马里亚纳群岛2604号超强台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 风眼快速打开清空，或重创塞班岛 - NMC:70m/s JMA:115KT JTWC:160KT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析T5.0/6.0

TPPN10 PGTW 152352
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 15/2330Z
C. 17.04N
D. 144.41E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T5.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT
YIELDS 5.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   15/1910Z  16.68N  144.42E  SSMS
   15/1959Z  16.85N  144.40E  SSMS
   15/2011Z  16.88N  144.43E  SARI
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析降至T4.5/5.5

TXPQ22 KNES 160006
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  15/2330Z
C.  17.1N
D.  144.5E
E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T4.5/5.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG RING AND EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS
A DT OF 4.5. THE MET AND PT ARE 5.0 BASED ON A 24HR SLOW WEAKENING
TREND. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

红豆棒冰冰

今天凌晨SAR扫到93kt

pocketbox

https://earth.jaxa.jp/ja/earthview/2026/04/16/9212/index.html

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 18Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

HKO 00Z降至165km/h

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T5.0/5.5

TPPN10 PGTW 160253
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 16/0230Z
C. 17.25N
D. 144.36E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场成功扫中中心

红豆棒冰冰

HKO热带气旋路径概率预报图（2026年4月16日更新）

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z继续预报短期内将向偏北转北偏东方向移动