阿拉弗拉海二级热带气旋“菲纳”(02U/05S.Fina) - 影响澳洲北部 - JTWC:65KT

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IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0720 UTC 21/11/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 132.5E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  21/1200: 11.0S 132.2E:     030 (050):  050  (095):  987
+12:  21/1800: 11.3S 131.8E:     035 (065):  055  (100):  983
+18:  22/0000: 11.6S 131.4E:     045 (080):  060  (110):  980
+24:  22/0600: 11.9S 131.0E:     050 (095):  060  (110):  980
+36:  22/1800: 12.2S 130.1E:     065 (120):  060  (110):  980
+48:  23/0600: 12.6S 129.4E:     065 (125):  060  (110):  980
+60:  23/1800: 12.9S 128.7E:     080 (150):  065  (120):  975
+72:  24/0600: 13.0S 127.9E:     095 (175):  070  (130):  972
+96:  25/0600: 13.2S 126.8E:     135 (250):  050  (095):  986
+120: 26/0600: 13.8S 126.1E:     180 (335):  035  (065):  995
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Fina is located to the north of the Top End coast and moving
slowly towards the southwest. Position is good based on radar tracking.   

Recent visible imagery and radar imagery show improved banding and tighter low
level centre and a more vertical structure.

Dvorak is based on DT, with a curved band pattern type of 0.7 resulting in a DT
of 3.5. A D- trend gives a MET of 3.5, PAT 3.5, and FT/CI of 3.5.

Intensity is 50 knots, based on subjective Dvorak and objective guidance.
Objective guidance (1-min winds): ADT 61 knots, AiDT 67 knots, DPRINT 47 knots,
DMINT 54knots (0459UTC), SATCON 56knots 0600UTC). ADT and AiDT have
consistently had estimates significantly higher than other aids. In the case of
ADT, a PMW adjust appears to have led to the much higher values.

Good agreement with NWP model track for Fina to move generally in a southwest
direction towards the north coastline of the NT tonight and then track through
the Van Diemen Gulf and north of Darwin, on Saturday. In the longer term,
models continue a west southwest track taking Fina back over water in the Timor
Sea and towards the northern parts of Western Australia early next week.  

Vertical shear is weakening and likely remain low into the weekend. This,
coupled with other supporting factors including warm SST, outflow to the
southwest and sufficient low-level moisture, mean that Fina is expected to
strengthen further during Friday, potentially quite quickly overnight tonight.
Fina is forecast to reach an intensity of 60 knots during Saturday morning
before interaction with land inhibits further development.

Once over the open water of the southern Timor Sea, Fina is expected to
strengthen further to a category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone for a period on
Monday. Drier air and increasing vertical shear from Monday onwards are
expected to weaken the system in the long term.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1330 UTC.

---

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cape Don to Minjilang are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 04:30 PM CST on Friday 21 November 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Fina, category 2, is impacting the Cobourg Peninsula, extending to other parts of the northwest Top End today and on Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: The Tiwi Islands, Daly River Mouth to Warruwi, and inland to Batchelor. This includes Darwin, Cobourg Peninsula, Minjilang and Gunbalanya, and also Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti and Wurrumiyanga.

Watch zone: Wadeye to south of Daly River Mouth.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 3:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 10.6 degrees South 132.5 degrees East, estimated to be 60 kilometres north of Minjilang and 270 kilometres northeast of Darwin.

Movement: southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Fina has intensified to a category 2 cyclone, and is moving slowly to the southwest.

Fina is approaching the Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands and will move over the area tonight, before continuing southwest through the Van Diemen Gulf on Saturday.

Fina is forecast to further intensify to a severe tropical cyclone during overnight Sunday or early Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea. There continues to remain a chance that it could reach category 3 intensity earlier, during late Friday or early Saturday as it moves into the Van Diemen Gulf.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg Peninsula between Cape Don and Warruwi. Gales are expected to extend further west to include the Tiwi Islands during late Friday, and to Darwin from Saturday morning. Gales could extend inland to Gunbalanya and Batchelor during Saturday if Fina moves further south. Gales may extend further southwest to Daly River Mouth and Wadeye later on Saturday or overnight into early Sunday morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155km/h may develop between Cape Don and Minjilang Friday evening as the system nears the coast, extending to the Tiwi Islands early Saturday and possibly to Darwin later on Saturday. Destructive winds may extend east to Warruwi later Friday if the system takes a track further east. HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Warruwi from Friday, extending to the coast and nearby inland areas across the western Top End including Darwin during Saturday and Sunday. Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast during Friday and Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people between Cape Don to Minjilang should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and between Daly River Mouth to Warruwi, including the Cobourg Peninsula, Darwin and Batchelor, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near and between Wadeye and south of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website (securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 7:30 pm ACST Friday 21 November.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated position accuracy
0 hr	3 pm November 21	2	10.6° S	132.5° E	30 km
+6 hr	9 pm November 21	2	11.0° S	132.2° E	50 km
+12 hr	3 am November 22	2	11.3° S	131.8° E	65 km
+18 hr	9 am November 22	2	11.6° S	131.4° E	80 km
+24 hr	3 pm November 22	2	11.9° S	131.0° E	95 km
+36 hr	3 am November 23	2	12.2° S	130.1° E	120 km
+48 hr	3 pm November 23	2	12.6° S	129.4° E	125 km
+60 hr	3 am November 24	3	12.9° S	128.7° E	150 km
+72 hr	3 pm November 24	3	13.0° S	127.9° E	175 km

觀雲趣

https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-a ... ar-and-weather-maps
BoM 雷達

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 013   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 10.7S 132.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 132.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 11.3S 131.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 12.0S 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 12.6S 130.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 13.2S 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 14.1S 127.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 14.6S 126.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 15.1S 126.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 132.3E.
21NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139
NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210600Z
IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 210900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR
   
4. 013//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 10.7S 132.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 139 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WITH VIGOROUS BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
    
19. OBSCURING THE COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 05S IS
    
20. ANALYZED TO HAVE INITIATED ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 6
    
21. HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM WARRUWI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
    
22. FORMED A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH SPIRAL RAINBANDS WRAPPING
    
23. INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
24. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
    
25. INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
26. AGENCY DVORAK AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
27. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 05S IS NOW IN A FAVORABLE
    
28. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
29. OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    
30. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE
    
31. TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR REMAINS SOME MODERATE (15-20
    
32. KTS) NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR ACTING ON THE VORTEX.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 210056Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
37. RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
41.    ADRM: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS SATCON: 58 KTS AT 210459Z
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 210600Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 67 KTS AT 210600Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 54 KTS AT 210459Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 54 KTS AT 210630Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
50.    SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
52.    OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
65. SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    
66. RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA THROUGHOUT THE
    
67. ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 05S IS FORECAST TO MAKE AN INITIAL
    
68. LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GARIG GUNAK BARLU NATIONAL
    
69. PARK AROUND TAU 12 BEFORE ENTERING THE VAN DIEMEN GULF. 05S WILL
    
70. THEN TRACK THROUGH THE CLARENCE STRAIT AND SKIRT THE COAST THROUGH
    
71. TAU 36, PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST OF DARWIN NEAR TAU 30. 05S IS
    
72. THEN EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BONAPARTE GULF
    
73. AROUND TAU 48. A FINAL LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
    
74. NORTHERN KIMBERLEY COAST JUST AFTER TAU 72. REGARDING INTENSITY,
    
75. 05S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
    
76. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH LOW SHEAR AND A MOIST
    
77. ENVIRONMENT. THE VORTEX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST,
    
78. LIMITING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, AND ALLOWING 05S TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
    
79. THE VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. AFTER TAU 48,
    
80. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AND DRY AIR BEGINS
    
81. TO IMPACT THE VORTEX. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE 05S TO WEAKEN AS IT
    
82. APPROACHES THE COAST NEAR TAU 72. ONCE 05S MAKES ITS FINAL
    
83. LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE VORTEX TO QUICKLY
    
84. DETERIORATE WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 120.
    
85. 
    
86. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
87. AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM, WHICH TRACKS
    
88. THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE.
    
89. DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIER, THERE IS AN 85 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT
    
90. TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH SOME MODELS
    
91. TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD, ALONG THE COAST (GFS AND ECMEF) WHILE
    
92. OTHERS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE VORTEX SOUTHWESTWARD (GDM AND
    
93. EC-AIFS). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
    
94. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND CLOSER TO THE GDM ENSEMBLE
    
95. MEAN THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
    
96. OUTLIER IN HAFS-A, WHICH PEAKS THE SYSTEM AT 130 KTS AT TAU 60. THE
    
97. REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RANGE BETWEEN MARGINAL
    
98. INTENSIFICATION AND MARGINAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. THE JTWC
    
99. INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF
    
100. GUIDANCE WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
     
101. TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST
     
102. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY TO LAND.
     
103. 
     
104. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
105.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
106.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
     
107.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
     
108.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
109. NNNN

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、曹越男  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 11 月 21 日 18 时
“菲纳”向西南方向移动

时  间: 21日14时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “菲纳”，FINA

中心位置:  南纬10.6度，东经132.5度

强度等级:  二级热带气旋

最大风力: 10级，25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 990百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚达尔文东北方向约269公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“菲纳”强度变化不大

预报结论: “菲纳”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年11月21日14时00分）

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IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cape Don to Minjilang are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 07:22 PM CST on Friday 21 November 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Fina, category 2, is impacting the Cobourg Peninsula, extending to other parts of the northwest Top End overnight and during Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: The Tiwi Islands, Daly River Mouth to Warruwi, and inland to Batchelor. This includes Darwin, Cobourg Peninsula, Minjilang and Gunbalanya, and also Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti and Wurrumiyanga.

Watch zone: Wadeye to south of Daly River Mouth.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 6:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 10.9 degrees South 132.3 degrees East, estimated to be 40 kilometres northwest of Minjilang and 230 kilometres northeast of Darwin.

Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Fina, currently a category 2 cyclone, is moving steadily towards the southwest. Fina is approaching the Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands and will move over the area tonight, before continuing southwest through the Van Diemen Gulf during Saturday.

After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to further intensify to a severe tropical cyclone on Sunday or early Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea. There is a chance that it could reach category 3 intensity during Saturday as it moves through the Van Diemen Gulf.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg Peninsula between Cape Don and Warruwi. Gales are expected to extend further west to include the Tiwi Islands overnight, and to Darwin from Saturday morning. Gales could extend inland to Gunbalanya and Batchelor during Saturday if Fina moves further south. Gales may extend further southwest to Daly River Mouth and Wadeye later on Saturday or overnight into early Sunday morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155km/h may develop between Cape Don and Minjilang during Friday night as the system nears the coast, extending to the Tiwi Islands early Saturday and possibly to Darwin later on Saturday. HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Warruwi from Friday, extending to the coast and nearby inland areas across the western Top End including Darwin during Saturday and Sunday. Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast during Friday and Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people between Cape Don to Minjilang should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and between Daly River Mouth to Warruwi, including the Cobourg Peninsula, Darwin and Batchelor, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near and between Wadeye and south of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website (securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 10:30 pm ACST Friday 21 November.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated position accuracy
0 hr	6 pm November 21	2	10.9° S	132.3° E	30 km
+6 hr	12 am November 22	2	11.3° S	132.0° E	50 km
+12 hr	6 am November 22	2	11.5° S	131.6° E	65 km
+18 hr	12 pm November 22	2	11.8° S	131.1° E	80 km
+24 hr	6 pm November 22	2	12.1° S	130.7° E	90 km
+36 hr	6 am November 23	2	12.4° S	129.9° E	120 km
+48 hr	6 pm November 23	2	12.8° S	129.1° E	140 km
+60 hr	6 am November 24	3	13.0° S	128.5° E	150 km
+72 hr	6 pm November 24	3	13.1° S	127.7° E	165 km

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IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1308 UTC 21/11/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.1S
Longitude: 132.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (213 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  21/1800: 11.5S 131.9E:     025 (050):  055  (100):  983
+12:  22/0000: 11.7S 131.4E:     035 (065):  060  (110):  980
+18:  22/0600: 12.0S 131.0E:     045 (080):  060  (110):  980
+24:  22/1200: 12.2S 130.6E:     050 (090):  060  (110):  980
+36:  23/0000: 12.5S 129.7E:     065 (120):  060  (110):  980
+48:  23/1200: 12.9S 129.0E:     075 (140):  065  (120):  976
+60:  24/0000: 13.1S 128.3E:     085 (155):  070  (130):  972
+72:  24/1200: 13.1S 127.6E:     090 (170):  065  (120):  976
+96:  25/1200: 13.4S 126.6E:     125 (235):  045  (085):  989
+120: 26/1200: 14.2S 126.0E:     150 (280):  035  (065):  995
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Fina is located near the north coast of the Northern Territory
and is moving steadily towards the south southwest. Position is good based on
radar tracking.   

Dvorak is based on MET/PAT with a D trend giving FT/CI 3.5. DT was difficult to
assign.

Intensity is estimated at 50 knots, based on consensus of subjective Dvorak,
objective guidance. Nd available surface observations Latest available CIMSS
objective guidance (1-min winds) accessed at 1230UTC: ADT 61 knots, AiDT 67
knots, DPRINT 66 knots,  SATCON 58knots at 0700UTC). ADT and AiDT have
consistently had estimates significantly higher than other aids. Croker Island
airport on the western (lee) side of the island recorded gusts up to 58 knots
but no storm force winds.

Good agreement with NWP model track for Fina to move generally in a southwest
or south southwest direction tonight and then track through the Van Diemen Gulf
and north of Darwin, on Saturday. In the longer term, models indicate a west
southwest track taking Fina back over water in the Timor Sea and towards the
northern parts of Western Australia early next week.  

Latest available CIMSS shear analysis was for 00UTC when it was analysed at 15
knots. Satellite imagery suggests shear has not significantly increased.
Gradient of brightness temperatures in IR imagery suggests moderate shear from
the northeast. Models indicate shear is likely to drop during Saturday.  

This, coupled with other supporting factors including warm SST, outflow to the
southwest and sufficient low-level moisture, mean that Fina is expected to
strengthen further during Saturday, although likely not until it has cleared
the Cobourg Peninsula.  

Fina is forecast to reach an intensity of 60 knots during Saturday morning
before interaction with land may temporarily inhibit further development. Once
over the open water of the southern Timor Sea, Fina is expected to strengthen
further to a category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone for a period on Monday. Drier
air and increasing vertical shear from Monday onwards are expected to weaken
the system in the long term.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1930 UTC.

---

IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cape Don to Minjilang are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 10:05 pm ACST on Friday 21 November 2025


Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Fina, category 2, is impacting the Cobourg Peninsula,
extending to other parts of the northwest Top End during Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: The Tiwi Islands, Daly River Mouth to Warruwi, and inland to
Batchelor. This includes Darwin, Cobourg Peninsula and Minjilang, and also
Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti and Wurrumiyanga.

Watch zone: Wadeye to south of Daly River Mouth.

Cancelled zone: Gunbalanya.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 9:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 11.1 degrees South 132.2 degrees East,
estimated to be 40 kilometres west of Minjilang and 205 kilometres northeast of
Darwin.
Movement: south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Fina, currently a category 2 cyclone, is moving steadily
towards the south southwest. Fina is crossing the Cobourg Peninsula and will
move into the Van Dieman Gulf overnight. During Saturday Fina will move through
the Van Dieman Gulf heading towards the southwest.   

After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to further intensify to a severe
tropical cyclone on Sunday or early Monday as it moves through the southern
Timor Sea. There is a chance that it could reach category 3 intensity during
Saturday as it moves through the Van Diemen Gulf.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg
Peninsula between Cape Don and Minjilang. Gales are expected to extend further
west to include the Tiwi Islands overnight, and to Darwin from Saturday
morning. Gales may extend southwest to Daly River Mouth and Wadeye later on
Saturday or overnight into Sunday morning.  

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may occur between Cape Don and Minjilang
tonight as the system crosses the Cobourg Peninsula, and might extend to the
eastern parts of the Tiwi Islands early Saturday and possibly to Darwin later
on Saturday.

HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible
along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Warruwi, extending to the
coast and nearby inland areas across the western Top End including Darwin
during Saturday and Sunday.  

Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are
specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the
coast during Friday and Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above
the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people in the path of the dangerous cyclone about the Cobourg
Peninsula, including Minjilang and Cape Don, should stay calm and remain in a
secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside if
you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a
different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the
instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and elsewhere between Daly River Mouth
to Warruwi, including Darwin and Batchelor, should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available
daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near and between Wadeye and south
of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action they will need to take if the
cyclone threat increases. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the
Secure NT website (https://securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call
the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with
storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 1:30 am ACST Saturday 22 November.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm November 21	2	11.1S	132.2E	30
+6hr	4 am November 22	2	11.5S	131.9E	50
+12hr	10 am November 22	2	11.7S	131.4E	65
+18hr	4 pm November 22	2	12.0S	131.0E	80
+24hr	10 pm November 22	2	12.2S	130.6E	90
+36hr	10 am November 23	2	12.5S	129.7E	120
+48hr	10 pm November 23	3	12.9S	129.0E	140
+60hr	10 am November 24	3	13.1S	128.3E	155
+72hr	10 pm November 24	3	13.1S	127.6E	170

觀雲趣

https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-a ... ar-and-weather-maps
登陸
Garig Gunak Barlu National Park

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WTXS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z --- NEAR 11.1S 132.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 132.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 11.8S 131.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 12.4S 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 13.0S 129.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 13.5S 129.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 14.4S 127.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 14.7S 126.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 132.0E.
21NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211200Z IS
980 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 211500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR
   
4. 014//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.1S 132.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 114 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WITH A HIGHLY COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
    
19. (CDO) AND CORRESPONDING CLOUD TOPS MEASURING COLDER THAN -80 C
    
20. DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL JUST AFTER
    
21. 211200Z AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER THE COBOURG PENINSULA.
    
22. 210921Z WSFM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED
    
23. MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WITHIN THE
    
24. SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM
    
25. WARRUWI REVEALS A VERY SMALL INNER-CORE, MEASURING ABOUT 30 NM IN
    
26. DIAMETER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
    
27. ON THE ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS
    
28. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
    
29. AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. THE COMPACT NATURE OF
    
30. THE SYSTEM MAY BE CAUSING DVORAK ANALYSIS TO SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATE
    
31. INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 05S IS IN A
    
32. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    
33. ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND VERY
    
34. WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR
    
35. REMAINS SOME MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR ACTING
    
36. ON THE VORTEX.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED
    
39. ON THE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
40. 
    
41. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
42. RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
    
43. 
    
44. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
45.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
46.    ADRM: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
47.    CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 211200Z
    
48.    CIMSS AIDT: 67 KTS AT 211200Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-MINT: 60 KTS AT 210922Z
    
50.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 66 KTS AT 211200Z
    
51. 
    
52. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
53.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
54.    SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
    
55.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
56.    OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR
    
57. 
    
58. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
59.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
60.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
61.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
62. 
    
63. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
64. 
    
65. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
66. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
67. 
    
68. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
69. SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    
70. RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA THROUGHOUT THE
    
71. ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 05S IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
    
72. VAN DIEMEN GULF THROUGH TAU 18 WITH ANOTHER LANDFALL FORECAST TO
    
73. OCCUR AT TAU 24, ALONG THE TIP OF THE COX PENINSULA, NEAR DARWIN.
    
74. 05S IS THEN EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BONAPARTE GULF AROUND TAU 36. A
    
75. FINAL LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NORTHERN KIMBERLEY
    
76. COAST NEAR TAU 72. THE VORTEX IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRIFT FURTHER
    
77. INLAND THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT RAPIDLY WEAKENS. REGARDING INTENSITY, 05S
    
78. IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
    
79. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH LOW SHEAR, AMPLE MOISTURE,
    
80. AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE VORTEX IS FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN
    
81. OFF THE COAST, LIMITING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, AND ALLOWING 05S TO TAKE
    
82. ADVANTAGE OF THE VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA.
    
83. AFTER TAU 48, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AND DRY
    
84. AIR BEGINS TO IMPACT THE VORTEX. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
    
85. 05S TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST NEAR TAU 72. ONCE 05S MAKES
    
86. ITS FINAL LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
    
87. ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE VORTEX TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE WITH
    
88. DISSIPATION FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 96.
    
89. 
    
90. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
91. AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM, WHICH TRACKS
    
92. THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE.
    
93. DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIER, THERE IS A 90 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
    
94. 72. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH SOME MODELS TRACKING
    
95. THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD, ALONG THE COAST (GFS AND ECMEF) WHILE
    
96. OTHERS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE VORTEX SOUTHWESTWARD (GDM AND
    
97. EC-AIFS). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
    
98. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND CLOSER TO THE GDM ENSEMBLE
    
99. MEAN THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
    
100. OUTLIER IN HAFS-A, WHICH PEAKS THE SYSTEM AT 110 KTS AT TAU 60. THE
     
101. REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RANGE BETWEEN MARGINAL
     
102. INTENSIFICATION AND MARGINAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. THE JTWC
     
103. INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL
     
104. LOW CONFIDENCE. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN
     
105. LARGE CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY
     
106. TO LAND.
     
107. 
     
108. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
109.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
110.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
111.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
     
112.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
113. NNNN

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pocketbox

IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cape Don to Minjilang are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued at 1:07 am ACST on Saturday 22 November 2025


Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Fina, category 2, is impacting the Cobourg Peninsula,
extending to other parts of the northwest Top End during Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: The Tiwi Islands, Daly River Mouth to Warruwi, and inland to
Batchelor. This includes Darwin, Cobourg Peninsula and Minjilang, and also
Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti and Wurrumiyanga.

Watch zone: Wadeye to south of Daly River Mouth.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 12:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 11.4 degrees South 132.1 degrees East,
estimated to be 60 kilometres west southwest of Minjilang and 175 kilometres
northeast of Darwin.
Movement: south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Fina, currently a category 2 cyclone, is crossing the Cobourg
Peninsula and moving into the Van Dieman Gulf. Recent motion has been toward
the south southwest, but during Saturday Fina is expected to take a more
southwest track that will see it pass just to the west of Darwin.

After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to further intensify to a severe
tropical cyclone on Sunday or early Monday as it moves through the southern
Timor Sea. There is a chance that it could reach category 3 intensity during
Saturday as it moves through the Van Diemen Gulf.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg
Peninsula between Cape Don and Minjilang. Gales are expected to extend further
west to include the eastern parts of the Tiwi Islands overnight, and to Darwin
from Saturday morning. Gales may extend southwest to Daly River Mouth and
Wadeye later on Saturday or overnight into Sunday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may occur between Cape Don and Minjilang as
the system crosses the Cobourg Peninsula, and might extend to the eastern parts
of the Tiwi Islands early Saturday and possibly to Darwin later on Saturday.

HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible
along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Warruwi, extending to the
coast and nearby inland areas across the western Top End including Darwin
during Saturday and Sunday.

Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are
specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the
coast during Friday and Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above
the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people in the path of the dangerous cyclone about the Cobourg
Peninsula, including Minjilang and Cape Don, should stay calm and remain in a
secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside if
you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a
different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the
instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and elsewhere between Daly River Mouth
to Warruwi, including Darwin and Batchelor, should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available
daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near and between Wadeye and south
of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action they will need to take if the
cyclone threat increases. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the
Secure NT website (https://securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call
the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with
storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 4:30 am ACST Saturday 22 November.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 am November 22	2	11.4S	132.1E	30
+6hr	7 am November 22	2	11.8S	131.8E	50
+12hr	1 pm November 22	2	11.9S	131.3E	65
+18hr	7 pm November 22	2	12.2S	130.9E	80
+24hr	1 am November 23	2	12.4S	130.4E	90
+36hr	1 pm November 23	2	12.7S	129.6E	120
+48hr	1 am November 24	3	13.1S	128.9E	135
+60hr	1 pm November 24	3	13.2S	128.2E	145
+72hr	1 am November 25	2	13.2S	127.5E	155

ygsj24

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the Tiwi Islands, area near and between Cape Hotham to Point Stuart and Cape Don to Minjilang are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 21
Issued at 04:24 AM CST on Saturday 22 November 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Fina, category 2, is impacting the Cobourg Peninsula and eastern Tiwi Islands, extending to other parts of the northwest Top End during Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: The Tiwi Islands, Daly River Mouth to Warruwi, and inland to Batchelor. This includes Darwin, Cobourg Peninsula, Minjilang, and also Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti and Wurrumiyanga.

Watch zone: Wadeye to south of Daly River Mouth.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 3:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 11.6 degrees South 131.9 degrees East, estimated to be 90 kilometres southwest of Minjilang and 145 kilometres northeast of Darwin.
Movement: south southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Fina, currently a category 2 cyclone, has crossed the Cobourg Peninsula into the Van Dieman Gulf. Fina has been moving south southwest, but very recent motion is to the west southwest, which is expected to continue. This motion takes it to the north of Darwin later today.
After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to further intensify to a severe tropical cyclone on Sunday or early Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea. There is a chance that it could reach category 3 intensity during Saturday as it moves through the Van Diemen Gulf.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg Peninsula between Cape Don and Minjilang and eastern parts of Melville Island. Gales will soon extend to Cape Hotham and Point Stuart. Gales are expected to extend further west to include Darwin during Saturday morning and across the remainder of the Tiwi Islands during Saturday. Gales may extend southwest to Daly River Mouth and Wadeye later on Saturday or overnight into Sunday morning if Fina takes a more southerly track. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h are occurring on the southern side of the Cobourg Penisula and should ease in the next few hours. Destructive wind gusts may develop over southeastern parts of the Tiwi Islands this morning, extending west to southern parts of the islands, including Wurrumiyanga during the day. Destructive gusts may develop near Cape Hotham this morning, and possibly extend to Darwin later on Saturday. HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Warruwi, extending to the coast and nearby inland areas across the western Top End including Darwin during Saturday and Sunday. Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast during Friday and Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people in the path of the dangerous cyclone about the southern Cobourg Peninsula, southern Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart, should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities. NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and elsewhere between Daly River Mouth to Warruwi, including Darwin and Batchelor, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near and between Wadeye and south of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website (https://securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

The next advice will be issued by 7:30 am ACST Saturday 22 November.

	Time (Australian Central Standard Time)Time (ACST)	Intensity category	Latitude (decimal degrees)Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal degrees)Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated position accuracy
plus 0 hours0 hr	3 am November 22	2	11.6° SouthS	131.9° EastE	30 kilometres30 km
plus 6 hours+6 hr	9 am November 22	2	11.8° SouthS	131.5° EastE	50 kilometres50 km
plus 12 hours+12 hr	3 pm November 22	2	12.0° SouthS	131.0° EastE	65 kilometres65 km
plus 18 hours+18 hr	9 pm November 22	2	12.1° SouthS	130.6° EastE	80 kilometres80 km
plus 24 hours+24 hr	3 am November 23	2	12.2° SouthS	130.1° EastE	90 kilometres90 km
plus 36 hours+36 hr	3 pm November 23	3	12.6° SouthS	129.2° EastE	115 kilometres115 km
plus 48 hours+48 hr	3 am November 24	3	12.9° SouthS	128.5° EastE	125 kilometres125 km
plus 60 hours+60 hr	3 pm November 24	3	13.2° SouthS	127.7° EastE	150 kilometres150 km
plus 72 hours+72 hr	3 am November 25	2	13.2° SouthS	127.0° EastE	165 kilometres165 km

---

AXAU01 ADRM 211934
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1934 UTC 21/11/2025
NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE FINA
IDENTIFIER: 02U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 11.6S
LONGITUDE: 131.9E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 15NM (30 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH SOUTHWEST (210 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 6 KNOTS (11 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 75 KNOTS (140 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 50 NM (95 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 45 NM (85 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 45 NM (85 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 45 NM (85 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 10 NM (20 KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1004 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 100 NM (185 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  22/0000: 11.8S 131.5E:     030 (050):  060  (110):  980
+12:  22/0600: 12.0S 131.0E:     035 (065):  060  (110):  980
+18:  22/1200: 12.1S 130.6E:     045 (080):  060  (110):  980
+24:  22/1800: 12.2S 130.1E:     050 (090):  060  (110):  980
+36:  23/0600: 12.6S 129.2E:     060 (115):  065  (120):  976
+48:  23/1800: 12.9S 128.5E:     070 (125):  070  (130):  971
+60:  24/0600: 13.2S 127.7E:     080 (150):  070  (130):  972
+72:  24/1800: 13.2S 127.0E:     090 (165):  060  (110):  979
+96:  25/1800: 13.4S 126.1E:     125 (230):  040  (075):  992
+120: 26/1800: 14.4S 125.8E:     165 (305):  035  (065):  995
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE FINA IS LOCATED IN THE VAN DIEMEN GULF NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF
THE NORTHERN TERRITORY AND HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST, THOUGH
MORE RECENTLY TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST. POSITION IS GOOD BASED ON RADAR
TRACKING.

DVORAK IS BASED ON MET/PAT WITH A D- TREND GIVING FT/CI 3.5. DT WAS DIFFICULT
TO ASSIGN.

INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS, BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK. LATEST AVAILABLE CIMSS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (1-MIN WINDS)
ACCESSED AT 1900 UTC: DPRINT 60 KNOTS, DMINT 76 KNOTS, AND SATCON 66 KNOTS. ADT
AND AIDT WERE AVAILABLE AT TIME OF ANALYSIS, BUT HAVE BECOME UNAVAILABLE AT
TIME OF WRITING THOUGH BOTH HAVE CONSISTENTLY HAD ESTIMATES SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THAN OTHER AIDS. CROKER ISLAND AIRPORT ON THE WESTERN (LEE) SIDE OF THE
ISLAND RECORDED GUSTS UP TO 58 KNOTS BUT NO STORM FORCE WINDS.

FINA HAS MOVED FURTHER SOUTH THAN MOST GUIDANCE, BUT IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWEST TO
WEST SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN A SOUTHWEST TRACK, ALTHOUGH
SOME WITH WEAKER INTENSITIES HAS IT MOVING MORE WEST. IN THE LONGER TERM,
MODELS INDICATE A WEST SOUTHWEST TRACK TAKING FINA BACK OVER WATER IN THE TIMOR
SEA AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATEST AVAILABLE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS WAS FOR 18UTC WHEN IT WAS ANALYSED AT
NORTHERLY 15 KNOTS. GRADIENT OF BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES IN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SHEAR IS NOT STRONG. MODELS INDICATE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DROP DURING SATURDAY.
THIS, COUPLED WITH OTHER SUPPORTING FACTORS INCLUDING WARM SST, OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, MEAN THAT FINA IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER DURING SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS DEPENDS A LITTLE ON TRACK AND
HOW CLOSE TO LAND IT MOVES.

FINA IS FORECAST TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS DURING SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE INTERACTION WITH LAND MAY TEMPORARILY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ONCE
OVER THE OPEN WATER OF THE SOUTHERN TIMOR SEA, FINA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
FURTHER TO A CATEGORY 3 SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A PERIOD ON MONDAY. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FROM MONDAY ONWARDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 22/0130 UTC.=