TCFA - 新喀里多尼亚西北14U(94P) - 17.1S 159.3E

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Tropical Low 14U
A tropical low (14U) is developing west of New Caledonia. High chance of developing into a tropical cyclone next week.

• A tropical low (14U) lies to the west of New Caledonia.
• There is a Low chance that 14U will develop into a tropical cyclone from the weekend, increasing to a Moderate chance from Sunday evening and a High chance from Tuesday.
• 14U is expected to remain well to the east of the Australian mainland, but may enter the far eastern parts of the Australian region over the weekend or early next week.
• Mid next week, the system may start to take a track to the southeast and move closer to Norfolk Island. However, there does remains uncertainty in the track and development from early next week.
• Residents on Norfolk Island should monitor forecasts for updates.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:32 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Sat 17  Jan 11:00 am

Sat 17  Jan 11:00 pm

Sun 18  Jan 11:00 am

Sun 18  Jan 11:00 pm

Mon 19  Jan 11:00 am

Mon 19  Jan 11:00 pm

Tue 20  Jan 11:00 am

Tue 20  Jan 11:00 pm

Wed 21  Jan 11:00 am

Wed 21  Jan 11:00 pm

Thu 22  Jan 11:00 am

Thu 22  Jan 11:00 pm

Tropical Low 14U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

55 (High)

55 (High)

45 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 151227
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 15/1130Z
C. 18.58S
D. 160.92E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/27HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析升至T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 151510
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 15/1430Z
C. 18.62S
D. 161.09E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/30HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   15/1026Z  18.58S  160.92E  MMHS
   15/1105Z  18.78S  160.97E  MMHS
   15/1128Z  18.72S  160.92E  GPMI
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 151800
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 15/1730Z
C. 18.42S
D. 161.02E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   15/1439Z  18.80S  161.02E  AMS2
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 152056
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 15/2030Z
C. 18.52S
D. 161.32E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS A
3.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 160011
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 15/2330Z
C. 18.38S
D. 160.71E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/21HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN
75NM OF OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AND
PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析T1.0

TXPS26 KNES 160033
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B.  15/2330Z
C.  18.4S
D.  161.6E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT=1.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析降至T1.0/1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 160309
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 16/0230Z
C. 18.23S
D. 160.55E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   16/0052Z  18.52S  160.75E  GPMI
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160152ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 160300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.7S 159.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 387 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH SPARSE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 160251Z AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POOR UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 TO
28C). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 94P BEING QUASISTATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T1.0/1.5，SSD分析TOO WEAK

TPPS11 PGTW 160548
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 16/0530Z
C. 18.31S
D. 160.54E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   16/0052Z  18.52S  160.75E  GPMI
   RUCKER

TXPS26 KNES 160607
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B.  16/0530Z
C.  18.7S
D.  160.3E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  TOO WEAK
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK
OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING