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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-19 17:10 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.6S 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.6S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.6S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.6S 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.0S 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.5S 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.2S 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 146.0E.
19MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
202 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 933 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 190900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
- NR 006//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 13.6S 146.5E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 202 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS,
- AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 39 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) WITH A WELL-DEFINED AND INCREASINGLY
- CLEAR EYE-FEATURE (12 NM IN DIAMETER), SURROUNDED BY UNIFORM AND
- TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTION. SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, TC 27P HAS
- CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY TO 125 KTS, DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
- SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONTINUED
- FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29
- C, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND MODERATE VWS. THE INITIAL
- POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
- OBSERVABLE EYE-FEATURE ON ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
- BEEN ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MIXTURE OF
- SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
- ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE CLOUD CANOPY TOPS
- SURROUNDING THE EVIDENT EYE HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST FEW
- HOURS TO 84 C, WHILE THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS INCREASED
- CONSIDERABLY, TO 11 C AT 190730Z.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST, OVER WESTERN
- AUSTRALIA
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
- KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS
- ABRF: T6.5 - 127 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 128 KTS AT 190355Z
- CIMSS ADT: 137 KTS AT 190530Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 130 KTS AT 190530Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 130 KTS AT 190607Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 131 KTS AT 190600Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
- WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
- OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
- BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR
- POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
- RETREAT SOUTHEASTWARD, ALLOWING TC 27P TO BEGIN TRACKING
- WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING
- INTENSITY, TC NARELLE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD 115 KTS
- BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED
- EYEWALL APPROACHES EASTERN QUEENSLAND BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 18 AS
- MODERATE VWS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS PERSISTS DURING THE SHORT-TERM
- FORECAST. FOLLOWING INITIAL LANDFALL, SURFACE INTENSITIES WILL
- CONTINUE TO DECREASE TOWARD 80 KTS BY TAU 24 AS VWS NEARS 20 KTS AND
- LAND INTERACTION PERSISTS. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, TC 27P IS
- FORECASTED TO REEMERGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITH A
- RELATIVELY BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION AND WEAKENED SURFACE INTENSITIES
- TOWARD 70 KTS. DURING THE SYSTEMS WESTWARD TRANSIT THROUGH THE
- CENTRAL GULF OF CARPENTARIA, GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA
- SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED VWS TO LESS THAN 15 KTS. AS TC 27P
- CONTINUES WESTWARD, A SECOND LANDFALL IS FORECASTED ALONG THE
- EASTERN COASTLINE OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORY WITH INTENSITIES NEAR
- 80 KTS. TC 27P WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
- OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORY WHILE PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION WILL
- WEAKEN SURFACE INTENSITIES TO 60 KTS BY TAU 72. FOLLOWING TAU 72, A
- BRIEF TREK ACROSS THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY
- CONSIDERABLE OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE A THIRD
- LANDFALL IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN EXTENT OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA. NEAR
- TAU 108, TC 27P WILL REEMERGE OVER OPEN WATER, OFF THE NORTHWEST
- COAST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH SURFACE INTENSITIES NEAR 40 KTS. DUE
- TO PROLONGED PERIODS OF LAND INTERACTION BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU
- 120, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED; HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
- EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF WESTERN
- AUSTRALIA, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
- AFTER TAU 120.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
- AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
- OF 42 NM AT TAU 72, INCREASING TO 84 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK
- FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
- FORECAST PERIOD, ALIGNED CLOSELY TO THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL TRACK
- CONSENSUS. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION
- REMAINS AN OUTLIER THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM, ILLUSTRATING A SHARP
- WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY
- OF OTHER SOLUTIONS CHARACTERIZE SIMILAR EXPECTED INTENSITIES, WITH
- GRADUAL WEAKENING INTO TAU 12, AND A QUICKER WEAKENING TREND
- THEREAFTER DUE TO THE EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION PHASE OVER
- QUEENSLAND. LATER IN THE FORECAST, COAMPS-TC CHARACTERIZES A RAPID
- INTENSIFICATION PHASE WHILE TC 27P TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
- OF CARPENTARIA. THEREFORE, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
- ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AND ALIGNED JUST ABOVE THE JTWC
- MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ragasa
发表于 2026-3-19 10:00
发表于 2026-3-19 13:51
