罗德里格斯岛东南热带气旋第13号“茵杜萨”(29S.Indusa) - 逐渐南下 - MFR:70KT JTWC:90KT

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-4 14:30

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-4 15:00 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 040641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/13/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 70.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/04 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/04/05 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/04/05 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 295 SW: 155 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/04/06 06 UTC: 35.7 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2026/04/06 18 UTC: 39.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0

72H: 2026/04/07 06 UTC: 42.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 175

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, INDUSA HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE-SHAPED PATTERN,
SHOWING MOMENTS OF GREATER OR LESSER CLARITY. USING A DETAILED EYE
ANALYSIS, A T-VALUE OF 4.5- CAN BE ESTIMATED, ACCURATELY REFLECTING
THE FLUCTUATIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE RING, THUS DEFINING A CI OF 4.5-.
ON THIS BASIS, A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 65 KT CAN THEREFORE BE
ESTIMATED, WHICH VALIDATES THE SAR-RCM1 MEASUREMENT OF 0038 UTC. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF INDUSAA  S OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE TOO
LOW. ANALYSIS OF INDUSAA  S WIND STRUCTURE REVEALS THAT THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT EXHIBITS WIND SPEEDS AT THE NEAR GALE AND GALE THRESHOLDS,
SUGGESTING THAT THE EXTENT OF THESE TWO THRESHOLDS SHOULD BE REDUCED.
AT 06UTC, INDUSA THEREFORE REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK: THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN,
EAST OF INDUS, FORCING IT ONTO A GENERALLY SOUTHERN TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND THEN MORE DECISIVELY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING
OVER THE EAST OF THE BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK, INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE SYSTEMA  S MONITORING, TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

AS REGARDS INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVOURABLE BUT STILL CONDUCTIVE TO INTENSIFICATION. WIND SHEAR IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS DRY AIR FROM HIGHER ALTITUDES MOVES CLOSER
TO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY
SPEEDING UP ITS MOVEMENT, OFFSETTING THE SHEAR. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, CERTAIN DETERMINISTIC AND AI MODELS FORECAST FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND THE RSMC HAS CHOSEN TO
FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE BY PREDICTING MAXIMUM INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, LEADING TO
CONTINUED WEAKENING. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY MONDAY, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN MORE THAN THREE DAYSA TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-4 15:56

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-4-4 18:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 70.2E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 70.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.5S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.4S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.8S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 70.1E.
04APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
040600Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 36
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.3S 70.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 726 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL,
CLOUD-COVERED EYE FEATURE, WHILE ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
REVEALS A DISTINCT PINHOLE EYE DIAMETER MEASURED AT APPROXIMATELY
10NM. BOTH MSI AND EIR, AUGMENTED BY A 040448Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS, INDICATE A HIGHLY COMPACT INNER CORE AND MINIATURE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS EXTENDING
PERIPHERALLY, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMVS) INDICATE
EXTREMELY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
THE GOES-IO EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER. AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES ARE CONSISTENT AT
T4.5, HOWEVER THE OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES (PRIMARILY ADT AND AIDT) ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE PINHOLE EYE AND PROVIDING ESTIMATES FAR TOO
LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS DERIVED FROM EXTRAPOLATION
FROM EARLIER SAR PEAK VMAX DATA, A 0047Z D-MINT ESTIMATE OF 88 KNOTS
AND AN OVERALL QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
IN THE EIR, PARTICULARLY THE BD-ENHANCEMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SSTS AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 040600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 56 KTS AT 040600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 88 KTS AT 040047Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 70 KTS AT 040530Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 36
HOURS WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (INDUSA) HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE STR TO THE EAST. IT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS,
AND GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHWARD WHILE SLOWING DOWN AS IT NEARS THE
WEAKEST STEERING GRADIENT AT THE RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 12, THEN
RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TIGHTENING STEERING GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE STR AND A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, INCREASING FROM
65-90 KNOTS UNDER HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, BUT TC
27P HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT 0600Z. NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS STEADILY INCREASING, BRINGING DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN WITH IT;
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES AFTER TAU 12, VORTEX COHERENCE MAY
BE SUSTAINED AS IT TEMPORARILY OUTPACES THE SHEAR. BY TAU 24,
INCREASING SHEAR MAGNITUDE WILL MARK THE ONSET OF A RAPID CYCLOLYSIS
PHASE. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME SHEARED BY TAU 24, WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ENVELOPING THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX AS IT IS
DISPLACED UNDER A STRONG JET STREAK. BY TAU 36, TC 29S WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A WARM-CORE SECLUSION TYPE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. BY TAU
36, TC 27P WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A WARM-CORE SECLUSION TYPE
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AS IT RACES POLEWARD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH DEPICTS A FAR
TO WIDE OF A POLEWARD TURN, ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONFINED TO A
50NM WIDE CROSS-TRACK ENVELOPE AT TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE
MIXED, WITH THE HAFS-A DEPICTING A VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
OF TC 27P, KEEPING IT ABOVE 50 KNOTS EVEN AS LATE AS 120 HOURS OUT.
THE COAMPS-TC AND HWRF ON THE OTHER HAND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
EXTREMELY RAPIDLY, DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THE DECAY-SHIPS
TAKES A MORE REASONABLE MIDDLE GROUND, AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE SHIPS AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

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pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-4 17:00

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、张增海  签发：许映龙  2026 年 04 月 04 日 18 时
“茵杜萨”向南偏西方向移动

时  间: 4日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “茵杜萨”，INDUSA

中心位置: 南纬20.3度，东经70.1度

强度等级: 热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 978百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋毛里求斯路易港东方向约1315公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“茵杜萨”由10级加强成12级

预报结论: 预计，“茵杜萨”将以每小时4公里左右的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度先维持然后减弱。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月4日14时00分）

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-4 20:30

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-4 21:20 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 041224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/13/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 70.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/05 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 0

24H: 2026/04/05 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SW: 155 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/04/06 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 350 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2026/04/06 12 UTC: 37.4 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2026/04/07 00 UTC: 40.9 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 175

72H: 2026/04/07 12 UTC: 43.3 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 175

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

WHILE THE EYE HAD ALREADY BEEN ENVELOPED BY LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS, HIGH-ALTITUDE CLOUDS CLOSED IN ON THE EYE,
LEADING TO AN EYE-SHAPED CLOUD CONFIGURATION THAT PROGRESSIVELY
EVOLVED INTO AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN. IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE
DATA, LOCATION IS DETERMINED BY INTERPOLATION AND MONITORING OF
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES, WHICH NONETHELESS REVEAL AN
ACCELERATION IN THE MOVEMENT. A DETAILED DVORAK ANALYSIS INDICATES A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH A CI OF 4.5+. IN THIS CONTEXT, INDUSA
REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 70 KT, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS
INTENSITY IS THE MAXIMUM INDUSA IS LIKELY TO REACH.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK: THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN, EAST OF THE INDUSA,
FORCING IT ONTO A GENERALLY SOUTHERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN
THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND THEN MORE DECISIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST,
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE EAST OF THE
BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK, INCREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE SYSTEM’S TRACKING PERIOD, TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

AS REGARDS INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE,
MEANING THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT MAXIMUM
INTENSITY. DEEP WIND SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS DRY UPPER-LEVEL
AIR MOVES CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY SPEEDING UP ITS MOVEMENT, OFFSETTING THE SHEAR.
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, SOME DETERMINISTIC AND AI MODELS FORECAST
THAT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, A
SCENARIO ADOPTED BY THE RSMC. THEREAFTER, THE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, LEADING TO A CONTINUED WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY MONDAY,
WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN BEFORE DISSIPATING IN MORE THAN THREE
DAYS’ TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-5 04:20

WTIO30 FMEE 041835
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/13/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 70.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/05 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/04/05 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/04/06 06 UTC: 36.0 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 295 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 100 NW: 65

48H: 2026/04/06 18 UTC: 40.0 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2026/04/07 06 UTC: 42.7 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 185

72H: 2026/04/07 18 UTC: 43.7 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 185

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=4.0 CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, INDUSA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN LITTLE
CHANGE, WITH ITS CENTER BURIED WITHIN THE CLOUD MASS AROUND A COMPACT
CDO. THE CENTER'S POSITION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN IN THE
ABSENCE OF RELIABLE OBSERVATIONS, BESIDES THE 1314Z WSFM PASS. THE
LATTER SHOWED A DETERIORATION OF THE INNER STRUCTURE, WITH THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EYEWALL IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
IN THE ABSENCE OF A RELIABLE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE, THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 70 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK: THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE INDUSA, FORCING IT ONTO A
GENERALLY SOUTHERN TRACK OVERNIGHT. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY BEND TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND THEN MORE
DECISIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE EAST OF THE BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK, INCREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

AS REGARDS INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO
WORSEN. DEEP WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY SPEEDING UP ITS
MOVEMENT, OFFSETTING PARTIALLY THE SHEAR. THIS LIMITS TEMPORARILY
INDUSA WEAKENING. THEREAFTER, THE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES,
LEADING TO A STRONGER WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY MONDAY DUE TO COLDER
WATERS, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-5 04:20

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-4-5 06:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 23.7S 70.3E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 70.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.7S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.7S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 70.4E.
04APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNING AT 050900Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 23.7S 70.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 755 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 20 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY
COMPACT VORTEX WITH AN IRREGULARLY SHAPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO). THE PINHOLE EYE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY APPARENT HAS NOW BECOME
ENTIRELY CLOUD-FILLED. THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM
EXHIBITS A SHARP TRANSITION AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE CDO, INDICATIVE
OF THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DISPLAY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN ANIMATED EIR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND A LACK OF
WIND SPEED DATA. AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T4.0-4.5 SUPPORT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. DESPITE THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS ANALYZED AS UNFAVORABLE DUE TO
HIGH VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(26-27 C).
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
FIMP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 041800Z
CIMSS AIDT: 65 KTS AT 041800Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 75 KTS AT 041800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 25-30 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (INDUSA) HAS ROUNDED
THE RIDGE AXIS AND STARTED TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
IT IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 12, THEN FURTHER ACCELERATE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND OF TC INDUSA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24 IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING VWS AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 12 AS
IT ENTERS COOLER (LESS THAN 26 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
BECOMES ENGULFED BY DRY AIR. TRANSITION TO A WARM-CORE SECLUSION
TYPE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL BE COMPLETE AROUND TAU 24 AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 24 C.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENTLY RECURVING TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 70 NM AT TAU 24. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONG
THE SUITE OF MODELS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN. THE
MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-5 08:30

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-5 09:10 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 050033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/13/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.6 S / 70.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 21 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/05 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2026/04/06 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 100

36H: 2026/04/06 12 UTC: 37.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2026/04/07 00 UTC: 41.6 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 185

60H: 2026/04/07 12 UTC: 43.5 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 185

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=3.5 CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, INDUSA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
SHEARED PATTERN. THE 2034Z AMSR2 PASS CONFIRMS THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER IS ON THE EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A 20 TO 30 NM TILT. AN
EYEWALL IS STILL PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS
SITUATION IS LINKED TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR. IN THE ABSENCE OF A RELIABLE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE, THE INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 65 KT IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK: THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE INDUSA, FORCING IT ONTO A
GENERALLY SOUTHERN TRACK OVERNIGHT. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY BEND TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND THEN MORE
DECISIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE EAST OF THE BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK, INCREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

AS REGARDS INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO
WORSEN. DEEP WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS, AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, LEADING TO A STRONGER
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BY MONDAY DUE TO COLDER WATERS, WHILE CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-5 11:45

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、张增海  签发：许映龙  2026 年 04 月 05 日 10 时
“茵杜萨”向偏南方向移动

时  间: 5日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “茵杜萨”，INDUSA

中心位置: 南纬25.6度，东经70.1度

强度等级: 热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 979百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋毛里求斯路易港东南方向约1420公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“茵杜萨”维持12级

预报结论: 预计，“茵杜萨”将以每小时30-40公里的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月5日08时00分）

“迈拉”在所罗门海生成

时  间: 5日08时

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “迈拉”，MALIA

中心位置: 南纬9.2度，东经154.4度

强度等级: 热带气旋（2级）

最大风力: 10级，25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 986百帕

参考位置: 距离莫尔斯比港偏东方向约800公里

变化过程: “迈拉”4日夜间在所罗门海生成

预报结论: 预计未来两天，“迈拉”将以每小时4公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，后期转向西南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。

图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月5日08时00分）

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-5 15:56

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-4-5 18:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 27.6S 70.4E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S 70.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.0S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 36.1S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 28.7S 70.8E.
05APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 847
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z
IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNING AT 052100Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 27.6S 70.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 847 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 19 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
DECOUPLING VORTEX, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX BECOMING INCREASINGLY EXPOSED.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL
CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR RAPIDLY MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALONG THE SHEAR VECTOR, HELPING TO SMOTHER WHAT
REMAINS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AFTER THE HIGH
SHEAR ALREADY DECAPITATED THE VORTEX. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, BIASED HIGH IN LIGHT OF THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER SAR PASS WHICH
REVEALED A HIGHER WIND SPEED THAN ESTIMATED BY THE DVORAK-BASED
TECHNIQUES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY DETERIORATED AND
ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH VERY HIGH NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR (EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS), RAPIDLY COOLING SSTS (DOWN TO 24-25C),
AND RAPID DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, OVERWHELMING THE ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH IS STILL IN PLACE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
FIMP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 050600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 49 KTS AT 050600Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 050600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 30+ KTS
SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: HAVING ROUNDED THE STR AXIS YESTERDAY,
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (INDUSA) HAS TRACED A GRADUAL ARC TOWARDS
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. NOW
POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE STR, AND WITHIN THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN EXTREMELY STRONG AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST, TC 29S WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING
INTENSITY, NOW THAT THE VORTEX IS DECOUPLED, BEING SMOTHERED BY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR ALOFT AND MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, IT
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN THE EARLY PHASES OF EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND UNDERGOES
FRONTOGENESIS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH ALL AVAILABLE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS CONFINED TO A NARROW TRACK ENVELOPE OF JUST 50NM, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATED STEADY TO RAPID
WEAKENING. WHILE THE DECAY-SHIPS IS LIKELY A BIT TOO FAST IN
DISSIPATING TC 29S, THE HAFS-A, HWRF AND COAMPS-TC ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN A SLOWER BUT MORE STEADY WEAKENING AND THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THESE MODELS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-5 16:00

WTIO30 FMEE 050715
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/13/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.0 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 23 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/05 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 110

24H: 2026/04/06 06 UTC: 35.8 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 295 SW: 140 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 100 NW: 65

36H: 2026/04/06 18 UTC: 39.7 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 185

48H: 2026/04/07 06 UTC: 43.0 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 205

60H: 2026/04/07 18 UTC: 44.8 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=3.5 CI=4.0

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS KEPT DETERIORATING DUE TO
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. THE SMOS SWATH AT 0145Z SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 65 KT,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE, HOWEVER, THE
DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN DUE TO INCREASED WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS A WEAKENING, AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.

REGARDING THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRACK SOUTH
-SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE EAST OF THE BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK IS LOW, INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

AS REGARDS INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO
WORSEN. DEEP WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS, AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, LEADING TO A STRONGER
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BY MONDAY DUE TO COLDER WATERS, WHILE CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

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罗德里格斯岛东南热带气旋第13号“茵杜萨”(29S.Indusa) - 逐渐南下 - MFR:70KT JTWC:90KT

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