关岛西南92W - 11.0N 142.9E - 逐渐西行 - JMA:LPA

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JMA今天凌晨予想天气图预报+24h、+48h均维持LPA

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ECMWF 12Z系集，仍然只有个别成员支持一定程度发展

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JMA 18Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 08N 145E NW SLOWLY.

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GFS 18Z仍然不支持明显发展

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ECMWF 18Z系集，仍然只有个别成员支持一定程度发展

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JMA 00Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 143E NW SLOWLY.

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今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

Ragasa

ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.9N 145.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5S 166.9E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.6S 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS), WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT ALIGNED WITH
CONSOLIDATION OR INTENSIFICATION TIMELINE, WITH GFS SHOWING SLOW
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHEREAS ECMWF HAS 90P
DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ILLUSTRATE A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SCENARIO, WITH BOTH GEFS AND ECENS CHARACTERIZING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TOWARD 35 KTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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GFS 00Z仍然不支持明显发展

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JMA今天下午予想天气图预报+24h维持LPA，+48h消散