|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2025-8-23 16:32
|
显示全部楼层
JTWC/19W/#04/08-23 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (KAJIKI)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.6N 115.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 397 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI),
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT, WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
INCREASINGLY EVIDENT ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS BEEN SPARSE. HOWEVER, A 230455Z
ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLC, WITH AN INTENSE CORE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON MSI. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN QUADRANT, UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS ROBUST, WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DRIVING THE IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION.
CONSEQUENTLY, SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T3.5 TO
T4.0. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO AS HIGH
AS 49 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES ESTIMATES TEMPERED BY THE CIMSS
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 230630Z
CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 230630Z
CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 230630Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 43 KTS AT 230545Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 39 KTS AT 230630Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN ISLAND FROM TAU 24 TO
TAU 30. AS VWS ABATES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TS 19W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36 ASSUMING
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF HAINAN AS INDICATED BY HAFS-A.
AFTER TAU 36, UPWELLING COOLER WATER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVERLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 60-75NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48. THE 221800Z ECEPS AND 230000Z GEFS
ENSEMBLES ALSO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), WITH
PEAK INTENSITY VALUES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS NEAR TAU 36.
ADDITIONALLY, RI GUIDANCE IS TRIGGERED SUGGESTING CONDUCIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48. THE 221800Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY ENSEMBLE
(CTCXEPS) INDICATES A 30-40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RI THROUGH TAU
36 WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN ISLAND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册
×
|
楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-8-23 15:31
