迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai) - MFR:110KT JTWC:125KT

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛畅、曹越男  签发：王海平  2026 年 01 月 14 日 18 时
“杜扎伊”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 14日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬17.2度，东经77.2度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 982百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约2100公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”由15级减弱为11级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度维持或略有增强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月14日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 141349
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 76.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4. CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF DUDZAI HAS CHANGED
FROM AN EYE CONFIGURATION TO A CENTER CONFIGURATION DROWNED IN THE
MASS. THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE IN EITHER VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY.
BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE T NUMBER HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 4.0. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE
DMINT/DPRINT/AIDT/ADT ANALYSES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY,
DUZAI REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BUT WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS REDUCED TO 55KT.

REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY, DUDZAI IS FOLLOWING A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY
IN RELATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS SWELLING TO THE EAST, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. RSMC PREDICTION IS BASED
ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHOSE
DISPERSION IS LOWER THAN THAT OF PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, INDUCING FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARMER
SURFACE WATERS AS IT MOVES FASTER. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REINTENSIFY AND
RETURN TO THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM
FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN
AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, ITS EXTENT WILL DEPEND IN
PARTICULAR ON THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 141909 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION IN THE CENTRE OF THE STORM
HAS REMAINED THE SAME, WITH THE CENTRE MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS
THE CENTRE, ACCORDING TO DATA FROM SENTINEL1A AT 1323UTC AND METOP-3
AT 1636UTC. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, AN EYE SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING.
IN THIS CONTEXT, A DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A CDO OF 4.5 CAN BE MADE,
ALLOWING DUDZAI TO RETURN TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WITH AVERAGE
WINDS OF 65KT. THIS ANALYSIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE OTHER SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, BUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR DUDZAI TO
REINTENSIFY, WHICH SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING IN THE LATEST DATA,
VALIDATED BY THE LATEST RCM3 DATA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DUDZAI IS FOLLOWING A WESTERLY TRACK
IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY IN LINE WITH ALL
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION REGARDING THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, IN CONNECTION WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE
EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTH-WEST. THE RSMC
FORECAST OPTED FOR A SCENARIO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
DISPERSION IS DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, INDICATING
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR RODRIGUES BY SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO A MORE
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATER
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN CONNECTION WITH ITS MOVEMENT. IT SHOULD
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS, THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
CAUSE IT TO REACT MORE QUICKLY TO THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT CONTINUED
WEAKENING REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WITH
THE SYSTEM AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LESS AS IT
PASSES CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 76.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 76.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 17.1S 75.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 17.0S 73.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 17.0S 72.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.3S 70.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.6S 68.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 20.1S 65.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 21.6S 62.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.9E.
14JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 142100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 009//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.2S 76.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 644 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) WITH A STRUGGLING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
    
19. (CDO) FLARING AGAIN AFTER OVERCOMING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM. DRY AIR
    
20. BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST IS STIFLING DEEP
    
21. CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. DUDZAI IS
    
22. ATTEMPTING TO RE-FORM AN EYE, EVIDENCED BY THE COLD CLOUD TOPS
    
23. FIGHTING TO WRAP AROUND THE VORTEX, AND A 141308Z WSFM COLOR
    
24. COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT 14S HAS MAINTAINED A
    
25. SYMMETRICAL MICROWAVE EYE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY
    
26. FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
    
27. SHEAR, WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG POLEWARD
    
28. OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
    
29. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED COLOR COMPOSITE
    
30. MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PGTW POSITION FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
    
31. KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS AUTOMATED
    
32. INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITIES LISTED
    
33. BELOW.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    
38. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
42.    DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
43.    FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
44.    FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS SATCON: 69 KTS AT 141530Z
    
46.    CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 141830Z
    
47.    CIMSS AIDT: 71 KTS AT 141830Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 62 KTS AT 141830Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
51.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
52.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
54.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR PRESENT ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
    
55. 
    
56. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
57.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
58.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
59.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
60. 
    
61. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
62. 
    
63. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
64. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
65. 
    
66. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 14S WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
    
67. FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
    
68. OF THE STR CENTERED TO ITS SOUTHWEST. AROUND TAU 36, THE STEERING
    
69. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH OF 14P, CAUSING
    
70. THE STORM TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE STR WILL BUILD
    
71. A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED EXTENSION EASTWARD OF DUDZAI,
    
72. FURTHER EMPHASIZING THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION. 14P WILL
    
73. CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
    
74. PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
    
75. SLIGHTLY, REACHING ITS PEAK OF 80 KTS NEAR TAU 24 AS THE STRONG
    
76. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH.
    
77. FOLLOWING TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE TROUGH WILL PASS AND THE OUTFLOW
    
78. CHANNEL WILL BE LOST, ALLOWING THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO HAVE A
    
79. GREATER WEAKENING EFFECT. 14S WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
    
80. THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE
    
81. ENVIRONMENT.
    
82. 
    
83. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
    
84. GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
    
85. WITH ALL RELIABLE MODELS SUGGESTING A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU
    
86. 36, FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. AS A RESULT,
    
87. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM TAU
    
88. 0-72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS
    
89. ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, THOUGH ALL MODELS SHOW A PEAK INTENSITY
    
90. NEAR TAU 36-48 FOLLOWED BY CONSISTENT WEAKENING. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
    
91. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IN ASSESSED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
92. 
    
93. 
    
94. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
95.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
96.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
97.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
98.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
99. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 150049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 74.8 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY
EVOLVED INTO AN EYE CONFIGURATION. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, THE EYE
HAS CLEARED A LITTLE MORE BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME HIGH-ALTITUDE
CLOUDS, MEANING THAT THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT NECESSARILY OVER
THE HOT SPOT. THE LATEST GCOM-W MICROWAVE DATA FROM 2032UTC CONFIRMS
THIS SHIFT BETWEEN THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE ALTITUDE, ALTHOUGH IT IS
FADING. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS PROPOSED AT 5.0 IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
OTHER SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCES BUT CLEARLY SHOWS DUDZAI'S REACTIVITY DUE
TO ITS SMALL SIZE AND THE DESIRE OF THE CORE TO CLEAR IN THE NEXT FEW
MOMENTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, IT CAN BE ESTIMATED THAT DUDZAI IS
IN A PHASE OF SIGNIFICANT, EVEN RAPID REINTENSIFICATION, BUT REMAINS
AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DUDZAI IS FOLLOWING A WESTERLY TRACK
IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY IN LINE WITH ALL
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION REGARDING THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY
MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST
AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH-WEST. THE RSMC FORECAST
OPTED FOR A SCENARIO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES, THEN WITH A LONGER-TERM FORECAST THAT DROPS
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
DISPERSION IS DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIMES, LEADING TO
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NEAR RODRIGUES BY SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS RETURNING TO A MORE FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATER OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IN CONNECTION WITH ITS MOVEMENT. IT WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POSSIBLY REACHING THE STAGE OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ONCE AGAIN. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE
WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD CAUSE
IT TO RESPOND MORE QUICKLY TO THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT ON SATURDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT
CONTINUOUS AND DEFINITIVE WEAKENING REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WITH THE SYSTEM AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR LESS AS IT PASSES CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES.


NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：周冠博  2026 年 01 月 15 日 10 时
“杜扎伊”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 15日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬17.2度，东经74.8度

强度等级: 热带气旋

最大风力: 13级，41米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 972百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1850公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”由12级加强为13级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月15日08时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 150632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 74.3 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ / CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED, EVEN
THOUGH THE INFRARED IMAGE SHOWS THAT IT IS FREQUENTLY HIDDEN BY
CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE UNDOUBTEDLY BIASED BY THIS ASPECT,
BUT WE HAVE NONETHELESS DECIDED TO REDUCE THE MAXIMUM SPEED AT 00UTC
TO 75KT. BASED ON THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE EYE DVORAK ANALYSES, THE DT
OSCILLATES BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.5, EQUIVALENT TO A MAXIMUM SPEED BETWEEN
75 KT AND 90 KT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, WE HAVE
OPTED FOR THE LOWER RANGE OF THESE VALUES. THE ONLY MICROWAVE IMAGE
RECENTLY PRESENTED IS A WSFM IMAGE TAKEN AT 0017UTC, REVEALING A
SOLID EYE WITH STILL ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTION. WE CAN ESTIMATE THAT
DUDZAI IS IN A PHASE OF CLEAR REINTENSIFICATION, TEMPORARILY
COUNTERACTED BY DIURNAL EVOLUTION, BUT STILL REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 75KT.

SLIGHT CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DUDZAI IS FOLLOWING A WESTERLY TRACK
IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY IN LINE WITH ALL
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION REGARDING THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY
MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST
AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH-WEST. OVER THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, THE RSMC FORECAST OPTED FOR A SCENARIO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES, WITH AN EARLIER TURN
TO THE SOUTH-WEST FROM FRIDAY EVENING AND MORE DECISIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DISPERSION IS LOWER THAN IN
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIMES, LEADING TO GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
RODRIGUES ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS BACK IN A MORE FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATER OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IN CONNECTION WITH ITS MOVEMENT. THE PRESENCE OF THE
WESTERN UPPER JET JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM GUARANTEES AN EFFICIENT
POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR TODAY. IT WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POSSIBLY REACHING THE STAGE OF AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ONCE AGAIN. FROM FRIDAY, THE WEST-NORTHWEST
SHEAR, MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND THEN STRONG ON SATURDAY, IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO A WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM COULD CAUSE IT TO REACT MORE QUICKLY TO THIS SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT ON SATURDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING ON FRIDAY, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, WITH THE SYSTEM AT THE
STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LESS AS IT PASSES CLOSEST TO
RODRIGUES. DEEP SHEAR COULD DECREASE FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, DELAYING
THE DOWNGRADE OF DUDZAI TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.


NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 74.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 74.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 16.9S 72.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 16.8S 71.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.1S 70.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 17.8S 69.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 19.7S 66.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 21.4S 63.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 24.4S 58.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 73.9E.
15JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 609
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 150900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 010//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.1S 74.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 609 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WITH A PARTIALLY FILLED EYE AND A HIGHLY
    
19. SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL.
    
20. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ANALYZED TO HAVE COMPLETED ANOTHER BOUT OF
    
21. RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) FROM 65 KTS 24 HOURS AGO TO 95 KTS NOW.
    
22. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
23. EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED
    
24. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
    
25. BELOW. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE FAR TOO LOW DUE TO
    
26. THE EYE SCENE TYPE NOT BEING USED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
    
27. INDICATES THAT 14S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
    
28. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    
29. AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    
34. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
38.    DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
39.    FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
40.    FIMP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 150600Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 66 KTS AT 150600Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 82 KTS AT 150600Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
46.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
47.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE NEAR-TERM INTENSITY IS FORECAST
    
58. TO BE HIGHER DUE TO THE RECENT RI. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
    
59. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD, ALONG
    
62. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. NEAR TAU 36, THE
    
63. STR IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD, AND 14S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND
    
64. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF IT. THIS WILL INITIATE A SOUTHWESTWARD
    
65. TRACK, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, 14S
    
66. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO THE
    
67. CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, DRY AIR
    
68. ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING. IN
    
69. ADDITION TO THE DRY AIR, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO
    
70. WEAKEN. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL CAUSE 14S TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH
    
71. TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE,
    
72. FURTHER AIDING IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
73. FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR TAU 120, 14S WILL ENTER BORDERLINE SEA
    
74. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 25-26 C AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GAIN
    
75. LATITUDE.
    
76. 
    
77. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
78. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
    
79. NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
    
80. REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, THERE IS A CROSS-TRACK
    
81. SPREAD OF AROUND 100 NM AT TAU 72. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS A BIT
    
82. LARGER WITH ECMWF BEING THE SLOWEST MODEL WHILE GFS IS THE FASTEST.
    
83. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS AROUND 220 NM. AFTER TAU 72,
    
84. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS SMALL, BUT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES
    
85. TO AROUND 250 NM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
    
86. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
87. AGREES ON WEAKENING FROM TAU 12 ONWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
    
88. OUTLIERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED NEAR THE
    
89. CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
90. 
    
91. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
92.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
93.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
94.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
95.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
96. NNNN

复制代码

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛畅、曹越男  签发：周冠博  2026 年 01 月 15 日 18 时
“杜扎伊”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 15日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬17.1度，东经74.3度

强度等级: 热带气旋

最大风力: 13级，38米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 974百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1805公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”由11级加强为13级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月15日14时00分）

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WTIO30 FMEE 151328
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 73.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55
60H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED AND HAS
EVEN BECOME BETTER DEFINED INDICATING A CLEAR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, NOTABLY AN EFFECTIVE POLAR
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK EYE ANALYSES SUGGEST A
DT OF 5.5, CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUCH AS THE
DPRINT, EQUIVALENT TO A MAXIMUM SPEED OF 90KT. DUDZAI IS THEREFORE BACK
AGAIN TO THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE AMSR2 IMAGE FROM
GCOM-W AT 0844UTC SHOWS A SOLID EYE WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATING WEAK NORTHWEST SHEAR.

REGARDING THE TRACK, DUDZAI CONTINUES ITS PATH WESTWARD OR EVEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN CONNECTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THIS
RIDGE AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. AT THIS STAGE, THE EUROPEAN
DETERMINISTIC MODEL IFS IS ISOLATED FROM ITS ENSEMBLE AND THE REST OF
THE MODELS WITH A SCENARIO MOVING MORE WESTWARD, WHILE THE AMERICAN
GFS IS ISOLATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES AS WELL AS THE AI ENSEMBLE
MODELS. AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, DUDZAI WILL CONTINUE HEADING
SOUTHWEST, WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCARENES, WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF FORECASTS AGREEING ON THIS POINT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL
TOMORROW, WITH WESTERN SECTOR SHEARING THAT WILL STABILISE THE
SYSTEM'S INTENSITY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THE SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD CAUSE IT TO RESPOND QUICKLY TO THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WITH A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY. ON SUNDAY, A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE, WHICH SHOULD MODERATE THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE SOUTH OF THE
MASCARENES, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO RE-INTENSIFY WILL BE
LOWER GIVEN THE COOLER OCEAN WATERS. THE DISPERSION OF INTENSITY
FORECASTS FOR THE SYSTEM RELATIVE TO THIS TRACK IS NOW LOW, BUT A
MINORITY TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST OR SOUTHEAST COULD EXTEND THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.