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WTIO30 FMEE 060759
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2026/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 60.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/06 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2026/02/07 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2026/02/07 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2026/02/08 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 140
60H: 2026/02/08 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 95
72H: 2026/02/09 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/10 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
120H: 2026/02/11 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 75
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH, WITH
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND AN EXPOSED
CENTER, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR (ANALYZED AT 20KT BY CIMSS). THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT 30KT.
REGARDING THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD, DRIVEN BY
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE LOW LEVELS EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE
REMAINS OF STORM FYTIA SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES. FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THEN BE
GRADUALLY DRIVEN BY THE NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY STAGES WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. INDEED, THE TRACK IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. THE AMERICAN MODELS (GFS, HWRF, HAFS), WHICH ARE
MUCH MORE INTENSE, SUGGEST A NORTHERNER TRACK INITIALLY. THE CURRENT
RSMC FORECAST FAVORS THE LATEST IFS AND AROME MODELS, WHICH SIMULATE
A WEAKER SYSTEM.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DELAY THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION. SEVERAL MODELS, NOTABLY IFS AND
AROME, SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REMAIN PARTICULARLY DISORGANIZED
IN THE SHORT TERM. EVEN IF THE SHEAR DECREASES FROM TOMORROW,
SATURDAY, THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK ON THE POLAR SIDE ON
SATURDAY AND THEN ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE ON SUNDAY, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS. DESPITE THIS, CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT
THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE WILL FINALLY BE REACHED.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
SAINT BRANDON:
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY.=
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