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发表于 2025-6-24 11:15
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JTWC/02W/#07/06-24 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-6-24 12:00 编辑
WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 29.3N 141.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 366 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT,
WITH SYMMETRICAL LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO, WITH THE LLCC ONCE AGAIN
BECOMING EXPOSED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHWEST, PINCHED BETWEEN
NORTHERLY FLOW COMING SOUTHWARD FROM JAPAN AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
EMANATING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TUTT-CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 240138Z
GMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS WEAK AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WHILE THE 37GHZ CHANNEL REVEALS SOLID LOW-LEVEL BANDING
FEATURES AND A DEFINED CENTER. COMPARISON OF THE TWO CHANNELS REVEALS
SIGNIFICANT VORTEX TILT, NORTHWARD WITH HEIGHT, DUE TO THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION, IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND EXTRAPOLATION TO THE LLCC
DEFINED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED ABOVE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH SHEAR INCREASING AND OUTFLOW
DECREASING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD, OFFSETTING THE FAVORABLE
OCEAN ENVIRONMENT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 232223Z
CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 232020Z
CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 232020Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 39 KTS AT 232114Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 240100Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT A STEADILY DECREASING SPEED AS IT
APPROACHES THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 24, AND THEREAFTER WILL
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO
BRUSH THE EASTERN COAST OF THE BOSO PENINSULA BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48
AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. DUE TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT
AS WELL AS INCREASING SHEAR, TS 02W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN MAINTAIN THAT INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN
HONSHU. THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM BY TAU 36 AS A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM, JUST BEGINNING THE EARLY PHASES OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). AS THE SYSTEM REACHES CPA TO YOKOSUKA, IT WILL
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE DIVERGENT REGION AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY
TILTED MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE RAPID
INCREASE IN OUTFLOW ALOFT, COUPLED WITH SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING, WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ETT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF TOKYO. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 48 AS IT MOVES INTO PHASE WITH THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
BEGINS TO DEVELOP FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH TAU
48. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES AFTER TAU 48, DURING THE ETT AND RECURVE
PHASE, UP TO APPROXIMATELY 200NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE ECMWF
TRACKER, PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED,
WITH BOTH DECAY-SHIPS MODELS INDICATING INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU
48, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE INDICATES WEAKENING
THROUGH 24, STEADY-STATE TO TAU 36 AND REINTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS ETT. THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY TRACKS THE HAFS-A
MEMBER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-6-24 08:18
