MEDIUM - 雅浦岛东南95W - 8.5N 140.7E - 或将北上影响关岛 - JMA:LPA

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GFS 18Z继续支持稍有发展，预报两天内成台，巅峰约991百帕

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ECMWF 18Z系集，部分成员继续支持发展

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JMA 00Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 141E WNW SLOWLY.

Enceladus

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今天上午ASCAT风场扫描

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GFS 00Z继续支持稍有发展，巅峰约994百帕

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ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.1N 140.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
BROAD TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE HESITANT IN THE FORMATION OF 95W WITH INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEING SCATTERED. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SIMILARLY SCATTERED WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING AN
ELONGATED WIND FIELD AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE MARIANAS ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Enceladus

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JMA今天下午予想天气图预报+24h升格TD，+48h维持TD

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ECMWF 00Z系集，部分成员继续支持发展