马里亚纳群岛2604号超强台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 风眼快速打开清空，或重创塞班岛 - NMC:70m/s JMA:115KT JTWC:160KT

红豆棒冰冰

HKO 00Z降至120km/h

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T4.5/5.0

TPPN10 PGTW 170323 COR
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 17/0231Z
C. 19.63N
D. 145.39E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.6 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 4.5.
DBO DT. CORRECTED POSITION
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

红豆棒冰冰

HKO热带气旋路径概率预报图（2026年4月17日更新）

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z继续预报短期内将大致向北偏东方向移动

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 06Z分析

- Sinlaku (2604) -
Position: 19.98N 145.80E
Motion: NE (36°), 3.60m/s
DT: 4.0       PT: 4.5
MET: 4.5    W0.5/24HRS
CI: 4.5        FT: 4.0 b.o. DT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析降至T4.0/4.5

TPPN10 PGTW 170557
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 17/0530Z
C. 19.98N
D. 145.70E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 4.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

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SSD 06Z分析亦降至T4.0/4.5

TXPQ22 KNES 170612
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  17/0530Z
C.  20.0N
D.  145.8E
E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T4.0/4.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...A SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A WMG EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED
BY MG AND EMBEDDED WITHIN OW RESULTS IN AN ENO OF 4.0, AN EADJ OF 0.0,
AND A RESULTING DT OF 4.0. THE MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A REGULARLY WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE
DT. SINCE THE PREVIOUS CLASSIFICATION, THE WESTERN HALF OF THE EYEWALL
COLLAPSED AND THEN RE-DEVELOPED AFTER 02Z. A GENERAL WARMING OF CLOUD
TOPS IS ALSO NOTED, OUTSIDE OF VERY RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NE EYEWALL.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...HOSLEY

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ECMWF 00Z系集

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JTWC 09Z分析维持T4.0/4.5

TPPN10 PGTW 170850
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 17/0830Z
C. 20.20N
D. 146.05E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.3 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

hei

Enceladus 发表于 2026-4-17 03:01
虽然Dvorak形态已经崩掉了，但受于良好的高空环境，系统还是维持着一定的成熟结构
...

昨晚還保持到96節有點驚喜(JTWC時評85節)