TCFA - 关岛东南93W - 7.7N 149.7E - 逐渐西行，数值支持发展 - JMA:GW

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As of 2:00 AM today, 05 May 2026, a Low Pressure area (LPA 05a) is being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, another Low Pressure area (LPA 05b) is being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and now has a "HIGH" chance of developing into a Tropical Depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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JMA今天凌晨予想天气图预报+24h维持LPA，+48h升格TD

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JMA 18Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 150E WEST SLOWLY.

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GFS 18Z继续稍微调强，巅峰约992百帕

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JTWC 00Z分析T1.5

TPPN10 PGTW 050029
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (W OF CHUUK)
B. 04/2330Z
C. 7.68N
D. 149.31E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

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SSD 00Z分析升至T2.0

TXPQ23 KNES 050050
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)
B.  04/2330Z
C.  9.2N
D.  150.4E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT=2.0. FT
BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

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ABPW10 PGTW 050100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/050100Z-050600ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.5N 151.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM WEST
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND INCREASING FORMATIVE BANDING IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS IT GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATES, HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.  ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN FAVOR OF A MORE RAPID AND INTENSE CONSOLIDATION WHEREAS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM//
NNNN

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NRL显示风速由15kt调升至20kt

93W INVEST 260505 0000 7.7N 149.7E WPAC 15 1006
↓↓↓
93W INVEST 260505 0000 7.7N 149.7E WPAC 20 1005

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ECMWF 18Z系集

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今天凌晨HY-2B及HY-2C风场扫描