菲律宾以东2525号强台风“海鸥”(31W.Kalmaegi) - 将横过菲律宾中部进入南海 - JMA:75KT JTWC:90KT

冇茜特菈莉

联合台风警报中心(PGTW)于世界协调时02日20时44分发布台风发展报文(TPPN10)
A. 分析对象：热带风暴 31W (KALMAEGI)
B. 观测时间：02日20时30分（世界协调时）
...
F. 德法结论：FT 3.5(~55kt), CI 3.5(~55kt), 24小时趋势 增强(0.5), 3小时短期趋势 维持(0.0)
...
H. 备注：定位基于螺旋云带/动画。对流绕对数螺旋1.2圈，得出数据T数为4.0。模型预估T数一致。模式T数为3.5。结论基于模式T数。
...
（H段德法分析由AI翻译生成，未经人工校验，请注意甄别）

pocketbox

WTPH20 RPMM 021800
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 04
ISSUED AT 1800UTC, 02 NOVEMBER 2025 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (2525) 980HPA
AT 1800UTC, PSTN 11.0N 130.0E MOV WSW 15KT
MXWD 60KT NEAR CTR
48KT 30NM NE 30NM SE 30NM SW 30NM NW QUAD
34KT 80NM NE 80NM SE 80NM SW 80NM NW QUAD

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 030600UTC
PSTN 10.6N 128.1E, PRES 970HPA, MWXD 70KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 031800UTC
PSTN 10.6N 125.5E, PRES 955HPA, MWXD 85KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 040600UTC
PSTN 10.9N 122.9E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 041800UTC
PSTN 11.4N 120.4E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 050600UTC
PSTN 12.0N 118.2E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 051800UTC
PSTN 12.6N 115.7E, PRES 955HPA, MWXD 85KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 061800UTC
PSTN 13.8N 110.6E, PRES 955HPA, MWXD 85KT
120-HOUR FCST VLD AT 071800UTC
PSTN 15.5N 105.6E, PRES 990HPA, MWXD 50KT

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 11.0N 130.0E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 030000UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

VistaBSOD

加个风眼就是燕王再世（其实更像Mike）
是真的很像啊

fy6

TXPQ21 KNES 022354
TCSWNP
A. 31W (KALMAEGI)
B. 02/2330Z
C. 10.7N
D. 129.0E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN W RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0. CLOUD TOPS AS
COLD AS -93 C. MET=3.5 AND PT=4.0. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
EXACT LLCC LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON=

fy6

TPPN10 PGTW 022341
A. TROPICAL STORM 31W (KALMAEGI)
B. 02/2330Z
C. 10.53N
D. 129.09E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BRYANT

hei

底層發展得很好

fy6

TPPN10 PGTW 030238
A. TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI)
B. 03/0230Z
C. 10.42N
D. 128.64E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG, ADDING 0.5 FOR
BF, YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/2138Z 10.60N 129.17E MMWI
02/2314Z 10.47N 128.92E GPMI
RUCKER

pocketbox

WTPH20 RPMM 030000
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 05
ISSUED AT 0000UTC, 03 NOVEMBER 2025 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TYPHOON KALMAEGI (2525) 975HPA
AT 0000UTC, PSTN 10.4N 128.8E MOV WSW 15KT
MXWD 65KT NEAR CTR
64KT 20NM NE 20NM SE 20NM SW 20NM NW QUAD
48KT 50NM NE 50NM SE 50NM SW 50NM NW QUAD
34KT 80NM NE 80NM SE 80NM SW 80NM NW QUAD

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 031200UTC
PSTN 10.3N 126.4E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 040000UTC
PSTN 10.6N 123.7E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 041200UTC
PSTN 11.0N 121.4E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 050000UTC
PSTN 11.5N 119.3E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 051200UTC
PSTN 12.1N 117.1E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 060000UTC
PSTN 12.7N 114.3E, PRES 955HPA, MWXD 85KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 070000UTC
PSTN 14.1N 108.9E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 10.4N 128.8E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 030600UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

桑美和伊欧凯

VistaBSOD 发表于 2025-11-3 07:15
加个风眼就是燕王再世（其实更像Mike）
是真的很像啊

眼睛睁开就是强台，发展速度还可以

fy6

TPPN10 PGTW 030553
A. TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI)
B. 03/0530Z
C. 10.66N
D. 127.74E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF
5.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RUCKER