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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-5 22:30 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 9.5S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 9.6S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 9.6S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 9.5S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 9.5S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 9.9S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 10.9S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 154.7E.
05APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
051200Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 051500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
- 004//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 9.3S 154.6E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 687 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM
- RELATIVELY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WHICH HAS
- REMAINED FOR THE MOST PART UNCHANGED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. WHILE
- AN EYE HAS YET TO APPEAR IN THE CDO, A 050753Z WSF-M COLOR-ENHANCED
- 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALED A WELL-FORMED MICROWAVE EYE IS PRESENT UNDER
- THE CDO. ONE POSSIBLE REASON FOR THE LACK OF A FASTER PACE OF
- INTENSIFICATION IS THE PRESENCE OF SOME EVIDENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR,
- EVIDENCED BY A MOAT BETWEEN RAIN BANDS IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
- WEDGING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE EYE FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY,
- MESOSCALE MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH
- (20-25 KNOT) MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IF PRESENT, WOULD ALSO
- INHIBIT A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. EVEN WITH THESE NEGATIVE
- FACTORS, TC 30P HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
- THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WITH THE
- WSF-M IMAGE PROVIDING THE ONLY LOOK UNDER THE HOOD. THE INITIAL
- INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS WELL, BASED ON A
- BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED
- BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SSTS,
- MODERATE WESTERLY OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, OFFSET
- BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND MODERATE TO HIGH MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING AND BALANCED STEERING
- PATTERN, WITH A DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ALONG THE
- EQUATOR, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- ABRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 051130Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 65 KTS AT 051130Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 86 KTS AT 050754Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 88 KTS AT 051200Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE TO HIGH MID-LEVEL SHEAR.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 30P HAS MAINTAINED A
- QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND REMAINS TRAPPED
- IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THERE ARE
- AS OF YET NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING
- PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS AND TC 30P WILL MEANDER SLOWLY
- AROUND THE SOLOMON SEA THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. THE FORECAST CALLS
- FOR A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH TAU 36, THEN A TURN
- NORTHWARD BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE TRACK
- WILL BE BOTH HIGHLY ERRATIC AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, THOUGH THE SYSTEM
- IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY SMALL AREA THROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU
- 72, THE NER TO THE NORTH MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH
- ASSOCIATED WITH TC 31P NEAR FIJI MOVES AWAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST,
- WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STR OVER AUSTRALIA TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE
- SOUTH OF TC 30P. BEYOND TAU 96, THE STR OVER AUSTRALIA MOVES
- QUICKLY EASTWARD, POSITIONING ITSELF TO THE SOUTH OF TC 30P. THIS
- EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN WILL ALLOW TC 30P TO BE EJECTED
- WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72, ULTIMATELY TRANSITING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST
- TIP OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- REGARDING INTENSITY, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
- WEAKEN IN THE NEAR-TERM, AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
- SLACKEN, ALLOWING THE VORTEX TO FULLY ALIGN. ONCE THIS OCCURS, THE
- SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY (RI), TO A PEAK OF 110
- KNOTS BY TAU 36. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE REGION IS HIGH (125-150
- KJ PER CM2), SO THE WARM WATER IS DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ABOUT 36
- HOURS OF UPWELLING BEFORE THE COOL WATERS REACH THE SURFACE.
- BEGINNING AT TAU 48, THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS AS IT LOSES ITS
- ENERGY SOURCE. BY TAU 72, TC 30P WILL REACH ITS MINIMUM AND AS IT
- BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE COOL UPWELLED POOL, IT
- WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ONCE MORE. HOWEVER, PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN
- AND A MARGINAL INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL SERVE TO CAP THE INTENSITY
- THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SIGNIFICANT
- DISAGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE LONGER-RANGE FORECAST TAUS.
- THROUGH TAU 48, THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, AS WELL AS BOTH
- GEFS AND ECEPS, DEPICT A SLOWLY MEANDERING, BUT GENERALLY EASTWARD
- TRAJECTORY. THE AI MODELS (EC-AIFS, GDM AND THE AI CONSENSUS) BEGIN
- TO DEVIATE EQUATORWARD AND BREAK FROM THE PACK BY TAU 48. BY TAU
- 72, THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS TRACKERS LOOP THE SYSTEM BACK TOWARDS
- WEST OR SOUTHWEST WHILE THE AI MODELS CONTINUE THEIR TRACK
- EQUATORWARD. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE AI MODELS ARE
- ARRAYED IN A FAN HEADED WEST-NORTHWEST FURTHER INTO THE SOLOMON
- SEA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS (ECMWF, ECEPS, GFS, GEFS,
- NAVGEM, EGRR AND GALWEM) FAN OUT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY,
- WITH A 210NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND GEFS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
- AND THE NAVGEM ON THE SOUTHERN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE
- TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 96, THEN MUCH SLOWER, IN A BLEND
- BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GEFS AT TAU 120. CONFIDENCE IS LOW,
- ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WIDE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
- INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED. NEARLY EVERY RI AID IS TRIGGERED,
- DEPICTING A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 110-130 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
- MEANWHILE, THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
- ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE HAFS-A IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
- TWO EXTREMES. AFTER THE PEAK AT TAU 36, THE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT, WITH
- THE SHIPS, GFS AND CONSENSUS INDICATING A FLAT INTENSITY TREND
- THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WHILE THE COUPLED MODELS
- DEPICT A SHARP WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE RESUMING A SLIGHT
- INTENSIFICATION. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED GENERALLY NEAR THE
- HAFS-A, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TREND WILL
- IN LARGE PART BE DRIVEN BY THE FORECAST TRACK, CONFIDENCE IN WHICH
- IS LOW.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: qiqi
发表于 2026-4-5 11:45
