帕劳西北热带低压02W - 数值支持发展，西行趋向菲律宾 - JMA:GW

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 12Z发布GW，首报上望35KT

WTPQ50 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  031200UTC 09.6N 134.5E POOR
MOVE  WNW 10KT
PRES  1004HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  041200UTC 08.6N 131.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE  WSW 08KT
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
48HF  051200UTC 08.2N 127.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE  W 10KT
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
72HF  061200UTC 10.1N 122.8E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

桑美和伊欧凯

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-2-3 21:11
JMA 12Z发布GW，首报上望35KT

支持命名但撑不到菲西

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及FNV3 06Z系集，部分成员继续支持发展

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 031400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031400Z-040600ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0N 140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 111 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING,
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION BUT FOCUSED
IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT. A PARTIAL 031203Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE LLCC, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXTENDING ALL ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK, AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (25KTS TO 35KTS) ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN FLANK. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED IN THE FAR NORTHERN END OF A
THE HIGHLY ELONGATED, BEAN-SHAPED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE QUICK
DEVELOPMENT OF 94W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALSO AGREE IN A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 031400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

pocketbox 发表于 2026-2-3 22:15
ABPW10 PGTW 031400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL  ...

注意到JTWC评级图再次出现错误，94W变成了94S

Enceladus

pocketbox

WTPH20 RPMM 031200
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 01
ISSUED AT 1200UTC, 03 FEBRUARY 2026 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002HPA
AT 1200UTC, PSTN 10.1N 134.7E MOV W 5KT
MXWD 30KT NEAR CTR

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 040000UTC
PSTN 09.3N 132.6E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 30KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 041200UTC
PSTN 08.8N 131.2E, PRES 1000HPA, MWXD 35KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 050000UTC
PSTN 08.4N 129.4E, PRES 1000HPA, MWXD 35KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 051200UTC
PSTN 08.6N 127.0E, PRES 1000HPA, MWXD 35KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 060000UTC
PSTN 09.2N 124.7E, PRES 1000HPA, MWXD 35KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 061200UTC
PSTN 10.2N 122.7E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 30KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 071200UTC
PSTN 11.5N 121.3E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 30KT
120-HOUR FCST VLD AT 081200UTC
PSTN 12.1N 119.8E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 30KT

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 10.1N 134.7E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 031800UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.5

TPPN10 PGTW 031526
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (N OR PALAU)
B. 03/1430Z
C. 9.53N
D. 134.52E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

红豆棒冰冰

昨天晚间ASCAT风场扫描显示环流中心在帕劳附近

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-2-4 00:04
JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.5

JTWC稍早前修改分析

TPPN10 PGTW 031646 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (N OF PALAU)
B. 03/1431Z
C. 9.53N
D. 134.52E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5.
DBO DT. CORRECTED MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER