马里亚纳群岛2604号超强台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 风眼快速打开清空，或重创塞班岛 - NMC:70m/s JMA:115KT JTWC:160KT

桑美和伊欧凯

hei 发表于 2026-4-17 17:38
昨晚還保持到96節有點驚喜(JTWC時評85節)

远离陆地换来的是缓慢减弱，本身环流也大，实际上强度TY以上还是稳坐的

红豆棒冰冰

HKO 06Z维持120km/h

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 06Z继续预报短期内将大致向北偏东方向移动

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 12Z分析

- Sinlaku (2604) -
Position: 20.56N 146.18E
Motion: NE (31°), 3.60m/s
DT: 4.0       PT: 4.0
MET: 4.0    W0.5/24HRS
CI: 4.5        FT: 4.0 b.o. DT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T4.0/4.5

TPPN10 PGTW 171151
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 17/1130Z
C. 20.52N
D. 146.21E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.2 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析亦维持T4.0/4.5

TXPQ22 KNES 171211
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  17/1130Z
C.  20.6N
D.  146.2E
E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T4.0/4.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...RAGGED OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED IN OW RESULTS
IN AN ENO OF 4.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR A DT OF 4.0. THE MET IS 3.5
BASED ON A SLOWLY WEAKENING 24 HR TREND. THE PT IS 4.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...EVANS

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 06Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

今天晚间ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T4.0/4.5

TPPN10 PGTW 171446
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 17/1430Z
C. 21.00N
D. 146.24E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.3 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 4.0.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON