马里亚纳群岛2604号超强台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 风眼快速打开清空，或重创塞班岛 - NMC:70m/s JMA:115KT JTWC:160KT

红豆棒冰冰

HKO 06Z开始在天气图上标注风速，06Z定强210km/h，12Z定强205km/h

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 18Z分析DT6 MET6 PT5.5 FT6 CI7

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析维持T5.5/6.0

TXPQ22 KNES 141802
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  14/1730Z
C.  15.1N
D.  145.4E
E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T5.5/6.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG RING AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS
A DT OF 5.5 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET AND PT ARE
5.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T6.0/6.0

TPPN10 PGTW 141815
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 14/1730Z
C. 15.10N
D. 145.44E
E. ONE/GK2A
F. T6.0/6.0/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   14/1600Z  15.12N  145.57E  ATMS
   14/1603Z  15.02N  145.45E  AMS2
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

HKO 18Z降至195km/h

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析降至T5.5/6.0

TPPN10 PGTW 142113
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 14/2030Z
C. 15.25N
D. 145.39E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T5.5/6.0/W1.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG, AND ADDED
0.5 FOR BF, TO YIELD A DT OF 5.5. MET YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 5.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   14/1600Z  15.12N  145.57E  ATMS
   14/1603Z  15.02N  145.45E  AMS2
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z继续预报将在145E附近转向北上

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T5.5/6.0

TPPN10 PGTW 142351
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 14/2330Z
C. 15.45N
D. 145.24E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   14/2013Z  15.23N  145.35E  SSMS
   14/2052Z  15.22N  145.35E  MMWI
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z分析DT5.5 MET5.5 PT5.5 FT5.5 CI6.5