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WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.9S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.3S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.1S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.2S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.7S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 71.8E. 16JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 160300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
- 012//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 16.8S 72.1E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 865 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) AS A VIGOROUS STORM AT NEAR SUPER-TYPHOON
- STRENGTH. DUDZAI INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DESPITE THE
- INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE
- SYSTEM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOPS
- HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY AND THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED A FEW MILES.
- ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 14S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
- FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
- WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
- OFFSET BY A DRIER ENVIRONMENT OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
- CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
- COMPACT EYE PRESENT IN ANIMATED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125
- KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS AUTOMATED
- INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS
- DEMS: T6.5 - 127 KTS
- FMEE: T6.0 - 115 KTS
- FIMP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 104 KTS AT 152230Z
- CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 160000Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 111 KTS AT 160000Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 128 KTS AT 160000Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO
- DEPICT 14S CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130KTS AT
- TAU 12, VICE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH DEPICTED A WEAKENING
- TREND BEGINNING IMMINENTLY.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
- WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AT WHICH POINT THE STR TO THE
- SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
- REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 14S IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK
- INTENSITY AT TAU 12, JUST BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD. AS DUDZAI
- TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL ENTRAIN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
- DRY AIR INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
- IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LEADING CAUSE OF WEAKENING, THOUGH
- CONTRIBUTING FACTORS INCLUDE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
- TEMPERATURES. 14S IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM AROUND TAU
- 96, WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY, A 151742Z
- 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF DUDZAI
- ATTEMPTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), SIGNALED BY THE
- DEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION EXTENSION FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
- AND THE STRIP OF LOW EMISSIVITY OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL THAT MAY
- DEVELOP INTO A MOAT. THE EYE DIAMETER SLIGHTLY EXPANDED IN ANIMATED
- EIR, SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY. SHOULD 14S BEGIN AN ERC, IT WOULD
- LIKELY FAIL TO COMPLETE THE FULL CYCLE AND ULTIMATELY INCREASE THE
- RATE OF WEAKENING, AS 14S HAS VERY LIMITED TIME TO COMPLETE THE CYCLE
- AND REINTENSIFY BEFORE BEGINNING ITS TERMINAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER
- TAU 24.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
- STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD IN BOTH THE CROSS-TRACK
- AND ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU
- 72-120. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 14S
- PEAKED AND SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF
- THE FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DEVIATES FROM MODEL
- GUIDANCE, AS PREVIOUS INTENSITY ANALYSES AND INCREASING DVORAK
- ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT 14S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE
- FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALSO SUPPORTS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE
- NEAR-TERM. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CONVERGES WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
- AT TAU 72, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE WEAKENING TREND FOR THE LATER
- FORECAST TAUS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED
- WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-1-15 23:17
发表于 2026-1-16 08:19
