马里亚纳群岛2604号超强台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 风眼快速打开清空，或重创塞班岛 - NMC:70m/s JMA:115KT JTWC:160KT

红豆棒冰冰

HKO 12Z天气图不再标注风速

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 12Z继续预报短期内将大致向北偏东方向移动

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 18Z分析

- Sinlaku (2604) -
Position: 21.34N 146.46E
Motion: NE (18°), 4.12m/s
DT: 3.5       PT: 3.5
MET: 3.0    W1.0/24HRS
CI: 4.0        FT: 3.5 b.o. DT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析T4.0/4.0

TPPN10 PGTW 171745
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 17/1730Z
C. 21.31N
D. 146.56E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 3.5 AND PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析降至T3.5/4.0

TXPQ22 KNES 171808
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  17/1730Z
C.  21.5N
D.  146.5E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T3.5/4.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. THE MET AND PT
ARE 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE THE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT
CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析降至T3.5/4.0

TPPN10 PGTW 172111
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 17/2030Z
C. 21.44N
D. 146.50E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 34NM IN SHEARED DENSE
OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z继续预报短期内将大致向北偏东方向移动

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z分析

- Sinlaku (2604) -
Position: 22.02N 146.60E
Motion: NE (15°), 4.12m/s
DT: 3.0       PT: 3.0
MET: 3.0    W1.5/24HRS
CI: 3.5        FT: 3.0 b.o. DT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T3.5/4.0

TPPN10 PGTW 172352
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 17/2330Z
C. 22.12N
D. 146.56E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 3.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER