马里亚纳群岛2604号超强台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 风眼快速打开清空，或重创塞班岛 - NMC:70m/s JMA:115KT JTWC:160KT

洲納

森拉克北上的征途仍在继续，无论如何，感谢你的精彩表演，又一次展现了西北太平洋的无限潜力（冒泡

红豆棒冰冰

HKO 12Z维持175km/h

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 12Z继续预报短期内将向偏北转北偏东方向移动

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 18Z分析

- Sinlaku (2604) -
Position: 16.70N 144.52E
Motion: NW (336°), 2.06m/s
DT: 5.5       PT: 6.0
MET: 6.0    S0.0/24HRS
CI: 6.5        FT: 5.5 b.o. DT

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析降至T5.0/6.0

TXPQ22 KNES 151800
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  15/1730Z
C.  16.6N
D.  144.6E
E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T5.0/6.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG RING AND EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS
A DT OF 5.0 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET AND PT ARE 5.0
BASED ON A 24HR SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析T5.5/6.0

TPPN10 PGTW 151808
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 15/1730Z
C. 16.66N
D. 144.47E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T5.5/6.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   15/1541Z  16.65N  144.13E  ATMS
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

HKO 18Z维持175km/h

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z继续预报短期内将向偏北转北偏东方向移动

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z分析

- Sinlaku (2604) -
Position: 17.12N 144.46E
Motion: NW (352°), 2.06m/s
DT: 5.0       PT: 5.0
MET: 5.0    W0.5/24HRS
CI: 6.0        FT: 5.0 b.o. DT