MEDIUM - 印度以西AS 01(93A) - 16.8N 73.3E

理可的呆萌呆毛

看來已經較預期東崩
陸地的影響應該不少

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4N 71.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 221257Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A POORLY
DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPMENT
WITH THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE LAST RUN, AS THE MODEL PACKAGE HAS
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO, OR EVEN MOVING IT INLAND.
THE GEFS AND ECEPS ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO DEPICTING A GENERAL SHIFT
EASTWARD, WITH INCREASING MEMBERS INDICATING A LANDFALL IN THE NEAR-
TERM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO RETURN OVER WATER IN THE
MEDIUM-RANGE. WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO
SHORE OR INLAND, THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE
SHORT-TERM IS LOWERING BUT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T1.5，SSD分析升至T2.0

TPIO10 PGTW 221804
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 22/1730Z
C. 18.36N
D. 72.40E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED (NEAR - UNDER) COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

TXIO22 KNES 221821
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93A)
B.  22/1730Z
C.  18.1N
D.  72.6E
E.  FIVE/MET-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET AND PT BOTH
EQUAL 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO THE BANDING FEATURE NOT
BEING CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

fy6

JTWC 21Z 升T2.0

TPIO10 PGTW 222102
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 22/2030Z
C. 17.58N
D. 72.63E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES LOCATED (NEAR - UNDER) COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0.
BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   22/1518Z  18.12N  72.48E  GPMI
   22/1644Z  17.83N  72.45E  MMHS
   LINDGREN

fy6

卫星云图

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

昨晚至今天凌晨ASCAT风场扫描

fy6

JTWC 00Z 维持T2.0

TPIO10 PGTW 222348
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 22/2330Z
C. 17.94N
D. 72.47E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED (NEAR - UNDER) COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. BOTH MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析亦维持T2.0

TXIO22 KNES 230003
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93A)
B.  22/2330Z
C.  17.8N
D.  72.4E
E.  FIVE/MET-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 2.0 BASED ON
A 24HR SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

fy6

动态卫星云图