马里亚纳群岛2604号超强台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 风眼快速打开清空，或重创塞班岛 - NMC:70m/s JMA:115KT JTWC:160KT

Enceladus

虽然Dvorak形态已经崩掉了，但受于良好的高空环境，系统还是维持着一定的成熟结构

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

HKO 18Z降至130km/h

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T4.5/5.0

TPPN10 PGTW 162110
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 16/2030Z
C. 19.33N
D. 145.30E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.6 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   16/1550Z  18.73N  144.88E  AMS2
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z继续预报短期内将大致向北偏东方向移动

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JMA 00Z分析

- Sinlaku (2604) -
Position: 19.38N 145.34E
Motion: NE (47°), 2.06m/s
DT: 4.5       PT: 4.5
MET: 4.0    W1.0/24HRS
CI: 5.0        FT: 4.5 b.o. DT

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SSD 00Z分析T4.5/4.5

TXPQ22 KNES 170015
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  16/2330Z
C.  19.5N
D.  145.2E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T4.5/4.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY/VIS/SSMIS/GMI
H.  REMARKS...EYE EMBEDDED IN DG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. NO EYE ADJ ADDED
BASED ON WMG CENTER WITH DG RING. MET IS 4.0 DUE TO A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND. PT IS 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    16/1856Z 19.1N 144.9E SSMIS
    16/2226Z 19.3N 145.1E GMI
...ZENG

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JTWC 00Z分析维持T4.5/5.0

TPPN10 PGTW 170024
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 16/2330Z
C. 19.47N
D. 145.28E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.5 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 4.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   16/1855Z  19.00N  145.02E  SSMS
   16/2011Z  19.20N  145.08E  MMWI
   LINDGREN

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ECMWF 18Z系集

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今天早晨ASCAT风场扫到外围