TCFA - 关岛东南93W - 7.7N 149.7E - 逐渐西行，数值支持发展 - JMA:GW

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JMA 06Z发布GW，首报上望40KT，预报+120h减弱为TD

WTPQ50 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  050600UTC 08.3N 149.7E FAIR
MOVE  W SLOWLY
PRES  1004HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  060600UTC 08.0N 145.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE  W 10KT
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
48HF  070600UTC 08.0N 142.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE  W 08KT
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
72HF  080600UTC 09.1N 139.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 08KT
PRES  998HPA
MXWD  040KT
GUST  060KT
96HF  090600UTC 10.5N 136.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 07KT
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
120HF 100600UTC 11.5N 134.3E 240NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

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ECMWF 00Z系集

eoj329

00z的數值，相對EC IFS大部分系集傾向轉向趨勢而言，FNV3這報路徑分歧的範圍相對較大。

eoj329

暫時來看，結合傳統預報和AI預報而言，系統以西或西北偏西的移動方向趨向130°E以西的菲東洋面概率很大。

eoj329

FNV3大型系集上，出現南海地區5月份的經典路徑類型，但現時情況誤差率極高，暫時難以談論影響。

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FNV3 1000成员依然反应强烈

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As of 2:00 PM today, 05 May 2026, the Low Pressure Area (LPA 05a) being monitored has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the other Low Pressure Area (LPA 05b) being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has developed into a Tropical Depression.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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JTWC 09Z分析维持T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 050859
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (W OF CHUUK)
B. 05/0830Z
C. 8.15N
D. 149.17E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

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GFS 06Z稍微调强，巅峰约993百帕

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JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.0

TPPN11 PGTW 051140
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (W OF CHUUK)
B. 05/1130Z
C. 8.28N
D. 149.02E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU