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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-12-23 22:45 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.2S 99.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 99.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.8S 98.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 11.6S 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.5S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.5S 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 11.7S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.4S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.1S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 98.9E. 23DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND
241500Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 231500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR
- 013//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 12.2S 99.1E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 129 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY
- COMPACT YET ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) WHICH CONTINUES TO
- BE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY THE ENVIRONMENT. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY
- SHEAR, CURRENTLY ESTIMATED BY CIMSS TO BE RUNNING AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS,
- HAS ADVERSELY IMPACTED THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS.
- EARLIER IN THE DAY, CONVECTION WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER
- THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A NASCENT MICROWAVE EYE
- FEATURE DEVELOPING IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM APPROXIMATELY 0600Z.
- HOWEVER, SINCE THAT TIME, THE CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED AND
- BECOME DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH, LEAVING BEHIND AN LLCC OBSCURED BY
- MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, WHICH WHILE EXHIBITING ROTATION, ARE NOT FORMED
- INTO A WELL-STRUCTURED ROTATION. A 231120Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
- INDICATED THAT WHILE THE OUTER BANDS ARE FAIRLY WELL FORMED, THE
- INNER CORE STRUCTURE IS DISORGANIZED AND LACKS A CLEARLY DEFINED
- CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
- THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE OBSCURED
- LLCC IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
- INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
- MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WEAK POLEWARD
- OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SSTS AND DRY MID-LEVEL TO THE NORTH OF THE
- SYSTEM.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
- MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 47 KTS AT 230830Z
- CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 231130Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 231230Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 38 KTS AT 231123Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 231230Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
- NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: LOW
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (GRANT) IS FORECAST
- TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, ALONG
- THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
- THE STR CENTERED FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
- AND DEEPENS VERTICALLY, IT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE A
- BUILDING STR OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA, AND BEGIN A
- GRADUAL TURN ONTO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU
- 48. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
- TC 09S, KEEPING TC 09S ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND
- THUS, FIRMLY ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, THROUGH THE END OF THE
- FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO
- CONSOLIDATE IN THE FACE OF THE PERSISTENT SHEAR IN THE NEAR-TERM. IN
- ADDITION, ITS COMPACT SIZE WILL RENDER IT PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
- SMALL CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT, AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT
- WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, ALL
- AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT WILL IMPROVE AFTER TAU
- 12, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE, IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
- AND DECREASING SHEAR. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN ITS STRUCTURE
- FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS, IT IS POISED TO INTENSIFY IN THE MID-RANGE
- FORECAST, UP TO A PEAK OF APPROXIMATELY 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER
- THAT, IT IS EXPECTED TO SUFFER FROM ANOTHER PENETRATION OF DRY AIR
- INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED SHEAR AS A
- TROF PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
- PERSIST HOWEVER, AND WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN A BIT AFTER TAU 72,
- IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY AFTER TAU 96.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL
- AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREEING ON THE TRACK
- SCENARIO. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE GALWEM (NORTH) AND NAVGEM
- (SOUTH) OUTLIERS INCREASES TO 375NM BY TAU 120, BUT THE REMAINDER
- OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS (ECMWF, EC-AIFS, GFS, GEFS, EGRR AND FGNI)
- ARE TIGHTLY GROUPED ABOUT THE CONSENSUS MEAN. THE MULTI-MODEL
- ENSEMBLE PACKAGE TELLS A SIMILAR TALE, WITH ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF
- MEMBERS CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW ENVELOPE POINTED TO THE
- WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT
- EARLY-ON IN THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
- CONSENSUS MEAN AND THE ECMWF TRACK, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
- GUIDANCE IS MORE MIXED, WITH THE HWRF IN PARTICULAR SHOWING A
- SIGNIFICANT SHIFT UPWARDS IN INTENSITY SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW
- POSITIONED AT THE HIGH END OF THE ENVELOPE VICE THE LOW END. HOWEVER,
- IN THE AGGREGATE, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN A BIT, WITH
- ONLY THE RECENTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF REACHING 70 KNOTS. THE
- REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PEAKS BETWEEN 55 AND 65 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU
- 48 AND TAU 72, BEFORE WEAKENING AND THEN RE-INTENSIFYING AGAIN AFTER
- TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN
- THROUGH TAU 48, THEN WITHIN APPROXIMATELY FIVE KNOTS OF THE HWRF FOR
- THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ck.
发表于 2025-12-23 09:00
