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JTWC:UPGRADED TO HIGH
ABPW10 PGTW 011400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011400Z-020600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.8N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT 010147Z ASCAT-C PASS
SHOWS TURNING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, CONTINUING TO SHOW A MORE
DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OF 10-15 KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A LOW LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 13 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.4N 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 010948Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 011400)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2) TO
HIGH.////
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楼主: DENINE
发表于 2025-7-1 20:52
发表于 2025-7-1 21:31
