2505号热带气旋“百合”(06W.Nari)机构发报专帖

yhh · 发表于 2025-7-13 03:20

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-7-13 04:10 编辑

台風第5号(ナーリー)
2025年07月13日04時00分発表

13日03時の実況
種別台風
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域父島の南約200km
中心位置北緯25度25分 (25.4度)
東経141度40分 (141.7度)
進行方向、速さ北ゆっくり
中心気圧 998 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域南東側 280 km (150 NM)
北西側 110 km (60 NM)

13日15時の予報
種別台風
強さ -
存在地域父島の北北東約110km
予報円の中心北緯28度00分 (28.0度)
東経142度40分 (142.7度)
進行方向、速さ北北東 25 km/h (14 kt)
中心気圧 996 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速 30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径 55 km (30 NM)

14日03時の予報
種別台風
強さ -
存在地域八丈島の東南東約200km
予報円の中心北緯32度20分 (32.3度)
東経141度40分 (141.7度)
進行方向、速さ北 40 km/h (22 kt)
中心気圧 985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 25 m/s (50 kt)
最大瞬間風速 35 m/s (70 kt)
予報円の半径 80 km (42 NM)

15日03時の予報
種別台風
強さ -
存在地域襟裳岬の南西約110km
予報円の中心北緯41度10分 (41.2度)
東経142度20分 (142.3度)
進行方向、速さ北 40 km/h (22 kt)
中心気圧 990 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速 35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径 130 km (70 NM)

16日03時の予報
種別温帯低気圧
強さ -
存在地域千島近海
予報円の中心北緯48度05分 (48.1度)
東経151度10分 (151.2度)
進行方向、速さ北東 45 km/h (23 kt)
中心気圧 996 hPa
最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径 185 km (100 NM)

WTPQ30 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2505 NARI (2505)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 25.0N, 141.7E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(NARI) STATUS. TS NARI IS LOCATED AT 25.4N, 141.7E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

复制代码

yhh · 发表于 2025-7-13 03:20

No.5 NARI KMA | Issued at(KST) : Sun, 13 Jul 2025, 04:00

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
Date(UTC)	Intensity		m/s	km/h	Central Pressure (hPa)	Lat (N)	Lon (E)	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
Sat, 12 Jul 2025, 18:00 Analysis	-	1	18	65	1000	25.4	141.9	N	11	280 [W 170]		-
Sun, 13 Jul 2025, 06:00 Forecast	-	1	20	72	996	28.3	142.0	N	27	290 [W 180]		50
Sun, 13 Jul 2025, 18:00 Forecast	-	1	21	76	994	31.8	142.0	N	33	300 [W 190]		90
Mon, 14 Jul 2025, 06:00 Forecast	-	1	24	86	990	36.3	141.8	N	42	320 [W 210]		110
Mon, 14 Jul 2025, 18:00 Forecast	-	1	21	76	994	41.1	143.0	N	46	300 [W 190]		130
Tue, 15 Jul 2025, 18:00 Forecast	-	L	17	61	1000	48.3	151.9	NE	44			190

yhh · 发表于 2025-7-13 03:40

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-7-13 04:15 编辑

ZCZC
WSCI40 BABJ 121800
TO BCSY BCHK BCSH BCCD BCGZ
BETY BEXA BETJ BESZ BEJN BEZZ BEBJ
2053 0669 1417 0143 2456 (25.4) 9887 9976
(141.7) 9878 4104 3583 1601 3049 2467 2456
9912 9818 9899 7030 1193 4882 3634 4574
(2505) 5714 3583 1601 3049 2467 9975
BABJ/3049 9707 9912 9818 =
NNNN

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 121800
CCAA 12180 99398 11165
NARI 05254 11417 12334 225// 9////
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 121800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NARI 2505 (2505) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC
00HR 25.4N 141.7E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 280KM NORTHEAST
280KM SOUTHEAST
110KM SOUTHWEST
110KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNE 26KM/H
P+12HR 28.0N 142.7E 995HPA 20M/S
P+24HR 32.3N 141.7E 985HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 36.9N 142.0E 985HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 41.2N 142.3E 990HPA 23M/S
P+60HR 44.8N 146.7E 990HPA 23M/S
P+72HR 48.1N 151.2E 998HPA 18M/S=
NNNN

yhh · 发表于 2025-7-13 03:50

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-7-13 05:50 编辑

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 25.2N 142.3E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
   SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.6N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 31.4N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 35.2N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 40.3N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 47.6N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 25.8N 142.4E.
12JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
REFER TO SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

yhh · 发表于 2025-7-13 04:05

輕度颱風百合
編號第 05 號
國際命名 NARI

現況
2025年07月13日02時
中心位置在北緯 25.6 度，東經 142.4 度
過去移動方向西北
過去移動時速 2公里
中心氣壓 998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風平均暴風半徑 80 公里
　西北側 60 公里東北側 60 公里
　西南側 80 公里東南側 120 公里
十級風平均暴風半徑 - 公里

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
北時速 26 公里
預測 07月13日08時
中心位置在北緯 27.0 度，東經 142.4 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 30 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
北北東時速 21 公里
預測 07月13日14時
中心位置在北緯 28.1 度，東經 142.8 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 60 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
北時速 47 公里
預測 07月13日20時
中心位置在北緯 30.6 度，東經 142.4 度
中心氣壓988百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 23 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 30 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 75 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
北北西時速 32 公里
預測 07月14日02時
中心位置在北緯 32.3 度，東經 141.9 度
中心氣壓985百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 25 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 33 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 120 公里
70%機率半徑 90 公里

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
北時速 35 公里
預測 07月14日14時
中心位置在北緯 36.1 度，東經 141.5 度
中心氣壓988百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 23 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 30 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 120 公里

預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
北時速 49 公里
預測 07月15日02時
中心位置在北緯 41.4 度，東經 142.3 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 160 公里

預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
東北時速 41 公里
預測 07月16日02時
中心位置在北緯 47.6 度，東經 151.3 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 200 公里

預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為
東北東時速 20 公里
預測 07月17日02時
中心位置在北緯 49.1 度，東經 157.3 度
中心氣壓998百帕
70%機率半徑 340 公里

預測 96 小時內變性為溫帶氣旋

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-7-13 04:55

WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI) WARNING NR
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.2N 142.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 621 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
IMPROVING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE AS DEEP CONVECTION COMBATS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST INDUCES STRONG ABOVE 20KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
121623Z GCOM W-1 AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE CLOSE TO THE ASSESSED POSITION
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 121623Z GCOM W-1 AMSR2
WIND SPEED DATA REVEALING WEAK 15-20KT WINDS IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W AND THE STRONGEST 30-35KT
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 121623Z GCOM W-1 AMSR2 WIND SPEED DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 121620Z
CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 121730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 06W WILL CURVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE STR BUILDS AND BECOMES A STRONGER STEERING INFLUENCE.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD FROM TAU 12-36 ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BETWEEN TAU 36-48, TS 06W IS
ANTICIPATED TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, ENDING
ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AT TAU 72. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 36-48 AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CAUSES
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME BAROCLINIC. COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REINFORCE THE TRANSITION AS WELL. TS 06W IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48 AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT STATE THROUGH
TAU 72. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST AS TS 06W REMAINS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 15-20KT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG OUTFLOW. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY TAU 24, ALLOWING FOR A PEAK OF 55KTS.
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, ULTIMATELY REACHING 25KTS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TS 06W WILL ASSUME A NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS A SLIGHT SPREAD, WITH A COUPLE OF WESTERNMOST
MEMBERS TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF JAPAN. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE BULK OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OFFSHORE
OF MAINLAND JAPAN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TO A
PEAK BETWEEN 45-65KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN AS WELL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

yhh · 发表于 2025-7-13 05:38

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-7-13 05:50 编辑

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 122100
CCAA 12210 99398 11165
NARI 05259 11422 12333 225// 90413
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 122100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NARI 2505 (2505) INITIAL TIME 122100 UTC
00HR 25.9N 142.2E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 280KM NORTHEAST
280KM SOUTHEAST
110KM SOUTHWEST
110KM NORTHWEST
MOVE N 29KM/H
P+12HR 28.9N 142.8E 995HPA 20M/S
P+24HR 33.0N 141.9E 985HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 37.3N 141.7E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 42.4N 142.4E 992HPA 20M/S
P+60HR 45.9N 145.9E 995HPA 18M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-7-13 05:46

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-7-13 05:50 编辑

台風第5号(ナーリー)
2025年07月13日06時50分発表

13日06時の実況
種別台風
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域父島の南約170km
中心位置北緯25度35分 (25.6度)
東経141度55分 (141.9度)
進行方向、速さ北北東ゆっくり
中心気圧 998 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域南東側 280 km (150 NM)
北西側 110 km (60 NM)

13日18時の予報
種別台風
強さ -
存在地域父島の北北東約240km
予報円の中心北緯29度05分 (29.1度)
東経143度05分 (143.1度)
進行方向、速さ北北東 35 km/h (18 kt)
中心気圧 996 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速 30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径 55 km (30 NM)

14日06時の予報
種別台風
強さ -
存在地域八丈島の東約180km
予報円の中心北緯33度00分 (33.0度)
東経141度40分 (141.7度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 35 km/h (20 kt)
中心気圧 985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 25 m/s (50 kt)
最大瞬間風速 35 m/s (70 kt)
予報円の半径 80 km (42 NM)

15日03時の予報
種別台風
強さ -
存在地域襟裳岬の南西約110km
予報円の中心北緯41度10分 (41.2度)
東経142度20分 (142.3度)
進行方向、速さ北 40 km/h (22 kt)
中心気圧 990 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速 35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径 130 km (70 NM)

16日03時の予報
種別温帯低気圧
強さ -
存在地域千島近海
予報円の中心北緯48度05分 (48.1度)
東経151度10分 (151.2度)
進行方向、速さ北東 45 km/h (23 kt)
中心気圧 996 hPa
最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径 185 km (100 NM)

yhh · 发表于 2025-7-13 06:03

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-7-13 06:10 编辑

台风公报
预报：黄奕武签发：王海平 2025 年 07 月 13 日 06 时
东海热带低压向东偏北方向移动
今年第5号台风“百合”生成

一、中央气象台7月13日06时继续发布热带低压预报：

东海热带低压的中心今天（13日）早晨5点钟位于浙江省舟山市东偏北方大约215公里的东海北部海面上，就是北纬30.9度、东经124.2度，中心附近最大风力有6级（13米/秒），中心最低气压为1000百帕。

预计，该低压将以每小时20-25公里的速度向东偏北方向移动，强度维持或略有增强，逐渐向朝鲜海峡靠近。

大风预报：7月13日08时至14日08时，东海大部、黄海南部的部分海域将有6-7级大风，阵风可达8-9级。

二、今年第5号台风“百合”生成

今年第5号台风“百合”（热带风暴级；英文名称：Nari；名字来源：韩国；名称意义：百合花）于7月13日凌晨2点钟在西北太平洋洋面生成，早晨5点钟其中心位于日本东京偏南方大约1110公里的洋面上，就是北纬25.9度、东经142.2度，中心附近最大风力8级（18米/秒），中心最低气压998百帕，7级风圈半径为110~280公里。

预计，“百合”将以每小时25~30公里的速度向偏北方向移动，强度将有所加强，逐渐向日本东部一带沿海靠近。未来“百合”对我国无影响。

yhh · 发表于 2025-7-13 08:18

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-7-13 08:25 编辑

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 130000
CCAA 13000 99398 11165
NARI 05260 11424 12334 225// 90508
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 130000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NARI 2505 (2505) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC
00HR 26.0N 142.4E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 280KM NORTHEAST
280KM SOUTHEAST
110KM SOUTHWEST
110KM NORTHWEST
MOVE N 31KM/H
P+12HR 29.3N 142.8E 995HPA 20M/S
P+24HR 33.5N 141.8E 985HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 38.1N 141.6E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 43.0N 142.4E 995HPA 18M/S
P+60HR 46.3N 146.0E 995HPA 18M/S=
NNNN

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