瓦努阿图以南二级热带气旋“厄米尔”(23P/09F.Urmil) - 东南行进，南太26年首个命名气旋

Ragasa

pocketbox 发表于 2026-3-1 09:30
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 010156 UTC.

WTPS11 NFFN 010600 CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 010612 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.8S 177.1E AT 010000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 23
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AND BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. SIGNS OF DRY AIR ENTERING THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL
ONE. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR, STRONG
VORTICITY WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA
OF MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 26 TO 27 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN WITH 0.8 WRAP ON
LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDS DT = 3.5. MET = 3.0 AND PT =3.0. FT BASED ON DT
AND ASCAT DATA THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST, IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER
SHEAR, COOLER SST AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 24.1S 178.5E MOV  AT  KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 27.5S 176.9W MOV  AT  KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE URMIL AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT RSMC NADI'S AOR BY
0600UTC.

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z --- NEAR 25.7S 179.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 179.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 29.7S 175.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 179.5W.
01MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458
NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS ELONGATED AND HEAVILY SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH MAJORITY OF
THE REMAINING CONVECTION LOCATED POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE
ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS UNDERGOING ITS SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT),
WITH WARM CORE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CONTAINED ONLY NEAR SURFACE,
INDICATING FRONTOGENESIS. COLD ANOMALY IS PRESENT IN WITHIN THE
UPPER-LEVELS. THE LOCATION OF TC 23P IS POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RAPIDLY AND
DRASTICALLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES
THE TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
WIND SPEEDS WELL ABOVE GALE FORCE (50 KTS). THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 18 FEET.//
NNNN

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文，曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 03 月 01 日 18 时
“厄米尔”强度将逐渐减弱

时  间: 3月1日14时（北京时）

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “厄米尔”，URMIL

中心位置: 南纬25.4度，东经179.4度

强度等级: 二级热带气旋

最大风力: 10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 985百帕

参考位置: 距离南太平洋斐济苏瓦南偏东方向约820公里

变化过程: “厄米尔”过去24小时强度变化不大

预报结论: 预计，“厄米尔”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月1日14时00分）

pocketbox

STORM WARNING 007
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREAS: SUBTROPIC AND PACIFIC
AT 011200UTC
OVER WATERS SOUTH OF 25S.
LOW 983HPA, FORMER CYCLONE URMIL, NEAR 27S 178W MOVING SOUTHEAST
35KT.
1. WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT: CLOCKWISE
50KT. STORM AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST 35KT.
2. OUTSIDE AREA 1 AND IN A BELT 180 NAUTICAL MILES WIDE CENTRED ON A
LINE 32S 160W 33S 169W 31S 176W: EASTERLY 35KT. GALE AREA MOVING
SOUTHSOUTHEAST 25KT.
3. OUTSIDE AREAS 1 AND 2 AND WITHIN 360 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN
NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE: CLOCKWISE 35KT. GALE AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST
35KT.
4. OUTSIDE AREAS 1 TO 3 AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE: CLOCKWISE 35KT. GALE AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST
35KT.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 004.

Ragasa

ABPW10 PGTW 011800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED CORRECTED/011800Z-020600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (23P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 28.8S
176.3E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM SOUTH OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING
BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011749Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES SHEARED SOUTHWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25-26C), HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30+
KNOTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL STORM 23P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR REGAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 42 TO 48 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 984 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS,
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT
OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED 23P (URMIL) INFORMATION DUE TO
FINAL WARNING EXPIRATION AND ADDED SUBTROPICAL STORM 23P TO PARA. 2.C.
(1.)//
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PARA 2.C. WITH THE ADDITION
OF SUBTROPICAL STORM 23P.//
NNNN

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 03 月 02 日 10 时
“厄米尔”减弱为热带低压

“厄米尔”于1日夜间（北京时）在斐济南部洋面减弱为热带低压，中央气象台停止对其监视。

（这是关于“厄米尔”的最后一期监测公报）