菲律宾以东2525号强热带风暴“海鸥”(31W.Kalmaegi) - 数值支持发展

pocketbox

WTPH20 RPMM 020600
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 02
ISSUED AT 0600UTC, 02 NOVEMBER 2025 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (2525) 994HPA
AT 0600UTC, PSTN 11.3N 133.3E MOV W 15KT
MXWD 45KT NEAR CTR
48KT 10NM NE 20NM NW QUAD
34KT 30NM NE 10NM SE 10NM SW 60NM NW QUAD

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 021800UTC
PSTN 11.3N 130.5E, PRES 980HPA, MWXD 60KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 030600UTC
PSTN 10.9N 127.8E, PRES 965HPA, MWXD 75KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 031800UTC
PSTN 10.8N 125.2E, PRES 955HPA, MWXD 85KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 040600UTC
PSTN 11.0N 122.4E, PRES 965HPA, MWXD 75KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 041800UTC
PSTN 11.4N 120.1E, PRES 970HPA, MWXD 70KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 050600UTC
PSTN 12.0N 117.9E, PRES 970HPA, MWXD 70KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 060600UTC
PSTN 13.4N 112.3E, PRES 965HPA, MWXD 75KT
120-HOUR FCST VLD AT 070600UTC
PSTN 15.1N 107.2E, PRES 985HPA, MWXD 55KT

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 10.9N 134.8E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 021200UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

恒信金仁

疑问，今年正统菲律宾海 10-18N 125E以东 这个区域有MH吗？感觉这货进南海前不用看了。岘港都可能吃C4登陆

fy6

TPPN10 PGTW 021208
A. TROPICAL STORM 31W (KALMAEGI)
B. 02/1130Z
C. 11.32N
D. 131.82E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
LINDGREN

fy6

TXPQ21 KNES 021221
TCSWNP
A. 31W (KALMAEGI)
B. 02/1130Z
C. 11.7N
D. 131.9E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE
MET EQUALS 3.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 24-HOUR TREND AND THE PT
AGREES. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO THE IRREGULAR BANDING FEATURES.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LINER=

Enceladus

风场尚可

Meow

条件大好，JTWC不排除登陆前比90kt更强。

动画色调强化卫星云图显示，热带风暴31W（海鸥）具有两个明显的深厚对流簇，在环流中心上空形成了一个椭圆形的中心密集云层区。分析认为低层环流中心位于东南部对流叶下方，该结论由021141Z的GMI 37 GHz微波图像证实。该GMI微波图像同时揭示了其高度紧凑的核心结构，并伴有小型微波风眼特征，这为初始位置提供了高置信度支持。初始强度定为55节，置信度为中等，依据是下方列出的机构德沃夏克分析定强和CIMSS客观强度估计。环境分析表明，31W处于一个非常有利的环境中，其特征为高空强烈的径向流出流、较弱（10-15节）的东风垂直风切变以及温暖（29-30摄氏度）的海表温度。

预计31W将在东北和西北方向副热带高压脊延伸的影响下，在时效36小时前大致向西移动。预计首次登陆将发生在时效30小时左右，靠近塔克洛班市。时效36小时后，随着台湾西南侧的高压脊成为主要引导机制，预计路径将转向西北。随后31W将穿越南海，并在时效96小时后于越南中部进行最终登陆。关于强度，预计31W将在未来24至30小时内快速增强，直至在菲律宾登陆。极高的海表温度、高海洋热含量值以及良好的流出通道将支持风暴的增强。预计时效24小时的强度为90节，但在登陆前很可能出现更高的峰值。随后，海鸥在穿越米沙鄢群岛期间将短暂减弱。然而，一旦涡旋进入南海，增强趋势将继续。强劲的赤道方向流出通道和温暖的海表温度将使其在越南登陆前出现第二个峰值，强度约为105节。崎岖地形的相互作用将导致系统在穿越越南并进入老挝南部时迅速减弱。

pocketbox

WTPH20 RPMM 021200
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 03
ISSUED AT 1200UTC, 02 NOVEMBER 2025 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (2525) 985HPA
AT 1200UTC, PSTN 11.4N 131.6E MOV W 15KT
MXWD 55KT NEAR CTR
48KT 10NM NE 20NM NW QUAD
34KT 30NM NE 10NM SE 10NM SW 60NM NW QUAD

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 030000UTC
PSTN 11.0N 129.1E, PRES 975HPA, MWXD 65KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 031200UTC
PSTN 10.7N 126.8E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 040000UTC
PSTN 10.9N 124.2E, PRES 955HPA, MWXD 85KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 041200UTC
PSTN 11.3N 121.7E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 050000UTC
PSTN 11.8N 119.2E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 051200UTC
PSTN 12.5N 116.5E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 061200UTC
PSTN 13.8N 111.2E, PRES 955HPA, MWXD 85KT
120-HOUR FCST VLD AT 071200UTC
PSTN 15.3N 107.0E, PRES 985HPA, MWXD 55KT

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 11.4N 131.6E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 021800UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

Enceladus

底层没整明白

Leonardo

不会和24Toraji一样，因为风切导致小环流整合失败吧（无眼海燕.jpg)

冇茜特菈莉

TPPN10 PGTW 022044

A. TROPICAL STORM 31W (KALMAEGI)

B. 02/2030Z

C. 10.57N

D. 129.43E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 3.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1712Z 10.98N 130.03E AMS2


BRYANT