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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-11-21 06:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 10.4S 133.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 133.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.0S 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.6S 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.2S 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.9S 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.8S 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.6S 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.2S 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 132.8E.
20NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176
NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 202100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR
- 011//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 10.4S 133.0E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 176 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TC 05S CONTINUES TO CYCLE
- THROUGH PERIODS OF INTENSE DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED BY GENERAL
- COLLAPSE. THE MOST RECENT BURST OF ACTIVITY STARTED AROUND 1100Z,
- PEAKED AROUND 1500Z AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE COLLAPSE STAGE.
- CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS,
- PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM, WHERE THE
- DRIEST MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO LURK. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
- IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF FLOW PATTERNS AT DIFFERENT
- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AT THE OUTFLOW LAYER, STRONG OUTFLOW IS
- PRESENT, PUSHING OUTWARDS FROM THE CENTER AS EVIDENCED BY THE BROAD
- ARC OF CIRRUS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, AT A
- SLIGHTLY LOWER LEVEL, THE WV IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
- PUSHING ONTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE MODEL-DERIVED
- SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MAXIMUM SHEAR AROUND 350MB FROM THE NORTH. THE
- OVERALL IMPACT IS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STAGNATED AND FAILED TO
- INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
- WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON RADAR DATA, THOUGH THE
- RADAR DEPICTION IS NEBULOUS AT BEST. AND LATE RECEIPT OF A 201831Z
- GMI PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
- THOUGH IT DOES NOT ALIGN WELL WITH THE RADAR DATA, AND POST-WARNING
- REANALYSIS MAY RESULT IN A SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWARD. THE
- INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A BLEND
- OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW.
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SSTS
- AND DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR, DRY
- AIR INTRUSION AND VORTEX ASYMMETRIES.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SYSTEM IS STILL BE STEERED THROUGH
- A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, CAUGHT BETWEEN A STRONG NEAR EQUATORIAL
- RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF
- OF CARPENTARIA, AND A WEAKER NER THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF JAVA TO
- THE KIMBERLEY REGION AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF RIDGING CONNECTING
- THESE TWO TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TC 05S.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- ADRM: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 201623Z
- CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 201730Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 201730Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 40 KTS AT 201845Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 201830Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
- PERIPHERY; VORTEX TILT.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS STILL TRAPPED IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
- STEERING PATTERN, AND THUS IS STILL MOVING RATHER SLOWLY AND
- ERRATICALLY, BUT GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. OVER THE
- NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, STRONG RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
- THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, AND THIS WILL SERVE
- TO FINALLY GIVE TC 05S THE KICK IT NEEDS TO TRULY COMMENCE ITS
- ANTICIPATED SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE STR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
- NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE FORECAST
- PERIOD, SUPPORTING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE DURATION. THE
- SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE VAN DIEMEN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
- HOURS, GRAZE THE COAST IN VICINITY OF DARWIN BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU
- 48 AND THEN MOVE INTO THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF BEFORE MAKING
- LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST KIMBERLEY COAST PRIOR TO TAU 96. IN
- TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SAME ISSUES THAT WERE PRESENT YESTERDAY
- REMAIN PROBLEMATIC TODAY, NAMELY VORTEX ASYMMETRY, DRY AIR ALONG
- THE EASTERN FLANK, AND MODERATE SHEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-LEVELS.
- THE GFS, ECMWF AND HAFS-A CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE SHEAR WILL
- DROP OFF WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
- WHILE THEY ALSO SHOW A GENERAL MOISTENING OF THE ENVIRONMENT. THIS
- SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
- INTO THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE VAN DIEMEN GULF. WHILE THE SYSTEM
- WILL SKIRT THE COAST NEAR DARWIN, THE LLCC WILL LIKELY REMAIN
- OFFSHORE AND THUS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS
- IT PASSES DARWIN AND MOVES INTO THE BONAPARTE GULF. WHILE THE
- WATERS IN THE BONAPARTE GULF ARE QUITE WARM, SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE
- BOTH ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 48, AND THE SYSTEM IS
- FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF BEFORE LANDFALL.
- AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN KIMBERLEY, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
- DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS, WITH THE
- EXCEPTION OF THE GALWEM AND EGRR MODELS, IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
- TAU 72. OUTSIDE OF THE MODELS NOTED ABOVE, THE REMAINDER OF THE
- CONSENSUS PACKAGE IS CONFINED TO AN ENVELOPE THAT EXPANDS TO 75NM
- BY TAU 72. NAVGEM LIES ON THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE,
- TRACKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF DARWIN, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
- MODELS ARE TIGHTLY PACKED NEAR THE MEAN, SKIRTING THE COAST IN THE
- VICINITY OF DARWIN. AFTER TAU 72, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, WITH
- THE ECMWF ARCING NORTH OF THE KIMBERLEY COAST AND KEEPING THE
- CENTER OFFSHORE THROUGH TAU 120, WHILE THE NAVGEM TRACKS THE CENTER
- TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WYNDHAM, RESULTING IN A 300NM CROSS-TRACK
- SPREAD BY TAU 120. ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE
- AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE COME INTO
- BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL, LENDING INCREASING CONFIDENCE TO THE
- TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE ECMWF AND GDM
- FGN MEAN THROUGH TAU 72, THEN MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS AND GDM
- FGN THROUGH TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS SHARPLY MIXED, WITH
- THE CTCX AND HWRF INDICATING WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
- PERIOD, WHILE THE COTC AND HAFS-A INDICATE A RELATIVELY FLAT TREND
- TO TAU 36 FOLLOWED BY EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO PEAKS AT OR
- ABOVE 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72. HAFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THIS OVERALL
- DEPICTION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, THOUGH COAMPS-TC IS A
- NEWCOMER TO THIS GAME. THAT DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THIS
- SCENARIO REMAINS HIGHLY UNREALISTIC, THOUGH THE OVERALL TREND OF
- INTENSIFICATION BEYOND TAU 24 IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF, GFS AND
- SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN
- THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2025-11-20 20:40
