马里亚纳群岛2604号超强台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 风眼快速打开清空，或重创塞班岛 - NMC:70m/s JMA:115KT JTWC:160KT

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析降至T4.0/5.0

TXPQ22 KNES 161151
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  16/1130Z
C.  18.3N
D.  144.8E
E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T4.0/5.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY DG (EADJ=0.0) AND EMBEDDED IN OW
(ENO=4.0) RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. THE MET IS 4.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING 24 HOUR TREND. THE PT IS 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...MONAGHAN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析降至T4.5/5.0

TPPN10 PGTW 161154
A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 16/1130Z
C. 18.27N
D. 144.76E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.4 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 06Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

今天晚间ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T4.5/5.0

TPPN10 PGTW 161449
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 16/1430Z
C. 18.60N
D. 144.88E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 5.5. PT
YIELDS 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON