2603号热带气旋“鹦鹉”(03W.Nuri)机构发报专帖

yhh

WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI) WARNING
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.0N 138.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 90 NM NORTH OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (NURI) WITH AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED FLARING BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KTS,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 28-29 C, AND SUPPORTIVE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. DRY AIR HAS REMAINED EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT, LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT REVEALING
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CURVED CLOUD LINES WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
DIRECTLY TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 111130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 111130Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 110928Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 111200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 03W IS FORECASTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST UNTIL
DISSIPATION. NEAR TAU 36, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 25 KTS,
FURTHER ERODING THE SURFACE VORTEX AND INTRODUCING ENHANCED DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE MID-LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO TRACK EASTWARD JUST NORTHWEST OF TD 03W INTO TAU 48,
QUICKENING THE TERMINAL DISSIPATION PHASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OPENS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. REGARDING INTENSITY,
SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TD NURI TO INTENSIFY TO 35 KTS
BY TAU 24, WITH A WEAKENING PHASE THEREAFTER. COMPLETE DISSIPATION
OVER WATER IS FORECASTED BY TAU 48 AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
UNFAVORABLE DUE TO DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT, UNFAVORABLE VWS, AND A
BAROCLINIC MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH STACKING DOWN THROUGH THE
MID-LEVELS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS TRACK MEMBERS
ILLUSTRATING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH DISSIPATION. DUE TO THE
EXPECTED WEAK SURFACE VORTEX THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 INCREASES TO 175
NM, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, THE RATE OF DISSIPATION AND SPEED OF APPROACH VARIES
GREATLY BETWEEN EACH JTWC CONSENSUS SOLUTION, ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO
THE POSITION OF DISSIPATION AS TD 03W TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDING INTENSITY, A 25 KT SPREAD OCCURS BETWEEN HAFS-A AND
COAMPS-TC AT TAU 24, INTRODUCING UNCERTAINTY AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY TO 35 KTS. FOLLOWING TAU 24, ALL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS ILLUSTRATE A TERMINAL WEAKENING TREND UNTIL
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48, LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

yhh

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 111500
CCAA 11150 99398 11165
NURI 03111 11381 12224 220// 90504
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 111500
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NURI 2603 (2603) INITIAL TIME 111500 UTC
00HR 11.1N 138.1E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 160KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
220KM SOUTHWEST
220KM NORTHWEST
MOVE ENE 10KM/H
P+12HR 11.5N 139.1E 998HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 12.0N 140.2E 1002HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

yhh

台風第3号(ヌーリ)
2026年03月12日00時50分発表

12日00時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯10度55分 (10.9度)
東経138度10分 (138.2度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北西側 220 km (120 NM)
南東側 165 km (90 NM)

12日12時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯12度00分 (12.0度)
東経139度05分 (139.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
予報円の半径        85 km (45 NM)

13日00時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯12度05分 (12.1度)
東経140度10分 (140.2度)
進行方向、速さ        東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1002 hPa
予報円の半径        120 km (65 NM)

Ragasa

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 111800
CCAA 11180 99398 11165
NURI 03113 11384 13224 220// 90504
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 111800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NURI 2603 (2603) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC
00HR 11.3N 138.4E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 160KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
220KM SOUTHWEST
220KM NORTHWEST
MOVE ENE 9KM/H
P+12HR 11.7N 139.3E 1002HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

Ragasa

台風第3号(ヌーリ)
2026年03月12日03時45分発表

12日03時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯10度55分 (10.9度)
東経138度40分 (138.7度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        998 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北西側 220 km (120 NM)
南東側 165 km (90 NM)

12日15時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯10度35分 (10.6度)
東経139度00分 (139.0度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1002 hPa
予報円の半径        85 km (45 NM)

13日03時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯11度05分 (11.1度)
東経140度05分 (140.1度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 10 km/h (6 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
予報円の半径        120 km (65 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 111800
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2603 NURI (2603)
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   TS NURI IS LOCATED AT 10.9N, 138.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
   
6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
   
7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
   
8.   PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
   
9.   35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
   
10.   UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
    
11.   OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED
    
12.   IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
    
13.   ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
    
14.   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    
15. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
16.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
    
17.   STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND
    
18.   THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
    
19.   HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    
20. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
21.   THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
    
22.   UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
    
23.   PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
    
24.   FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
    
25.   MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
    
26.   DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
    
27. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
28.   THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
29.   INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
    
30.   INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
    
31.   INCLUDING GSM.
    
32. =

复制代码

Ragasa

No.3 NURI KMA | Issued at(KST) : Thu, 12 Mar 2026, 04:00

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
			m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Wed, 11 Mar 2026, 18:00 Analysis	-	1	18	65	1000	10.9	138.7	ENE	12	200 [SW 100]		-
Thu, 12 Mar 2026, 06:00 Forecast	-	TD	15	54	1002	11.3	139.7	ENE	10			40

Ragasa

WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 11.0N 138.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 138.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 11.1N 139.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 11.8N 140.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 13.0N 142.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 138.8E.
11MAR26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
409 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

Ragasa

輕度颱風鸚鵡
編號第 03 號
國際命名 NURI

現況
2026年03月12日02時
中心位置在北緯 11.4 度，東經 138.5 度
過去移動方向 北北東
過去移動時速 15公里
中心氣壓 998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風平均暴風半徑 80 公里
　西北側 80 公里 東北側 80 公里
　西南側 80 公里 東南側 80 公里
十級風平均暴風半徑 - 公里

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
東北 時速 13 公里
預測 03月12日08時
中心位置在北緯 11.9 度，東經 139.0 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 30 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
東北東 時速 15 公里
預測 03月12日14時
中心位置在北緯 12.3 度，東經 139.7 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 40 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
東北東 時速 14 公里
預測 03月12日20時
中心位置在北緯 12.6 度，東經 140.4 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 80 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
東北東 時速 15 公里
預測 03月13日02時
中心位置在北緯 13.0 度，東經 141.1 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 90 公里
預測 24 小時內減弱為熱帶性低氣壓

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
東北東 時速 15 公里
預測 03月13日14時
中心位置在北緯 13.8 度，東經 142.5 度
中心氣壓1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 10 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 15 公尺
70%機率半徑 100 公里

Ragasa

熱帶低氣壓 鸚鵡
在香港時間 2026 年 03 月 12 日 02 時的最新資料

位置:  北緯 11.1 度，東經 138.6 度 (即香港之東南偏東約 2870 公里)
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 55 公里

鸚鵡會在今明兩日向偏東方向移動，橫過西北太平洋並逐漸減弱。

預測的位置和強度

香港時間	位置		熱帶氣旋類別	中心附近最高持續風速
2026 年 03 月 13 日 02 時	北 緯 10.6 度	東 經 140.1 度	熱帶低氣壓	每小時 45 公里
2026 年 03 月 14 日 02 時	北 緯 12.0 度	東 經 144.5 度	低壓區	每小時 40 公里

ygsj24

WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.0N 138.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 409 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION WITH ILL DEFINED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISSIPATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111617Z
AMSR 89GHZ PASS CONFIRMS THE LACK OF DEFINED SURFACE STRUCTURE. THE
OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES BOTH MISSED THE LLCC, PROVIDING NO SURFACE WIND
DATA TO ASSESS WHETHER A DEFINED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
AVAILABLE AGENCY DVORAK FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN
T2.0-T2.5, WHILE ADT AND AIDT VALUES TO BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION. AS NOTED, NO OCEAN SURFACE WIND
DATA WAS AVAILABLE TO CHARACTERIZE THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED TO BE APPROXIMATELY
20 KNOTS, WHILE THE 28 DEGREE SSTS AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
PROVIDE MINIMAL SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN THE CIRCULATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: CRESTING THE WESTERN AXIS OF A
MID-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 34 KTS AT 111638Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 111730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 111730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 111638Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 25 KTS AT 111730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE FORECAST TRACK WAS REDUCED IN DURATION TO
36 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO
DEGRADE SINCE THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS TIME, AND TD 03W MAY DISSIPATE
MUCH MORE RAPIDLY AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM. TD
NURI IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING A MID-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST, PROVIDING
A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO FUEL ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST
VORTEX TRACKERS LOSE THE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 30-48 HOURS,
INDICATIVE OF THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND. PRIOR TO DISSIPATION,
THE TRACKS ARE GENERALLY EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND IN REASONABLY
FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE DISPARITIES POTENTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED LLCC IN THE MODEL FIELDS. THE AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH DISSIPATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN