阿拉弗拉海热带低压30U(31P)

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-4-22 15:00

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-4-22 15:20 编辑

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0715 UTC 22/04/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 30U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.2S
Longitude: 134.2E
Location Accuracy: within 45nm (85 km)
Movement Towards: west northwest (302 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1005 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC)       : degrees    :    nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  22/1200:  9.7S 133.2E:    055 (105):  030  (055): 1008
+12:  22/1800:  9.4S 132.5E:    065 (120):  030  (055): 1005
+18:  23/0000:  9.1S 131.9E:    075 (135):  030  (055): 1005
+24:  23/0600:  8.8S 131.3E:    080 (145):  030  (055): 1005
+36:  23/1800:  8.2S 130.8E:    095 (175):  030  (055): 1004
+48:  24/0600:  7.9S 131.0E:    105 (190):  025  (045): 1006
+60:  24/1800:  8.2S 131.8E:    105 (200):  025  (045): 1007
+72:  25/0600:  8.9S 132.6E:    110 (205):  025  (045): 1007
+96:  26/0600: 10.1S 133.8E:    160 (295):  025  (045): 1007
+120: 27/0600: 10.6S 133.0E:    190 (355):  025  (045): 1006
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 30U is moving northwest in the Arafura Sea. Deep convection has
persisteed near the disorganised LLCC, though shows limited curvature.

Position based on animated visible satellite imagery with low confidence.

Dvorak analysis: DT = 1.5 based on curved band pattern with 0.3 wrap. MET is
1.5 based on a 24 hour S trend, adjusted PAT to 2.0. FT is 2.0 based on PAT
with CI also 2.0. Objective guidance at 0600 UTC (1 minute means): ADT 35 kn,
AiDT 30 kn, DPRINT 30 kn, D-MINT 34 kn (0504 UTC), SATCON 42 kn. Intensity is
30 kn based on earlier scatterometry showing stronger winds under deep
convection on the western periphery.

Environmental conditions are marginally favourable. SSTs are 28-29C along the
forecast track, there is ample atmospheric moisture and an upper trough to the
south enhancing poleward outflow. CIMSS analysed shear at 0600 UTC is 16 kn
from the east however, and is expected to increase further. With the lack of
organisation currently observed it is unlikely there will be sufficient
opportunity for 30U to intensify into a tropical cyclone before the increasing
shear makes the environment unfavourable for development.

A low to mid-level anticyclone is steering 30U to the northwest. Strengthening
upper-level easterlies on Thursday will cause 30U to become a shallower system
that then moves back towards the southeast on Friday under the influence of a
mid-level trough passing to the south.

An upper-level trough that passes to the south on the weekend may provide
another opportunity for 30U to strengthen as shear reduces again.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1330 UTC.

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm April 22	tropical low	10.2S	134.2E	85
+6hr	10 pm April 22	tropical low	9.7S	133.2E	105
+12hr	4 am April 23	tropical low	9.4S	132.5E	120
+18hr	10 am April 23	tropical low	9.1S	131.9E	135
+24hr	4 pm April 23	tropical low	8.8S	131.3E	145
+36hr	4 am April 24	tropical low	8.2S	130.8E	175
+48hr	4 pm April 24	tropical low	7.9S	131.0E	190
+60hr	4 am April 25	tropical low	8.2S	131.8E	200
+72hr	4 pm April 25	tropical low	8.9S	132.6E	205

yhh · 发表于 2025-4-22 16:15

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-4-22 17:15 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 10.3S 134.0E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 134.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 9.6S 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 9.2S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 8.6S 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 8.3S 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 133.6E.
22APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
225 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220600Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE)
WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.3S 134.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 225 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEARLY COMPLETELY
OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
VISIBLE THROUGH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
ADDITIONALLY, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), DEEP-LAYER
TROPICAL MOISTURE, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPOSED NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC, IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM AN
EARLIER (220102Z) METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWING CURVATURE AND WRAPPING
WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, AS WELL AS AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED
FIXES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
ADRM: T2.0 - 30 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 220610Z
CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 220610Z
CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 220610Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 34 KTS AT 220504Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 220610Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 31P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD, FOLLOWING THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE
SOUTH. AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE,
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH 35 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY A PEAK OF 35-40 KTS BEFORE TAU 36. AFTER THAT, AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE INDONESIAN TANIMBAR ISLANDS, INCREASING VWS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HINDER DEVELOPMENT. AROUND THAT TIME, TC 31P WILL
FIND ITSELF WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AS A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST WILL IMPACT THE TRACK. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STALL AROUND TAU 48, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
DISSIPATING OVER WATER. IF THE VORTEX MANAGES TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTEGRITY, THERE IS HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGENERATE
AROUND TAU 60, BUT MAJORITY OF THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE THIS AT THIS TIME.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY NAVGEM
BEING AN OUTLIER AND SUGGESTING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK, WITH A TURN
TOWARD DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU 48. ALL OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
PREDICTS A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE TANIMBAR ISLANDS AND THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WHILE BEING
PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
48 IS 70 NM, EXCLUDING NAVGEM. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS 60 NM,
INDICATING TRANSLATION SPEED REDUCTION TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JTWC FORECAST IS ASSESSED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, DUE TO LARGE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY. FRIA RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 25-35 PERCENT RI PROBABILITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE COAMPS-TC IS ALSO ON THE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM, PREDICTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF OVER 45 KTS
AROUND TAU 48, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PEAK OF 65 KTS BEYOND 120 HOURS.
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS MIRROR THE GUIDANCE OF COAMPS-TC. ON THE
OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM, DETERMINISTIC GFS AND HAFS INDICATE LACK
OF DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION WITHIN THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WITHIN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LEANING CLOSER TOWARD
THE GUIDANCE OF GFS AND HAFS, CONSIDERING THE CURRENT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION, AS WELL AS INCREASING SHEAR, HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-4-22 20:48

本帖最后由 iam最小值于 2025-4-23 01:25 编辑

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1320 UTC 22/04/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 30U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.0S
Longitude: 133.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west northwest (289 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1005 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1009 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm (150 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC)       : degrees    :    nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  22/1800:  9.8S 132.2E:    040 (080):  030  (055): 1005
+12:  23/0000:  9.4S 131.5E:    050 (095):  030  (055): 1004
+18:  23/0600:  8.8S 131.0E:    060 (110):  030  (055): 1004
+24:  23/1200:  8.5S 130.9E:    065 (120):  030  (055): 1003
+36:  24/0000:  8.1S 131.0E:    080 (150):  030  (055): 1002
+48:  24/1200:  8.2S 131.2E:    095 (180):  025  (045): 1005
+60:  25/0000:  8.9S 131.7E:    110 (200):  025  (045): 1006
+72:  25/1200:  9.4S 132.6E:    130 (240):  025  (045): 1006
+96:  26/1200: 10.2S 133.5E:    165 (305):  025  (045): 1006
+120: 27/1200: 10.8S 132.7E:    200 (370):  025  (045): 1005
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 30U is moving northwest in the Arafura Sea. Deep convection has
weakened, and no organisation of deep cloud is evident.

Position based on radar and animated satellite imagery with moderate
confidence.

Dvorak analysis: As the deep convection has weakened, there is no longer a
suitable Dvorak pattern to apply to the current satellite imagery. MET is 1.5
based on a 24 hour S trend, with no adjustment. FT is 1.5 based on MET with CI
held at 2.0 for initial weakening and for the potential convection
redevelopment that could occur with the diurnal maximum over the next 6 to 12
hours. Objective guidance at 1200 UTC (1 minute means): ADT 41 kn, AiDT 35 kn,
DPRINT 28 kn, D-MINT 24 kn (0947 UTC), SATCON 40 kn. Intensity is set at 30 kn
based on earlier scatterometry and a strong consensus of intensity guidance
indicating a 30-knot wind maxima in the southwest quadrant.

Environmental conditions are marginally favourable. SSTs are 28-29C along the
forecast track, there is ample atmospheric moisture and an upper trough to the
south enhancing poleward outflow. CIMSS analysed shear at 1200 UTC is 17 kn
from the east however, and is expected to increase further. With the lack of
organisation and deep convection currently observed it is unlikely there will
be sufficient opportunity for 30U to intensify into a tropical cyclone before
the increasing shear and decreasing Coriolis makes the environment unfavourable
for development.

A low to mid-level anticyclone is steering 30U to the northwest. Strengthening
upper-level easterlies on Thursday will cause 30U to become a shallower system
that then moves back towards the southeast on Friday under the influence of a
mid-level trough passing to the south.

An upper-level trough that passes to the south on the weekend may provide
another opportunity for 30U to strengthen as shear reduces again.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1930 UTC.

Headline:
Tropical Low 30U in the Arafura Sea.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 9:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 10.0 degrees South, 133.1 degrees East , 185 kilometres north of Warruwi and 260 kilometres north northwest of Maningrida .
Movement: west northwest at 17 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Low 30U is in the Arafura Sea where it is expected to remain as a weak tropical low for the remainder of the week.

Details:

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm April 22	tropical low	10.0S	133.1E	55
+6hr	4 am April 23	tropical low	9.8S	132.2E	80
+12hr	10 am April 23	tropical low	9.4S	131.5E	95
+18hr	4 pm April 23	tropical low	8.8S	131.0E	110
+24hr	10 pm April 23	tropical low	8.5S	130.9E	120
+36hr	10 am April 24	tropical low	8.1S	131.0E	150
+48hr	10 pm April 24	tropical low	8.2S	131.2E	180
+60hr	10 am April 25	tropical low	8.9S	131.7E	200
+72hr	10 pm April 25	tropical low	9.4S	132.6E	240

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 4:30 am ACST Wednesday

yhh · 发表于 2025-4-22 22:00

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-4-22 23:15 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.0S 133.2E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.3S 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 8.8S 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.3S 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8S 132.9E.
22APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
202 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
//
NNNN

WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 018A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 018A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.0S 133.2E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.3S 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8S 132.9E.
22APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
202 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER RELEASE OF
THE ORIGINAL WARNING NUMBER EIGHTEEN (WR 018), FURTHER SATELLITE
ANALYSIS REVEALED SIGNIFICANTLY DECAYED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH SURFACE WINDS BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. THE PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE IS NOW 1.5 AND MAJORITY OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AGREES ON FURTHER DECAY OF TC 31P. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 18 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: FORECAST TRUNCATED TO 12 HOURS AND
SYSTEM FINAL WARNED BASED ON 221230Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND THE
ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY.//
NNNN

NaTyphoon · 发表于 2025-4-23 01:28

Final Warning了，JTWC发了这么多报，最终ACE才0.49，其中0.1225还是偷改来的

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-4-23 04:15

AXAU01 ADRM 221910
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1910 UTC 22/04/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 30U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 9.9S
LONGITUDE: 132.7E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST NORTHWEST (281 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 8 KNOTS (14 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 25 KNOTS (45 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS: NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T1.5/1.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1006 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 60 NM (110 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)       : DEGREES    :    NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:       :          :             :          :
+12:  :  :          :       :
+18:       :          :             :          :
+24:       :          :             :          :
+36:       :          :             :          :
+48:       :          :             :          :
+60:       :          :             :          :
+72:       :          :             :          :
+96:       :          :             :          :
+120:       :          :             :          :
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 30U IS MOVING NORTHWEST IN THE ARAFURA SEA. THE LOW HAS SHOWN NO
SIGNS OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

POSITION BASED ON RADAR AND ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE
METOP-B ASCAT PASS AT 1245UTC.

DVORAK ANALYSIS: AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED, THERE IS NO SUITABLE
DVORAK PATTERN TO APPLY TO THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A
24 HOUR W- TREND, WITH NO ADJUSTMENT. FT AND CI ARE 1.5 BASED ON MET.

WITH A REDUCED THREAT OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM, THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
ISSUE OF THE TECHNICAL BULLETIN. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THERE WILL BE NO FURTHER BULLETINS FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS IT REINTENSIFIES.=

Headline:
Tropical Low 30U has weakened but will persist in the Arafura Sea.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 3:30 am ACST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 9.9 degrees South, 132.7 degrees East , 210 kilometres north northwest of Warruwi and 290 kilometres northwest of Maningrida .
Movement: west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Low 30U is in the Arafura Sea where it is expected to remain as a weak tropical low for the remainder of the week.

Details:

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 am April 23	tropical low	9.9S	132.7E	55
+6hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+12hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+18hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+24hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+36hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-4-23 12:45

ABIO10 PGTW 230100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/230100Z-231800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 31P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.3S
129.4E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BURSTING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY DISPLACED EAST OF A DISORGANIZED LLCC. THE REMNANT
VORTEX IS TILTED EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT DUE TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR. A 222054Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED SCATTERED AND HIGHLY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS (10-15KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, BUT ALSO A
LACK OF STRONG VERTICAL INSTABILITY, WHICH HAS PERIODICALLY DISRUPTED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED 31P (THIRTYONE) INFORMATION DUE TO
FINAL WARNING EXPIRATION. ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-4-23 20:50

Tropical Low 30U
Tropical Low 30U slow moving in the western Arafura Sea north of the NT coast. A low risk to develop into a tropical cyclone from Sunday.

Tropical Low 30U is expected to remain in the western Arafura Sea as a weak tropical low over coming days.
The low may move closer to the NT coast this weekend bringing an increase in showers and storms before moving to the west into the Timor Sea by next Tuesday. Strong winds are likely south of the system over the Timor Sea region on Tuesday and Wednesday.
There is a Low (5-10%) likelihood that it develops into a tropical cyclone from this Sunday until next Wednesday.

Last updated
4 hours ago, 08:43 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 10:00 am

Tomorrow 10:00 pm

Fri 25 Apr 10:00 am

Fri 25 Apr 10:00 pm

Sat 26 Apr 10:00 am

Sat 26 Apr 10:00 pm

Sun 27 Apr 10:00 am

Sun 27 Apr 10:00 pm

Mon 28 Apr 10:00 am

Mon 28 Apr 10:00 pm

Tue 29 Apr 10:00 am

Tue 29 Apr 10:00 pm

Wed 30 Apr 10:00 am

Wed 30 Apr 10:00 pm

Tropical Low 30U

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-4-24 05:00

ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/231800Z-
241800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 31P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.3S 129.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-4-24 21:15

Tropical Low 30U
Tropical Low 30U north of the NT coast not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Low 30U is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.
30U is currently in the western Arafura Sea near the Indonesian Tanimbar Islands (part of the South West Maluku Islands). 30U should move closer to the NT coast this weekend bringing an increase in showers and storms before moving to the west into the Timor Sea later on Monday. Strong winds are likely south of the system as 30U moves west over the Timor Sea region.

Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:20 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 26 Apr 12:00 am

Sat 26 Apr 12:00 pm

Sun 27 Apr 12:00 am

Sun 27 Apr 12:00 pm

Mon 28 Apr 12:00 am

Mon 28 Apr 12:00 pm

Tue 29 Apr 12:00 am

Tue 29 Apr 12:00 pm

Wed 30 Apr 12:00 am

Wed 30 Apr 12:00 pm

Thu 1 May 12:00 am

Thu 1 May 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 30U

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

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阿拉弗拉海热带低压30U(31P)

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JTWC：LOW

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