, HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK
    
100. SPREAD INCREASES TO 170 NM WITH GALWEM AS THE SLOWEST MODEL AND
     
101. ECMWF AS THE FASTEST. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
     
102. MODIFIED CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM
     
103. CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT
     
104. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PEAK INTENSITIES
     
105. RANGING FROM 100-130 KTS AND NEARLY EVERY AVAILABLE RAPID
     
106. INTENSIFICATION (RI) AID HAS TRIGGERED. HAFS-A AND HWRF BOTH DEPICT
     
107. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RI AID
     
108. CONSENSUS (120 KTS). AFTER TAU 24, MODELS AGREE ON WEAKENING
     
109. THROUGH TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAUY 72 BEFORE
     
110. FURTHER WEAKENING. OF NOTE, COAMPS-TC (GFS BASED) HAS A
     
111. SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER TRACK SPEED THROUGH THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
     
112. AND IS THEREFORE SUGGESTING A MUCH HIGHER REINTENSIFICATION EVENT.
     
113. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE RI AID
     
114. CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, THEN CLOSE TO HAFS-A THROUGH THE
     
115. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
     
116. 
     
117. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
118.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
119.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
120.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
121.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
122. NNNN

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pocketbox

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 1:42 am EST on Thursday 19 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle expected to bring severe impacts to Far North Queensland during Friday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

Watch Zone
Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas, extending across the Central Peninsula to Weipa and Kowanyama.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 1:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 155 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 220 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 13.0 degrees South 150.0 degrees East, estimated to be 580 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and 740 kilometres east of Coen.

Movement: west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is currently at category 3 intensity in the northern Coral Sea. Narelle is moving steadily to the west and will approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Cooktown. A severe impact is likely during Friday.

After crossing the northeast Queensland coast, most likely on Friday morning, Narelle is forecast to continue its westward path. As it crosses the Cape York Peninsula Narelle is likely to weaken, however, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Narelle will then continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is forecast to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone before impacting the Northern Territory.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 230 km/h are possible near the centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it crosses the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/hr are likely from Lockhart River to Cape Flattery from Thursday night and may extend south to Cooktown if Narelle takes a more southerly path.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr are likely between Lockhart River and Cooktown from Thursday evening, and may extend south to Port Douglas if Narelle takes a more southerly path.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr will also possibly extend across the Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Weipa and Kowanyama from Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible between Cape Melville and Port Douglas from Thursday evening, extending northwards and to inland areas west of Coen during Friday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is likely in an area of the Peninsula bounded by Lockhart River, Cape Flattery, Pormpuraaw, and Weipa during Friday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Port Douglas as Narelle approaches and crosses the coast. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that tides may approach the highest tide of the year during Friday.

Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. Any coastal residents in this area are specifically warned of a possible DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast.

Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
People between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation should take precautions and listen to the next advice.

-IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

People between Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas, extending across the Central Peninsula to Weipa and Kowanyama should stay informed and listen to the next advice.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Thursday 19 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 am March 19	3	13.0S	150.0E	35
+6hr	7 am March 19	4	13.3S	148.7E	60
+12hr	1 pm March 19	4	13.6S	147.4E	80
+18hr	7 pm March 19	4	13.5S	146.2E	90
+24hr	1 am March 20	4	13.5S	145.2E	95
+36hr	1 pm March 20	3	13.5S	143.1E	115
+48hr	1 am March 21	2	13.4S	141.0E	125
+60hr	1 pm March 21	3	13.5S	138.6E	125
+72hr	1 am March 22	2	13.5S	136.3E	130

觀雲趣

https://science.nrlmry.navy.mil/ ... 72026?platforms=GPM
GPM 91H 91Color

Ragasa

IDQ20023
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 4:52 am EST on Thursday 19 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle expected to bring severe impacts to Far North
Queensland during Friday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

Watch zone: Kowanyama to Weipa.

Cancelled zone: Port Douglas.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South 149.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 515 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and 670 kilometres
east of Coen.
Movement: west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is currently at category 4 intensity in
the northern Coral Sea. Narelle is moving steadily to the west and will
approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and
Cooktown. A severe impact is likely during Friday.

After crossing the northeast Queensland coast, most likely on Friday morning,
Narelle is forecast to continue tracking westwards. Narelle is likely to
temporarily weaken as it crosses Cape York Peninsula, however it is expected to
remain a tropical cyclone. Narelle will then continue to move west across the
Gulf of Carpentaria, and is forecast to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone
before impacting the Northern Territory over the weekend.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 230 km/h are possible near the centre
of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it crosses the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/hr are likely from Lockhart River to Cape
Flattery from Thursday night and may extend south to Cooktown if Narelle takes
a more southerly path. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are possible near the centre of
Narelle as it moves further inland across Cape York Peninsula during Friday.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr are likely between Lockhart River
and Cooktown from Thursday evening, and may extend south to Cape Tribulation if
Narelle takes a more southerly path.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr will also possibly extend across
Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Weipa and Kowanyama from Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible between Cape
Melville and Cape Tribulation from Thursday evening, extending northwards and
to inland areas west of Coen during Friday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is likely
in an area of the Peninsula bounded by Lockhart River, Cape Flattery,
Pormpuraaw, and Weipa during Friday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Cape Tribulation as Narelle
approaches and crosses the coast. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that tides may approach the
highest tide of the year during Friday.

Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay are likely to rise significantly above the
normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. Any coastal
residents in this area are specifically warned of a possible DANGEROUS STORM
TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast.

Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula
between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce
MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
People between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation should take precautions and
listen to the next advice.

-IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

People between Weipa and Kowanyama, and adjacent inland areas of the Central
Peninsula, should stay informed and listen to the next advice.

- Stay informed by checking your local government  s Disaster Dashboards for
the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland
website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency
Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online
www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am AEST Thursday 19 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210.  The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 am March 19	4	13.2S	149.4E	30
+6hr	10 am March 19	4	13.5S	148.1E	50
+12hr	4 pm March 19	4	13.6S	146.8E	70
+18hr	10 pm March 19	4	13.5S	145.7E	85
+24hr	4 am March 20	4	13.5S	144.7E	90
+36hr	4 pm March 20	2	13.5S	142.7E	115
+48hr	4 am March 21	2	13.4S	140.4E	120
+60hr	4 pm March 21	3	13.5S	138.1E	125
+72hr	4 am March 22	2	13.5S	135.8E	135

1. IDQ20018
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1910 UTC 18/03/2026
   
5. Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
   
6. Identifier: 34U
   
7. Data At: 1800 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 13.2S
   
9. Longitude: 149.4E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: west southwest (257 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 12 knots (22 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 957 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (45 km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  19/0000: 13.5S 148.1E:     025 (050):  100  (185):  947
    
33. +12:  19/0600: 13.6S 146.8E:     035 (070):  105  (195):  942
    
34. +18:  19/1200: 13.5S 145.7E:     045 (085):  105  (195):  941
    
35. +24:  19/1800: 13.5S 144.7E:     050 (090):  105  (195):  941
    
36. +36:  20/0600: 13.5S 142.7E:     060 (115):  060  (110):  981
    
37. +48:  20/1800: 13.4S 140.4E:     065 (120):  055  (100):  985
    
38. +60:  21/0600: 13.5S 138.1E:     065 (125):  070  (130):  974
    
39. +72:  21/1800: 13.5S 135.8E:     070 (135):  055  (100):  985
    
40. +96:  22/1800: 13.7S 131.9E:     090 (165):  030  (055):  999
    
41. +120: 23/1800: 14.2S 128.5E:     095 (175):  030  (055):  999
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) has intensified to a category 4 system
    
44. and is maintaining a steady west southwest track.
    
45. 
    
46. Animated IR imagery indicates that Narelle has formed an eye, and the analysis
    
47. position has been assessed with high confidence. The analysis position also
    
48. agrees with an earlier OSCAT scatterometry pass at 1346 UTC, and with recent
    
49. GMI microwave imagery at 1828 UTC.
    
50. 
    
51. As mentioned, an eye has formed and an eye pattern yields a DT of 5.5 with a
    
52. surrounding grey shade of CMG, an eye temperature of W and a surrounding ring
    
53. of CMG. MET is 5.0 based on a D+ trend, with PAT being adjusted up to 5.5.
    
54. FT/CI are both 5.5. Objective analysis aids for 1800 UTC (1-min means): ADT 79
    
55. kt, AiDT 91 kt, DPRINT 105 kt, DMINT (1523UTC) 96 kt and SATCON 99 kt.
    
56. Intensity is set at 90 kt, based on subjective Dvorak and objective aids.
    
57. 
    
58. CIMMS wind shear analysis at 1200 UTC indicated 19 kt of shear from the east
    
59. northeast, however Narelle has continued to steadily intensify over the past 6
    
60. hours with lightning activity beginning to occur around the eye. It remains
    
61. over very warm sea surface temperatures above 28 degrees C, and there has been
    
62. no indication that dry air to the west has impacted the system.
    
63. 
    
64. Steady intensification is forecast until the system nears the coast which may
    
65. be aided by the approach of a new upper trough during Thursday, leading to an
    
66. increase in upper divergence and poleward outflow. A peak intensity of high-end
    
67. category 4 is forecast, with further intensification to category 5 possible.
    
68. 
    
69. There is very good confidence in the westward tracks of Narelle, with the
    
70. subtropical ridge to the south the dominating steering mechanism. There
    
71. remains, however, some variation in how quickly Narelle moves west, and Narelle
    
72. may approach the north east Queensland coast as early as late Thursday evening,
    
73. which is earlier than the current most likely forecast track.  
    
74. 
    
75. After crossing the east Queensland Coast Narelle is expected to continue to be
    
76. steered to the west by the subtropical ridge, moving back over waters of the
    
77. Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely overnight Friday or during Saturday. As
    
78. Narelle moves across the Cape York Peninsula it is likely to temporarily
    
79. weaken, before entering the Gulf of Carpentaria as a category 2 system.
    
80. Re-intensification is forecast in a favourable environment over the Gulf
    
81. waters, with SSTs around 30 degrees C, sufficient deep moisture, and moderate
    
82. wind shear. Narelle is forecast to intensify to severe tropical cyclone
    
83. intensity again before crossing the eastern coast of the Northern Territory
    
84. over the weekend.
    
85. 
    
86. After crossing the Northern Territory coast, Narelle is expected to weaken
    
87. below tropical cyclone intensity and continue to track westwards, moving across
    
88. the Top End and then the Kimberley as a tropical low. It is expected to move
    
89. off the Kimberley coast early to mid next week where it is forecast to
    
90. re-intensity into a tropical cyclone.
    
91. 
    
92. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
93. ==
    
94. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0130 UTC.
    

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ygsj24

IDQ20023
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 7:49 am EST on Thursday 19 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle expected to bring severe impacts to Far North
Queensland during Friday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

Watch zone: Western Cape York Peninsula between Weipa and Kowanyama, and
adjacent inland areas of the Central Peninsula.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 7:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 185 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 260 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 13.4 degrees South 148.7 degrees East,
estimated to be 440 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and 600 kilometres
east of Coen.
Movement: west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is currently at category 4 intensity in
the northern Coral Sea and is moving westwards towards the Queensland coast.
Narelle is forecast to cross the Queensland coast between Lockhart River and
Cooktown on Friday morning. A severe impact is likely.

After crossing the northeast Queensland coast, Narelle is forecast to continue
tracking westwards. Narelle is likely to temporarily weaken as it crosses Cape
York Peninsula, however it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Narelle
will then continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is forecast
to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone before impacting the Northern
Territory over the weekend.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 250 km/h are possible near the centre
of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it crosses the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/hr are likely from Lockhart River to Cape
Flattery from Thursday night and may extend south to Cooktown if Narelle takes
a more southerly path. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are possible near the centre of
Narelle as it moves further inland across Cape York Peninsula during Friday.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr are likely between Lockhart River
and Cooktown from Thursday evening, and may extend south to Cape Tribulation if
Narelle takes a more southerly path.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr will also possibly extend across
Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Weipa and Kowanyama from Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible between Cape
Melville and Cape Tribulation from Thursday evening, extending northwards and
to inland areas west of Coen during Friday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is likely
in an area of the Peninsula bounded by Lockhart River, Cape Flattery,
Pormpuraaw, and Weipa during Friday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Cape Tribulation as Narelle
approaches and crosses the coast. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that tides may approach the
highest tide of the year during Friday.

Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay are likely to rise significantly above the
normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. Any coastal
residents in this area are specifically warned of a possible DANGEROUS STORM
TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast.

Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula
between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce
MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
People between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation should take precautions and
listen to the next advice.

-IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

People between Weipa and Kowanyama, and adjacent inland areas of the Central
Peninsula, should stay informed and listen to the next advice.

- Stay informed by checking your local government  s Disaster Dashboards for
the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland
website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency
Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online
www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Thursday 19 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210.  The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	7 am March 19	4	13.4S	148.7E	30
+6hr	1 pm March 19	4	13.6S	147.4E	50
+12hr	7 pm March 19	5	13.6S	146.2E	70
+18hr	1 am March 20	5	13.6S	145.2E	85
+24hr	7 am March 20	5	13.6S	144.1E	90
+36hr	7 pm March 20	2	13.5S	142.1E	105
+48hr	7 am March 21	2	13.5S	139.8E	115
+60hr	7 pm March 21	3	13.5S	137.4E	115
+72hr	7 am March 22	1	13.7S	135.1E	130

Ragasa

SAR RCM-3 at 1947z

pocketbox

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0114 UTC 19/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.6S
Longitude: 147.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (254 deg)
Speed of Movement: 14 knots (26 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots (285 km/h)
Central Pressure: 935 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  19/0600: 13.7S 146.8E:     025 (050):  110  (205):  934
+12:  19/1200: 13.7S 145.7E:     035 (070):  110  (205):  934
+18:  19/1800: 13.7S 144.6E:     045 (085):  110  (205):  933
+24:  20/0000: 13.7S 143.6E:     050 (090):  100  (185):  944
+36:  20/1200: 13.6S 141.5E:     060 (110):  050  (095):  986
+48:  21/0000: 13.6S 139.1E:     065 (115):  065  (120):  976
+60:  21/1200: 13.6S 136.8E:     065 (120):  070  (130):  972
+72:  22/0000: 13.8S 134.4E:     070 (135):  040  (075):  993
+96:  23/0000: 14.2S 129.7E:     085 (155):  030  (055):  998
+120: 24/0000: 14.7S 125.2E:     095 (175):  030  (055):  998
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified to a category 5 system and is
maintaining a steady west southwest track.

The satellite signature of Narelle has improved considerably during the past 6
hours, and it now exhibits a small well-formed eye and a very cold Central
Dense Overcast. Position based on animated IR imagery with good confidence.

Dvorak analysis based on an eye pattern embedded in CMG. Eye temperature has
fluctuated between MG and LG. The DT has averaged 6.5 over the past 3 hours,
and has been used for the FT. FT/CI = 6.5. A 1947 UTC SAR pass suggested mean
10-minute average winds near 110 knots. Objective analysis aids for 0010 UTC
(1-min means): ADT 112 kt, AiDT 113 kt, DPRINT 110 kt, DMINT (2036 UTC) 114 kt,
MW sounders (2036 UTC) 115 kt and SATCON (2300 UTC) 122 kt. Intensity is set at
110 kt, consistent with subjective Dvorak, SATCON, and the earlier SAR
estimate.

CIMMS wind shear analysis at 2100 UTC indicates Narelle lies near the northern
edge of the upper ridge, with upper easterlies over the system contributing to
an analysed deep layer wind shear of 20-25 knots. This is offset by warm SSTs
along track (>28C), excellent poleward outflow, and the rapid westward motion
of the system. Moisture around the system remains good with no hints of dry air
encroachment. Narelle is therefore forecast to maintain category 5 intensity
until interaction with the Queensland coast prior to landfall produces some
weakening to category 4. However, a category 5 landfall remains feasible.  

A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia into the Coral Sea will be
the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There is very
good confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia, through
the Gulf of Carpentaria on the weekend where environmental conditions will be
similar and re-intensification to a severe tropical cyclone is forecast.
Narelle will then move across the Top End and off the Kimberley coast next
week, where redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is again likely.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0730 UTC.

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IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 11:50 am EST on Thursday 19 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle now category 5, bringing severe impacts to Far North Queensland during Friday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation, including Coen and Cooktown.

Watch Zone
Western Cape York Peninsula between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw, including Weipa and Aurukun.

Cancelled Zone
Kowanyama.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 5, sustained winds near the centre of 205 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 285 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 13.6 degrees South 147.9 degrees East, estimated to be 355 kilometres northeast of Cooktown and 505 kilometres east of Coen.

Movement: west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified to category 5 east of the Cape York Peninsula, and is moving westwards towards the Queensland coast. Narelle is forecast to cross the Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Cape Melville on Friday morning. A severe impact is very likely.

Narelle is forecast to cross over Cape York Peninsula as a tropical cyclone during Friday while weakening. Narelle will then continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is forecast to strengthen again to a severe tropical cyclone before impacting the Northern Territory over the weekend.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 250 km/h are possible near the centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it crosses the coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS will persist about the centre of Narelle for some distance inland.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are likely from Lockhart River to Cape Flattery from Thursday night and may extend south to Cooktown if Narelle takes a more southerly path. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are possible near the centre of Narelle as it moves across Cape York Peninsula during Friday.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are likely between Lockhart River and Cooktown from Thursday evening, and may extend south to Cape Tribulation if Narelle takes a more southerly path.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are also forecast to extent across Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw from Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation from Thursday evening, extending northwards and to inland areas west of Coen during Friday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is likely in an area of the Peninsula bounded by Lockhart River, Cape Flattery, Pormpuraaw, and Weipa during Friday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Cape Tribulation as Narelle approaches and crosses the coast. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that tides may approach the highest tide of the year during Friday.

Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. Any coastal residents in this area are specifically warned of a possible DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast.

Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
People between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation and adjacent inland areas should finalise preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours if safe to do so.

-IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

People between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw, and adjacent inland areas of the Western Peninsula, should stay informed and listen to the next advice.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm AEST Thursday 19 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am March 19	5	13.6S	147.9E	30
+6hr	4 pm March 19	5	13.7S	146.8E	50
+12hr	10 pm March 19	5	13.7S	145.7E	70
+18hr	4 am March 20	5	13.7S	144.6E	85
+24hr	10 am March 20	4	13.7S	143.6E	90
+36hr	10 pm March 20	2	13.6S	141.5E	110
+48hr	10 am March 21	3	13.6S	139.1E	115
+60hr	10 pm March 21	3	13.6S	136.8E	120
+72hr	10 am March 22	1	13.8S	134.4E	135

LsfyHarold

FY-4B