|
|
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-28 22:30 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 21.1S 173.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 173.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.1S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 26.7S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 31.0S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 174.2E.
28FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 281500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR
- 008//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 21.1S 173.2E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 344 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 23P (URMIL) WITH ITS COMPLETELY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
- (CDO). A LOW-TO-MODERATE (15-20 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
- (VWS) IS INDUCING A PRONOUNCED ASYMMETRY IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE,
- THEREBY BEGINNING TO DISPLACE THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE
- SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THIS, A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
- ARCHITECTURE REMAINS ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY THROUGHOUT THE POLEWARD
- QUADRANTS. FURTHER ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
- SITUATED OVER A REGION OF FAVORABLY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE
- TEMPERATURES (SSTS), OFFSET HOWEVER BY THE INCREASING INTRUSION OF A
- DRIER, MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE INITIAL
- POSITION IS RENDERED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A 281141Z GPM GMI
- MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED
- WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, DERIVED FROM A SYNTHESIS OF THE AVAILABLE
- OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
- EAST
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 281130Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 65 KTS AT 281130Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 34 KTS AT 281142Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 59 KTS AT 281200Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND NORTH
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC URMIL IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTWARD
- TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT FORECAST, GOVERNED BY THE DEEP-LAYER
- STEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
- TO ITS EAST. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO BE MARGINAL
- AND ALLOWING FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY AN
- EXPECTED PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KTS REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
- AROUND OR PRIOR TO TAU 24, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO PHASE
- WITH A TRANSIENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, A PROCESS THAT WILL INITIATE A
- SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). A PRONOUNCED AMPLIFICATION OF THE VWS IS
- PROJECTED, REACHING 40+ KTS BY TAU 36. THIS WILL OCCUR CONCURRENTLY
- WITH THE SYSTEM TRANSITING OVER A DECREASING OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
- GRADIENT, WITH SSTS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 26 C. COUPLED WITH
- AGGRESSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THIS WILL INITIATE A SUSTAINED
- ATTENUATION TREND. THE STT IS FORECAST TO CONCLUDE BY TAU 36, AS TC
- 23P BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE
- PROPAGATING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: A HIGH DEGREE OF CONGRUENCE IS EVIDENT AMONGST
- THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE, WITH NEGLIGIBLE LATITUDINAL AND
- LONGITUDINAL DISPERSION. THIS SUPPORTS A HIGH-CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT
- FOR THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
- MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LEANING CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE FROM ECMWF
- AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE, WHICH PROVED TO INITIALIZE BEST DURING THE
- MOST RECENT ANALYSIS. WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY, A MINOR DEGREE OF
- DISCREPANCY EXISTS IN THE INITIAL 12 HOURS OF ANALYSIS, WITH GFS AND
- STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS PRESENTING A MORE CONSERVATIVE, SLIGHTLY
- WEAKENING TREND. HAFS, HWRF, COAMPS-TC AND GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ALLOW
- ROOM FOR MINOR BUMP IN INTENSITY REACHING 70 KTS. ALL GUIDANCE IS
- UNIFIED IN DEPICTING A WEAKENING PHASE OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS,
- WITH A TIGHTLY-PACKED ENVELOPE EXHIBITING ONLY A 5 KT SPREAD.
- COINCIDENT WITH THE ONSET OF STT, THE ULTIMATE DISSIPATION OF TC
- 23P IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
- ACCORDINGLY, THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RENDERED WITH
- OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册
×
|
楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-2-28 17:00
