TCFA - 关岛东南93W - 7.7N 149.7E - 逐渐西行，数值支持发展 - JMA:GW

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As of 8:00 AM today, 05 May 2026, the Low Pressure area (LPA 05a) being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, another Low Pressure area (LPA 05b) is being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and now has a "HIGH" chance of developing into a Tropical Depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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JMA 00Z升格TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 149E WEST SLOWLY.

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今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

dgitg5266

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 149E WEST SLOWLY.

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JTWC 03Z分析升至T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 050246
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (W OF CHUUK)
B. 05/0230Z
C. 8.02N
D. 149.33E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 050330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/050330Z-050600ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.6N 150.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 149.7E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND INCREASING FORMATIVE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT CYCLONICALLY INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 15 KTS, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-30 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES, HOWEVER, THE
DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAVOR OF A MORE RAPID AND INTENSE
CONSOLIDATION, WHEREAS DETERMINISTIC MODELS INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE PHILIPPINE SEA. ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE DRY AIR AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTORS
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMS WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH//
NNNN

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GFS 00Z略有调弱，巅峰约994百帕

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ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZMAY2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050321ZMAY2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.6N 150.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 149.7E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND INCREASING FORMATIVE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT CYCLONICALLY INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 15 KTS, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-30 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES, HOWEVER, THE
DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAVOR OF A MORE RAPID AND INTENSE
CONSOLIDATION, WHEREAS DETERMINISTIC MODELS INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE PHILIPPINE SEA. ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE DRY AIR AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTORS
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMS WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 050330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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JTWC 06Z分析维持T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 050607
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (W OF CHUUK)
B. 05/0530Z
C. 7.87N
D. 149.20E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

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SSD 06Z分析亦维持T2.0

TXPQ23 KNES 050612
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)
B.  05/0530Z
C.  7.6N
D.  149.5E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. THE MET AND PT ARE
2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING