TCFA - 新喀里多尼亚西北14U(94P) - 17.1S 159.3E

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JTWC 09Z分析TOO WEAK

TPPS11 PGTW 160846
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 16/0830Z
C. 18.50S
D. 160.48E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

pocketbox

Tropical Low 14U
Tropical low (14U) may develop to the northwest of New Caledonia during the weekend.

• Tropical low (14U) lies to the northwest of New Caledonia. It is expected to remain slow moving during the weekend.
• There is a Moderate chance that 14U develops into a tropical cyclone on Monday or early Tuesday, while it is located to the north of Norfolk Island.
• It is expected to begin tracking towards the southeast on Monday and move closer to Norfolk Island late on Tuesday or Wednesday. However, by this time 14U may be becoming an extra-tropical system.
• Winds and weather may increase for Norfolk Island with the passage of 14U. Residents on Norfolk Island to monitor forecasts for updates.
• 14U is expected to remain well to the east of the Australian coast and mainland, with no direct impacts.
  

Last updated
43 minutes ago, 08:56 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sun 18  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 18  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 19  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 19  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 20  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 20  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 21  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 21  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 22  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 22  Jan 12:00 pm

Fri 23  Jan 12:00 am

Fri 23  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 14U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z继续分析TOO WEAK

TPPS11 PGTW 161217
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 16/1140Z
C. 18.34S
D. 159.90E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   16/0723Z  18.35S  160.42E  MMWI
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析无法找到中心

TPPS11 PGTW 161523
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 16/1440Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

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JTWC 18Z分析T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 161822
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 16/1730Z
C. 18.36S
D. 159.55E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/12HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
& PT YIELD 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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JTWC 00Z分析T1.0/1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 170021
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 16/2330Z
C. 17.79S
D. 159.09E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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JTWC 03Z分析维持T1.0/1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 170250
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 17/0230Z
C. 18.15S
D. 158.90E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.5N 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 170300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.6S 160.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 469 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPORADIC AND ISOLATED FLARING CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF 94P SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION ALSO MOVING NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析TOO WEAK

TPPS11 PGTW 170601
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 17/0530Z
C. 17.67S
D. 158.78E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z继续分析TOO WEAK

TPPS11 PGTW 170852
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 17/0830Z
C. 17.76S
D. 158.58E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO . THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER