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发表于 2025-11-25 10:35
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JTWC/33W/#02/11-25 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHRE)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.6N 122.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 254 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO FORM INTO A MORE SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO), AS THE SYSTEM PASSED OVER SOUTHERN PANAY ISLAND IT WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OF INNER-CORE LIGHTNING,
SUGGESTIVE OF RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM.
A 242308Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED NASCENT BANDING
FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A STILL SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER, AT LEAST IN THE UPPER-LEVELS. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM
PAGASA SHOWS THE NASCENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DEFINED AS IT PASSES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF PANAY ISLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RADAR
DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE, NO CHARACTERIZED BY LOW DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR, WARM
SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 250030Z
CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 250030Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 242308Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 40 KTS AT 250030Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: HAVING COMPLETED, OR VERY NEARLY COMPLETED,
ITS TRAVERSE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLAND, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 33W IS SET TO IMMINENTLY MOVE OVER THE RELATIVELY
OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHERN SULU SEA. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE LINAPACAN STRAIT NORTH OF PALAWAN AND EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CONTINUING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR, TD
33W WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SCS BY TAU 48, WHERE IT WILL BEGIN
TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
MOVES INTO A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN, TRAPPED BETWEEN RIDGING TO
THE EAST AND WEST AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE NORTH.
AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SLOWS TO A CRAWL, NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY,
TRAPPED AS IT WILL BE IN THE WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING PATTERN.
OVERALL, TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF VIETNAM AFTER TAU 72, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHLY
ERRATIC, AND LOOPING MOTION. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, HELD BACK AS IT MOVED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN A
SERIES OF ISLANDS. NOW THAT IT IS POISED TO MOVE BACK OVER
RELATIVELY OPEN WATERS, THE SYSTEM IS PRIMED FOR A FASTER PACE,
POTENTIALLY EVEN RAPID, INTENSIFICATION. ONCE GETTING ITS FEET WET
AGAIN, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL NEED A BIT OF TIME TO ACHIEVE A
VERTICALLY ALIGNED VORTEX, BUT NOW THAT THE SHEAR HAS DROPPED OFF
TO JUST 5-10 KNOTS, THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
QUICK. BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE SCS, TD 33W WILL BE A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM AND SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD UNDERGO A PERIOD
OF RI AFTER TAU 36. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STOPS JUST SHORT OF RI,
THOUGH IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES, THE NEXT FORECAST MAY GO FOR
IT. REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM ONLY HAS ABOUT 48 HOURS OF GOOD
CONDITIONS BEFORE IT SLAMS INTO A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY COLD-SURGE
AND VERY STRONG (30-35 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY SHEAR GIVES IT A GOOD WHACK
ON THE OL NOGGIN. THE RAPID INCREASE IN SHEAR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48
COULD EVEN LEAD TO DECAPITATION, BUT EVEN IF IT DOES NOT, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN STEADILY BEYOND TAU 48. SHEAR LOOKS TO DECREASE
AGAIN AFTER TAU 96, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO AT LEAST
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER THIS POINT, AND POTENTIALLY REINTENSIFY
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH ABOUT 75NM OF CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
BETWEEN THE GFS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND ECMWF ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
BY THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST. IN A NEW DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUN, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SHARPLY AFTER TAU
48, OPENING UP TO 170NM BY TAU 72, WITH THE ECMWF MOVING OUT
WELL-AHEAD OF THE LAGGING GFS. BEYOND TAU 72, THE MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY SHARP BIFURCATION, WITH THE ECMWF, AND THE ECEPS MEAN
TRACKING THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO THE COAST OF VIETNAM, WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE (CONSENSUS, GFS, GEFS,
NAVGEM, ECMWF AIFS AND GDM MEAN) TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD AT A
VERY SLOW PACE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
SHORT-TERM, TRENDING TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER-TERM
FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL TREND AND TIMING OF THE PEAK INTENSITY, BUT SHOWS ABOUT
A 30 KNOT SPREAD (50-80 KNOTS) IN THE ACTUAL PEAK INTENSITY. THE
SHIPS-GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE LOWEST OF THE MODELS, WHILE THE HWRF
CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGHEST. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL RI AIDS ARE
TRIPPED INCLUDING RIPA, RIDE, RI70, RI55, RI30 AND RI25 AND THE
CIMSS AI-RI IS PREDICTING A 40-50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST
25-30 KNOTS OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE
JTWC FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY CALL FOR RI AT THIS TIME, THERE IS
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF RI OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REACHING A MUCH HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY
CLOSER TO THE HWRF SOLUTION (80 KNOTS). THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND CTCX SOLUTIONS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-11-25 09:55
