马里亚纳群岛2604号超强台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 风眼快速打开清空，或重创塞班岛 - NMC:70m/s JMA:115KT JTWC:160KT

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 06Z预报短期内将向偏北转北偏东方向移动

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T5.0/5.5

TPPN10 PGTW 151149
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 15/1130Z
C. 16.14N
D. 144.62E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   15/0800Z  16.02N  144.75E  MMWI
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 12Z分析

- Sinlaku (2604) -
Position: 16.16N 144.58E
Motion: NW (307°), 2.06m/s
DT: 5.5       PT: 5.5
MET: 5.5    W0.5/24HRS
CI: 6.5        FT: 5.5 b.o. DT

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析升至T6.0/6.0

TXPQ22 KNES 151239
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  15/1130Z
C.  16.2N
D.  144.5E
E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T6.0/6.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN AN
E# OF 5.0 AND AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 1.0 FOR A DT OF 6.0. THE MET IS 5.5
BASED ON STEADY 24 HR TREND AND THE PT AGREES. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...EVANS

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 06Z系集

hei

又換眼了

桑美和伊欧凯

关岛雨水显著减弱，天宁岛和塞班岛雨势还要持续一段时间

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T5.0/5.5

TPPN10 PGTW 151442
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 15/1430Z
C. 16.32N
D. 144.55E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY DG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场扫到外围

红豆棒冰冰

今天晚间ASCAT风场扫描