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西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部,西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

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发表于 2026-2-3 20:48 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 12Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上
TPPS10 PGTW 031233
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (S OF DARWIN)
B. 03/1130Z
C. 16.90S
D. 131.27E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。

33

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7201

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1万

积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
14853
发表于 2026-2-3 21:10 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 21U
Tropical Low 21U to move west off the Kimberley coast Friday with a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone north of the Pilbara coast from Sunday to Monday.
  • Tropical low 21U is moving slowly over the Northern Territory and expected to move west to be off west Kimberley coast Friday.
  • Once offshore, 21U is expected to move west southwest roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast.
  • Model guidance is mixed for potential development and the latest guidance indicates the low will most likely remain weak as it passes north of the Pilbara coast. At this stage the risk of becoming a tropical cyclone is assessed as Moderate from Sunday into Monday.
  • By Tuesday the risk reduces as it moves over cooler waters northwest of WA.
Last updated
4 hours ago, 08:46 am UTC

Tropical lowsTomorrow 12:00 am Tomorrow 12:00 pm Thu 5  Feb 12:00 am Thu 5  Feb 12:00 pm Fri 6  Feb 12:00 am Fri 6  Feb 12:00 pm Sat 7  Feb 12:00 am Sat 7  Feb 12:00 pm Sun 8  Feb 12:00 am Sun 8  Feb 12:00 pm Mon 9  Feb 12:00 am Mon 9  Feb 12:00 pm Tue 10  Feb 12:00 am Tue 10  Feb 12:00 pm
Tropical Low 21U 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 15 (Low) 10 (Low)

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发表于 2026-2-4 00:06 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 15Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上
TPPS10 PGTW 031528
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (S OF DARWIN)
B. 03/1430Z
C. 17.02S
D. 131.22E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-2-4 02:33 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 18Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上
TPPS10 PGTW 031821
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 03/1730Z
C. 17.02S
D. 131.05E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-2-4 05:26 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 21Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上
TPPS10 PGTW 032108
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 03/2030Z
C. 17.01S
D. 130.51E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-2-4 08:18 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 00Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上
TPPS10 PGTW 040012
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 03/2330Z
C. 16.84S
D. 129.73E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-2-4 11:19 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 03Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上
TPPS10 PGTW 040317
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 04/0230Z
C. 16.72S
D. 129.20E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-2-4 14:52 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 06Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上
TPXS11 PGTW 040632
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 04/0530Z
C. 16.57S
D. 129.08E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。

33

主题

7201

回帖

1万

积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
14853
发表于 2026-2-4 17:20 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 21U
Tropical Low 21U to move west off the Kimberley coast on Friday, with a moderate chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone north of the Pilbara coast on Sunday and Monday.
  • Tropical Low 21U is over the far eastern Kimberley and moving towards the west. It is expected to move off west Kimberley coast on Friday.
  • Once offshore, 21U is forecast to move west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast.
  • 21U should take some time to consolidate once it is over water. It is a low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone on Saturday, increasing to Moderate (35%) on Sunday and Monday.
  • Although 21U will most likely remain off the Pilbara coast, peripheral impacts are possible along the Pilbara coast if it does develop. People in the area should keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
  • By Tuesday 21U should be moving further west and away from the WA mainland. It should also be weakening as it moves over cooler waters to the northwest of WA.
Last updated
39 minutes ago, 08:40 am UTC

Tropical lowsToday 12:00 pm Tomorrow 12:00 am Tomorrow 12:00 pm Fri 6  Feb 12:00 am Fri 6  Feb 12:00 pm Sat 7  Feb 12:00 am Sat 7  Feb 12:00 pm Sun 8  Feb 12:00 am Sun 8  Feb 12:00 pm Mon 9  Feb 12:00 am Mon 9  Feb 12:00 pm Tue 10  Feb 12:00 am Tue 10  Feb 12:00 pm Wed 11  Feb 12:00 am Wed 11  Feb 12:00 pm
Tropical Low 21U 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 25 (Moderate) 35 (Moderate) 35 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 10 (Low) 1 (Very Low)

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发表于 2026-2-4 17:41 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 09Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上
TPXS11 PGTW 040926
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 04/0830Z
C. 16.64S
D. 128.97E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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