马里亚纳群岛2604号超强台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 风眼快速打开清空，或重创塞班岛 - NMC:70m/s JMA:115KT JTWC:160KT

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析降至T6.5/7.0

TXPQ22 KNES 131825
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  13/1730Z
C.  13.6N
D.  147.1E
E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T6.5/7.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS IN
E# OF 5.5 AND EADJ OF +1.0 FOR A DT OF 6.5. PARTIAL 1521Z AMSR2 PASS
STRONGLY SUGGESTS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS. EYE TEMP +21 C AND APROX 15 NM IN
DIAMETER. POLEWARD AND EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS WELL-DEFINED. MET=7.0
AND PT=6.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T7.0/7.5

TPPN10 PGTW 132059
A. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 13/2030Z
C. 13.89N
D. 146.88E
E. ONE/GK2A
F. T7.0/7.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. MET
YIELDS 7.0. PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   13/1521Z  13.41N  147.03E  AMS2
   13/1758Z  13.70N  146.98E  SSMS
   BALMER

davidtreesea

把脉用大腿 发表于 2026-4-13 18:48
4月就出超顶级，，那今年789不知道出什么怪物？

7 8 9不行  怪物都是11月出  比如海燕

hei

SPECI PGSN 140101Z AUTO 03047G73KT 1SM RA BR BKN009 OVC015 26/25 A2890 RMK AO2 PK WND 04073/0101 P0003 T02560250 TSNO $

TAF PGSN 132341Z 1400/1424 03050G70KT 1SM +SHRA SCT008 BKN012 OVC020
  FM140200 05070G85KT 1SM +SHRA BKN010 OVC020
  FM140600 09095G115KT 1SM +SHRA BKN010 OVC020
  PROB30 1406/1410 1SM +TSRA BKN012 OVC020CB
  FM141000 270110G135KT 1SM +SHRA BKN010 OVC018
  FM141500 23095G115KT 1SM +SHRA BKN010 OVC018

塞班島機場天氣預報預期風眼直接過境

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z预报将在145E附近转向北上

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z分析DT6 MET7 PT7 FT6 CI7.5

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析降至T6.0/7.0

TXPQ22 KNES 140006
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  13/2330Z
C.  14.2N
D.  146.6E
E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T6.0/7.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/GMI
H.  REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN E#
OF 5.0 AND EADJ OF +1.0 FOR A DT OF 6.0. TIMELY 2258Z GMI PASS SHOWED
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS. EYE TEMP +17 C AND APROX 17 NM IN DIAMETER. STRONG
POLEWARD AND EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS PRESENT. MET=7.0 AND PT=6.5. FT
BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    13/2258Z 14.1N 146.6E GMI
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析降至T6.5/7.0

TPPN10 PGTW 140015
A. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 13/2330Z
C. 14.18N
D. 146.66E
E. ONE/GK2A
F. T6.5/7.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS AN E#
OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET
YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   13/2256Z  14.02N  146.65E  GPMI
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 18Z系集