|
|
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-12-22 12:00 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 12.0S 102.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 102.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.0S 101.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.9S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.8S 99.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.8S 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.9S 97.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.0S 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.3S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 102.0E.
22DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317
NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z AND 230300Z.
//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 220300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR
- 010//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 12.0S 102.3E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 317 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL AS IT SWITCHES STEERING
- FLOW IN A SPLIT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. PREVIOUSLY, THE STORM WAS BEING
- DRIVEN WEST BY AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PILBARA COAST, BUT
- YESTERDAY IT TRACKED FURTHER AWAY AND MOVED INTO A WEAKNESS
- BETWEEN THE TWO PARENT ANTICYCLONES, SHOWING A SUBTLE POLEWARD
- DRIFT. NOW, THE LAST THREE POSITIONS SHOW A BEARING OF 280-285
- DEGREES AS THE SYSTEM COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEW
- ANTICYCLONE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CHANGE IN THE
- OUTFLOW WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AND CLEARING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE
- OF THE SYSTEM AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS OUTFLOW OVER THE
- EQUATORWARD SEMICIRCLE. ON THE SURFACE, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
- CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED WHILE THE BULK OF THE DEEP
- CONVECTION HAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE EQUATORWARD SEMICIRCLE. DURING
- THE PAST THREE HOURS, CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BEGUN
- CONSOLIDATING OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. A 212249Z GMI PASS
- ADDED GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE FIX POSITION WHILE THE .60 WRAP IN TCB IS
- THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS FROM CIMMS FELL
- SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND THE 40KT INTENSITY OF THE
- SYSTEM BACKS OFF 5KTS FROM THE JTWC DVORAK BUT THE SMALL SIZE OF
- THE SYSTEM AND LATITUDE BIAS SUPPORTS STAYING CLOSER TO THE DVORAK
- THAN THE OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM AN EARLIER SAR PASS AT
- 211128Z.
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE EQUATORWARD FLANK OF THE
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17S
- 93S.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 47 KTS AT 211825Z
- CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 220030Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 220030Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 212245Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 220030Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WILL CRUISE SLOWLY ALONG
- A WESTERLY BEARING AND DEEPEN AT A LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE,
- TOPPING OUT AT OR NEAR TYPHOON STRENGTH. THE TRACK CONTINUES TO
- FOCUS ON A STRIKE OR NEAR MISS ON THE COCOS ISLANDS ON CHRISTMAS
- DAY. TIMING OF PASSAGE AND ASPECT TO THE ISLANDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
- BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS INCREASING WITH EACH FIX
- AND MODEL RUN. THE STABILITY AND ORIENTATION OF THE OCEANIC RIDGE
- WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH POLEWARD MOVEMENT AND UPSTREAM VERTICAL
- WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND OUTFLOW PATTERNS
- ARE STEADY ALONG TRACK. A MODELED SOUNDING OF THE UPSTREAM
- ENVIRONMENT INDICATES A MAXIMUM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 18KTS OF
- SOUTHEAST SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND 13KNOTS EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE
- TOTAL COLUMN, BUT THE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE LLCC WILL MITIGATE THE
- SHEAR SUBSTANTIALLY. THE PRIMARY FORCES WORKING AGAINST THIS SYSTEM
- CONTINUE TO BE UPWELLING AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. BOTH SATELLITE AND
- TPW ANIMATION SHOW THE FIRST INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CORE BEGAN
- YESTERDAY BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z BUT THE SYSTEM WAS ABLE TO ABSORB IT
- AND HAS REGATHERED ITSELF. THERE IS MORE DRY AIR TO COME, HOWEVER,
- WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOWING DRY AIR COILING AROUND THE
- LLCC LIKE A SNAKE AND ISOLATING THE CORE BY TAU 72. UPWELLING
- CAUSED BY THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE
- SYSTEM FROM BELOW AFTER TAU 48, PUTTING A CEILING ON SYSTEM
- INTENSITY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS
- EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD WHEN THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING
- AND PASSING THE COCOS ISLANDS.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: SHORT TERM TRACK GUIDANCE HAS TIGHTENED UP
- SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PAST FEW CYCLES. DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS,
- TRACK GUIDANCE IS LOOSE BUT CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A TRACK GENERALLY
- JUST SOUTH OF WEST, BUT AFTER THAT, BOTH CROSS-TRACK AND
- ALONG-TRACK SPREADS BECOME WIDELY SPREAD BEYOND THE POINT OF BEING
- ANNOYING. SOME OF THOSE WIDE GOERSS PROBABILITY CONSENSUS ERRORS
- (GPCE) CIRCLES ARE DUE TO THE WIDELY DISPARATE GUIDANCE FROM SOME OF
- THE LOWER SKILLED TRACKERS, BUT SOME OF IT IS CAUSED BY THE HAFS-A AND
- HWRF. BOTH OF THOSE COUPLED MODELS BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN PACK AND
- TAKE A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY,
- SHOWING A POLEWARD DRIFT WITH A MUCH SLOWER SPEED OF ADVANCE. THE
- HAFS ALSO SHOWS THE HIGHEST INTENSITY OF ALL AIDS, TAKING THE STORM
- UP TO 85KTS NEAR TAU 48. GIVEN THAT THE SOUTHWESTWARD JAUNT IS
- EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMMEDIATELY AND ANY SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD MOVEMENT
- WOULD BE SWIMMING UPSTREAM INTO THE SEASONAL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AS
- WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING DUE WESTERLY
- DESPITE BEING STEERED BY THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE RIDGE, THE JTWC
- FORECAST STAYS WITH THE MAIN PACK OF UNCOUPLED MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE
- EURO AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLES AND THE EC-AIFS. IF IT TURNS OUT THE
- HAFS AND HWRF ARE CORRECT, THAT WILL REVEAL ITSELF DURING THE NEXT
- 12 HOURS AND IT WILL BE A QUICK ADJUSTMENT. A TRACK THAT FOLLOWS
- THE ENSEMBLES WILL SUSTAIN THE THREAT TO THE COCOS ISLANDS, WHEREAS
- IF IT TURNS OUT THE COUPLED MODELS ARE CORRECT, THERE WILL BE LESS
- OF A THREAT AND MORE CERTAINTY THAT THE WINDS OVER THE COCOS ISLANDS
- WILL COME FROM THE WEST. THE CURRENT CLOSE CPA OF THE FORECAST
- TRACK MAKES WIND DIRECTION AS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER THE COCOS
- ISLANDS UNANSWERABLE AT THIS POINT. THE ISLANDS SIT PRETTY MUCH
- DEAD CENTER IN THE GOERSS PROBABILITY CONSENSUS ERROR CIRCLES AT
- TAU 72. THUS, THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE TRACK WILL USE OLD SCHOOL
- TECHNIQUES AND STEER THE SYSTEM WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN USING A
- CONSTANT BEARING AND MILDLY INCREASING SPEED OF ADVANCE, FAVORING
- THE ENSEMBLES.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册
×
|
楼主: Ck.
发表于 2025-12-21 22:00
