莫桑比克海峡中等热带风暴第10号“盖扎尼”(21S.Gezani) - 西行近岸爆发穿越马达加斯加中部，进入莫峡再度增强，尔后或在莫峡南部回旋 - MAX MFR:100KT JTWC:110KT

pocketbox

WTXS21 PGTW 050730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 62.1E TO 16.0S 60.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 62.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 477 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD
TURN TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES
A STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060730Z.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析降至T1.5/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 050915
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 05/0830Z
C. 13.82S
D. 61.90E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF
OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 2.0.
PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T1.5/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 051149
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF MAURITIUS)
B. 05/1130Z
C. 14.11S
D. 61.52E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF
OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 051230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10

2.A POSITION 2026/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 61.4 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/06 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2026/02/06 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 95

36H: 2026/02/07 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 65

48H: 2026/02/07 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 110

60H: 2026/02/08 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2026/02/08 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/09 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2026/02/10 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
REMAINED WELL DEFINED AND HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL, WITH AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTEX AND CONVECTION SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP SHEAR. A 0758Z
OCEANSAT-3 PASS SHOWS WINDS OF ONLY 25 KT, IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT
NWP OUTPUT SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WEAKENING COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE
TO A WEAKER MONSOON FLOW AND THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S MORE SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
STAGE WITH WINDS OF 25 KT.

REGARDING THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWEST, STEERED BY HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE
REMNANTS OF SYSTEM FYTIA SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES. AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES, IT IS BEING INFLUENCED BY HIGHER ALTITUDE FLOWS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY, TRAPPED IN A BAROMETRIC COL
BETWEEN TWO MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGES. FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WHILE CIRCULATING AT A STILL UNCERTAIN
DISTANCE FROM THE GREAT  MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE AVAILABLE
DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND AI MODELS REMAIN QUITE DISPERSED ON THE
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN AND MAKE THE FORECAST OF THE TRACK
UNCERTAIN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DELAYING THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION AT LEAST UNTIL MIDDAY
ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, DECREASING SHEAR
COULD ENABLE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE. ON SATURDAY, MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY MID-SHEAR
MAKES THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN. MODEL SPREAD THEN BECOMES VERY HIGH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS AS
POLAR DIVERGENCE IMPROVES AND MID-SHEAR WEAKENS. IT COULD REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM SUNDAY, OR EVEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF ITS INTENSIFICATION IS
STILL UNCLEAR AMIDST THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
DELAYED IN THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

SAINT BRANDON:
- GALE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.5/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 051450
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF MAURITIUS)
B. 05/1430Z
C. 14.26S
D. 61.36E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF
OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AND YIELDS
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   05/0901Z  13.93S  61.88E  AMS2
   05/1228Z  14.12S  61.45E  GPMI
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721ZFEB2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051751ZFEB2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET
BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD TURN
TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES A
STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050730) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 126.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 24 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL AS A 051352Z METOP B 89V MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LLCC, RADAR FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY DISPLACED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT TAKES A
MORE COASTAL POSITION. A 051356Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS
(20-25 KTS) ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST IVO ADELE ISLAND THESE ARE
VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON ADELE ISLAND AT 051700Z READING
21KT WITH GUSTS OF 30KT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15KTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM COASTAL WATERS (28-29C).
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE
CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND
INTENSIFYING ALONG THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 12-
24HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS PGTW 051800)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析升回T2.0/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 051815
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF MAURITIUS)
B. 05/1730Z
C. 14.51S
D. 61.15E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF
COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   05/1228Z  14.12S  61.45E  GPMI
   05/1411Z  14.30S  61.37E  MMWI
   TIMMERMAN

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 051837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10

2.A POSITION 2026/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 61.1 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/06 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/06 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/07 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 85

48H: 2026/02/07 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 100

60H: 2026/02/08 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2026/02/08 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/09 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2026/02/10 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
REMAINED WELL DEFINED AND KEPT ITS SYMMETRY, WITH AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX AND CONVECTION SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP SHEAR. A 1645Z ASCAT B AND
1719Z ASCAT-C PASSES SHOW WINDS OF ONLY 25 KT, AS CONVECTION MOVES
CLOSER TO THE CENTER. DUE TO THE MORE SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE AND THE
RESUMPTION OF CONVECTION, THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE STAGE WITH WINDS OF 25 KT.

REGARDING THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWEST, STEERED BY HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE
REMNANTS OF SYSTEM FYTIA SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES. AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES, IT IS BEING INFLUENCED BY HIGHER ALTITUDE FLOWS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY, TRAPPED IN A BAROMETRIC COL
BETWEEN TWO MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGES. FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WHILE CIRCULATING AT A STILL UNCERTAIN
DISTANCE FROM THE GREAT  MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE AVAILABLE
DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND AI MODELS REMAIN QUITE DISPERSED ON THE
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN AND MAKE THE FORECAST OF THE TRACK
UNCERTAIN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DELAYING THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION AT LEAST UNTIL MIDDAY
ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, DECREASING SHEAR
COULD ENABLE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE. ON SATURDAY, MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY MID-SHEAR
MAKES THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN. MODEL SPREAD THEN BECOMES VERY HIGH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS AS
POLAR DIVERGENCE IMPROVES AND MID-SHEAR WEAKENS. IT COULD REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, OR EVEN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF ITS
INTENSIFICATION IS STILL UNCLEAR AMIDST THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DELAYED IN THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

SAINT BRANDON:
- GALE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY.=

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T2.0/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 052101
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF MAURITIUS)
B. 05/2030Z
C. 14.92S
D. 60.71E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
2.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 060107
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10

2.A POSITION 2026/02/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 60.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/06 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 100

24H: 2026/02/07 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

36H: 2026/02/07 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

48H: 2026/02/08 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

60H: 2026/02/08 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/02/09 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/10 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2026/02/11 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED AND COVERED THE
CENTER, WHICH IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE GCOM-W
MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2133Z ALLOWED US TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX
AT THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES
T AND CI AT 2.5 DUE TO THE RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER,
INDICATING A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ACCORDING
TO CIMSS ANALYSES, DEEP AND MEDIUM WIND SHEAR REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AND
THE SYSTEM CAN ONLY INTENSIFY SLOWLY FOR THE MOMENT. THE WIND
INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE BEEN INCREASED TO 30KT AND THE SYSTEM IS
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

REGARDING THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWEST, STEERED BY HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE
REMNANTS OF SYSTEM FYTIA SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES. AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES, IT IS BEING INFLUENCED BY HIGHER ALTITUDE FLOWS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY, TRAPPED IN A BAROMETRIC COL
BETWEEN TWO MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGES. FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WHILE CIRCULATING AT A STILL UNCERTAIN
DISTANCE FROM THE GREAT  MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE AVAILABLE
DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND AI MODELS REMAIN QUITE DISPERSED ON THE
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN AND MAKE THE FORECAST OF THE TRACK
UNCERTAIN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DELAYING THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, DECREASING SHEAR
COULD ENABLE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE. ON SATURDAY, MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY MID-SHEAR
MAKES THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN. MODEL SPREAD THEN BECOMES VERY HIGH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS AS
POLAR DIVERGENCE IMPROVES AND MID-SHEAR WEAKENS. IT COULD REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM MONDAY, OR EVEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF ITS INTENSIFICATION IS
STILL UNCLEAR AMIDST THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
DELAYED IN THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

SAINT BRANDON:
- GALE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY.

MAURICE:
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.