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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-19 23:15 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 13.6S 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.6S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.5S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.6S 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.0S 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.6S 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.5S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 144.9E.
19MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
199 NM NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 933 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 191500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
- NR 007//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 13.6S 145.4E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 199 NM NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 39 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) WITH AN INCREASINGLY CLOUD-FILLED AND
- CONSTRICTING EYE-FEATURE (12 NM IN DIAMETER), POTENTIALLY
- INDICATING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
- TO THE OBSERVABLE EYE ON ANIMATED EIR, CONTINUING DEEP CONVECTION
- HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED WRAPPING UNIFORMLY AROUND THE LLCC, WITH
- NOTICEABLE INCREASED PRESSURE ALONG THE SYSTEMS EASTERN PERIPHERY
- DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN 15-20
- KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS HAS REVEALED CONTINUED MOSTLY FAVORABLE
- CONDITIONS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BETWEEN 28-29
- C, ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND MODERATE VWS. THE INITIAL
- POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EVIDENT
- EYE-FEATURE ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
- INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
- SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES HOLDING AT 127 KTS, CIMSS
- OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND AN EARLIER 190847Z RCM-1 PASS.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 190847Z RCM-1 SAR DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
- KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
- ABRF: T6.5 - 127 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 146 KTS AT 190841Z
- CIMSS ADT: 137 KTS AT 191130Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 132 KTS AT 191130Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 128 KTS AT 190839Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 132 KTS AT 191200Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
- GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS, ALONG THE NORTHERN
- PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA.
- FOLLOWING TAU 72, THE WESTERN-MOST EXTENT OF THE STR OVER WESTERN
- AUSTRALIA IS FORECASTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND RETREAT
- SOUTHEASTWARD, ALLOWING TC 27P TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
- UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 120, TC NARELLE IS
- FORECASTED TO TRACK A FEW MILES JUST NORTH OF ADELE ISLAND AS THE
- TRACK BEGINS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTWARD. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 27P
- IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
- WHILE MAKING AN INITIAL LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 6 AND TAU 12. AS THE
- LLCC TRACKS INTO NORTH QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA, SURFACE INTENSITIES
- ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TOWARD 95 KTS AS THE SYSTEM COMPETES WITH
- LAND INTERACTION AND SUSTAINED MODERATE VWS. FOLLOWING INITIAL
- LANDFALL,
- A REEMERGENCE OVER OPEN WATER IS FORECASTED BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU
- 24 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD LLCC.
- AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD, THE BROAD LLCC WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
- WRAP TIGHTLY AND UNDERGO A PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION TOWARD 80
- KTS BY TAU 48. FOLLOWING TAU 48, A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE
- EAST COAST OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORY IS EXPECTED. DURING THIS
- PERIOD, GRADUAL DECAY IS FORECASTED DUE TO ADDITIONAL FRICTIONAL
- LAND IMPACTS AND VWS OVER 15 KTS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD
- OVER THE NORTHERN TERRITORY, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECASTED
- TOWARD 55 KTS BY TAU 72, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
- DARWIN. NEAR TAU 84, TC 27P WILL REEMERGE OVER THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE
- GULF; HOWEVER, THE SHORT PERIOD OVER OPEN WATER WILL LIMIT
- CONSIDERABLE REINTENSIFICATION. A FEW HOURS BEFORE TAU 96, TC
- NARELLE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A THIRD LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
- EXTREME OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA AS SURFACE INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO
- GRADUALLY DECAY TO 45 KTS. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, TC NARELLE
- WILL ONCE AGAIN REEMERGE OVER OPEN WATER, OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST
- OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DURING THIS PERIOD, GRADUAL REINTENSIFICAITON
- IS FORECASTED TOWARD 55 KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS
- EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
- VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AN
- IMPROVING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 32 NM MY TAU 72. FOLLOWING TAU 72,
- THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 109 NM BY TAU 96
- AS THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACKS TC 27P FARTHER WESTWARD AS
- THE NORTHERN-MOST SOLUTION, WHILE AVAILABLE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
- SOLUTIONS CHARACTERIZE THE SOUTHERN-MOST TRACK JUST NORTH OF ROWLEY
- SHOALS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THE
- JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, WHICH LIES
- SQUARELY BETWEEN GFS AND THE AVAILABLE GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTION.
- REGARDING INTENSITY, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATES A WEAKENING
- PHASE UNTIL TAU 24. FOLLOWING TAU 24, ALL INTENSITY SOLUTIONS ARE
- BECOMING INCREASINGLY ALIGNED DURING THE SYSTEMS TREK ACROSS
- MULTIPLE LANDMASSES AND REGIONS OF OPEN WATER, WITH COAMPS-TC
- REMAINING AS THE ONLY OUTLIER DURING THE EXPECTED TRACK IN THE
- WESTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THEREFORE, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
- HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
- PERIOD AND PLACED JUST ABOVE THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
- CONSENSUS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ragasa
发表于 2026-3-19 18:05
