阿拉弗拉海热带低压33U(32P)

ygsj24

AXAU01 ADRM 101911
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1911 UTC 10/05/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 33U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 8.2S
LONGITUDE: 137.6E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 45NM (85 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH SOUTHEAST (157 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 4 KNOTS (7 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 30 KNOTS (55 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1006 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 120 NM (220 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  11/0000:  8.4S 137.7E:     055 (105):  030  (055): 1002
+12:  11/0600:  8.6S 138.0E:     065 (115):  030  (055): 1003
+18:  11/1200:  8.6S 137.7E:     065 (115):  030  (055): 1002
+24:  11/1800:  8.6S 137.5E:     070 (125):  030  (055): 1002
+36:  12/0600:  8.4S 136.9E:     085 (160):  025  (045): 1004
+48:  12/1800:  8.3S 136.2E:     100 (185):  025  (045): 1003
+60:  13/0600:  7.9S 135.1E:     110 (205):  025  (045): 1003
+72:  13/1800:  7.4S 134.1E:     135 (245):  020  (035): 1005
+96:  14/1800:  5.8S 132.4E:     145 (265):  020  (035): 1005
+120: 15/1800:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 33U, NEAR THE COAST OF WEST PAPUA, IS SHOWING SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN STRUCTURE.

POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 1526Z OCEANSAT-3 OSCAT PASS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW, AS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ISN'T WELL-DEFINED.

DVORAK DT OF 2.0 BASED ON A CURVATURE OF 0.25 WITH WHITE OR COLDER CONVECTION.
MET IS 1.5 BASED ON S TREND WITH PAT ADJUSTED TO 2.0. FT/CI 2.0. INTENSITY IS
30 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE 1526Z OSCAT PASS SHOWING AN AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRE (A SMALL AREA OF GALES ARE SUSPECTED TO BE RAIN
AFFECTED). THESE STRONG WINDS APPEARS TO BE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN AND ENHANCED BY
THE DEEP CONVECTION, WITH WINDS AROUND THE REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEM 15-20 KNOTS.
THE ONLY OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE D-PRINT (27 KTS (1-MIN) AT 1800 UTC AND D-MINT (26
KNOTS (1-MIN) AT 0853 UTC).

THERE ARE ASPECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT THAT ARE FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
33U, WITH AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, WARM WATERS AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST PROVIDING GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, THERE HAVE BEEN MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE,
RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY TILT WITH HEIGHT. THESE WINDS APPEARED TO
HAVE EASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND IF THIS CONTINUES 33U MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT IS SHORT LIVED. FROM
MONDAY THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER 33U, AND DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BE INGESTED INTO THE
CENTRE. 33U SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK.

WITH 33U STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP, GALES ARE NO LONGER FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, WITH THE MAXIMUM FORECAST INTENSITY NOW CAPPED AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THESE STRONGEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IF CONVECTION REMAINS INTENSE, THERE MAY BE
PERIODS WHERE THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH DO REACH GALE FORCE DURING SUNDAY OR ON
MONDAY MORNING.

OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TOWARDS THE SOUTH, WITH
33U SITUATED NEAR THE COL BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES
ON MONDAY, 33U WILL BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTH EASTERLY TRADE FLOW. WHILE FORECAST MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO, THERE ARE A FEW THAT MAINTAIN A WEAKER
TROPICAL LOW THAT MOVES OVER PAPUA AND DISSIPATES.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 11/0130 UTC.=

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z预报强度高于GFS，+33h气压下降至约994百帕

红豆棒冰冰

ygsj24 发表于 2025-5-11 04:45
AXAU01 ADRM 101911
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION

BOM 18Z风速维持30KT，参考了OSCAT风场

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS10 PGTW 102052
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93P (SE OF ARU ISLANDS)
B. 10/2030Z
C. 8.66S
D. 137.21E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .3 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 2.0. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

ygsj24

WTPS21 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 100 NM RADIUS OF 8.5S 137.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 102220Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 137.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 238NM NORTH
OF GOVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
101815Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A SLOW SOUTHWARD
TRACK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DEPCITS A WESTWARD TRACK AND
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT IS SHORT, DUE TO
INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU 24.MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112230Z.
//
NNNN

---

ABPW10 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102230Z-110600ZMAY2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221ZMAY2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 238NM NORTH
OF GOVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
101815Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A
SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DEPCITS A
WESTWARD TRACK AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT IS
SHORT, DUE TO INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU
24.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 102230)
FOR FURTH DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.9S 156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL 101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 94P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS
IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SEE REF B () FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.6S 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 171.0E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING
VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A
101030Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST EASTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WIND FIELD AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW. SEE REF C () FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC及SSD 00Z分析均升至T2.0

TPPS10 PGTW 102341
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93P (SE OF ARU ISLANDS)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 8.73S
D. 137.81E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS A 1.5. PT AGREES WITH
DT. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

TXPS27 KNES 102350
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93P)
B.  10/2330Z
C.  8.5S
D.  137.3E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. 2123Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS
SOLID BANDING S AND W QUADS. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW GOOD S AND W QUADS. MET AND
PT=2.5. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING FT CHG TO 0.5 IN 6 HR WHEN PREV
FT <2.0. SYSTEM LIKELY A BIT STRONGER THAN FT INDICATES.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 18Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

Forecast description
Tropical Low 33U
Tropical low developing in the northern Arafura Sea.

• Tropical Low 33U remains slow moving in the northern Arafura Sea, near the coast of West Papua.
• There is a Low risk 33U strengthens into a tropical cyclone today, increasing to Moderate on Monday.
• By Tuesday conditions become less favourable, and 33U is forecast to weaken.
• 33U is expected to remain north of the Northern Territory and not directly impact the Top End coast.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 12:50 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Tue 13 May 12:00 am

Tue 13 May 12:00 pm

Wed 14 May 12:00 am

Wed 14 May 12:00 pm

Thu 15 May 12:00 am

Thu 15 May 12:00 pm

Fri 16 May 12:00 am

Fri 16 May 12:00 pm

Sat 17 May 12:00 am

Sat 17 May 12:00 pm

Sun 18 May 12:00 am

Tropical Low 33U

15% Low

25% Moderate

10% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

Tropical Low 34U

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

10% Low

15% Low

15% Low

15% Low

15% Low

10% Low

10% Low

10% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

ygsj24

AXAU01 ADRM 110155
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 0155 UTC 11/05/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 33U
DATA AT: 0000 UTC
LATITUDE: 8.7S
LONGITUDE: 138.2E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 15NM (30 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH SOUTHEAST (154 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 6 KNOTS (10 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 50 NM (95 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1006 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 110 NM (205 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  11/0600:  8.4S 137.9E:     040 (080):  035  (065):  997
+12:  11/1200:  8.0S 137.7E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  997
+18:  11/1800:  7.8S 137.6E:     060 (110):  035  (065):  997
+24:  12/0000:  7.6S 137.3E:     065 (120):  035  (065):  997
+36:  12/1200:  7.5S 136.6E:     085 (160):  030  (055): 1000
+48:  13/0000:  7.4S 135.9E:     115 (210):  025  (045): 1003
+60:  13/1200:  7.0S 135.3E:     130 (240):  020  (035): 1005
+72:  14/0000:  6.4S 133.8E:     120 (220):  020  (035): 1006
+96:  15/0000:  4.5S 131.5E:     140 (260):  020  (035): 1006
+120: 16/0000:  3.5S 129.3E:     165 (305):  020  (035): 1006
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 33U, NEAR THE COAST OF WEST PAPUA, HAS SHOWN IMPROVED STRUCTURE
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS NOW WELL DEFINED
AND HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION, WITH THE OVERALL TILT OF THE
SYSTEM DECREASING. POSITION BASED ON 00 UTC ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

DVORAK DT OF 2.5 BASED ON A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.55 WRAP, CONSISTENT WITH
A SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE CENTRE WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. MET IS 2.0 BASED ON A 24-HOUR S TREND WITH PAT ADJUSTED TO 2.5. FT
= CI = 2.5. INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE 00 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWING
A SMALL AREA OF GALES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

THERE ARE ASPECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT THAT ARE FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
33U, WITH AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, WARM WATERS AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST PROVIDING GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. PROXIMITY
TO LAND IS CURRENTLY THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER NORTHERLY WIND
SHEAR FROM AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
BECOME MORE UNFAVOURABLE ON MONDAY, AFTER WHICH 33U SHOULD WEAKEN. IN THE
MEANTIME, INTERMITTENT GALES MAY CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WITH 33U SITUATED
NEAR THE COL BETWEEN TWO WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGES. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES ON
MONDAY, THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS AMONGST FORECAST MODELS THAT 33U WILL BECOME A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTH EASTERLY TRADE FLOW.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 11/0730 UTC.=

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描显示中心西南侧及东南侧有成片35kt风旗