MEDIUM - 印度以西AS 01(93A) - 16.8N 73.3E

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 00Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

IMD今天下午报文表示阿拉伯海中东部已经形成低压区，在接下来的36小时内可能加强为低压，此后可能进一步加强

Under the influence of the upper air cyclonic circulation over Eastcentral Arabian Sea off North
Karnataka-Goa coasts, a low-pressure area formed over Eastcentral Arabian Sea off south
Konkan-Goa coasts at 0000 UTC and persisted over same region at 0300 UTC of today, the 22nd
May, 2025. It is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify further into a depression during next
36 hours. There is also possibility of its further intensification thereafter.
Associated scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense
convection over eastcentral Arabian Sea, south Konkan. Minimum cloud top temperature -60℃ to
-85℃.
Scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay
over eastcentral Arabian Sea off Maharashtra coast. Scattered low and medium clouds with
embedded moderate to intense convection lay over westcentral Arabian Sea, south Arabian
Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, Maldives & Comorin area.

fy6

JTWC 09Z 升T1.5

TPIO10 PGTW 220907
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (WEST OF INDIA)
B. 22/0830Z
C. 17.18N
D. 70.64E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. MET RETURNS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   DARLOW

fy6

卫星云图
05/22 1100Z

fy6

JTWC 12Z 降为T1.0

TPIO10 PGTW 221157
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 22/1130Z
C. 17.84N
D. 72.49E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   MUSE

红豆棒冰冰

fy6 发表于 2025-5-22 15:39
ASCAT 风场扫描
05/22 0404Z

补一张时间稍晚的MetOp-C风场

fy6

SSD 12Z 维持T1.5

TXIO22 KNES 221235
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93A)
B.  22/1130Z
C.  18.1N
D.  72.7E
E.  FIVE/MET-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET AND PT BOTH
EQUAL 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO BANDING PATTERN NOT BEING
CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

fy6

动态卫星云图
以及印度古吉拉特邦一坨强对流云团的形成过程（bushi）

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 06Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析升回T1.5/1.5

TPIO10 PGTW 221449
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 22/1430Z
C. 18.05N
D. 72.55E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   MUSE