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发表于 2026-5-7 10:34
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JTWC/05W/#06/05-07 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 7.2N 143.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 365 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI),
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAGUPIT) EXHIBITS PRONOUNCED ASYMMETRY, WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
NASCENT CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALONG A LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE DATA RECEIVED
WAS A 062003Z SSMIS PASS, IN WHICH THE 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALED
DEFINITIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES, THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE
ESTABLISHING THE INITIAL POSITION IS CONSTRAINED BY DISORGANIZED FLOW
PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE MSI, A 070000Z IN
SITU SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM WOLEAI ATOLL INDICATED LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1004MB, PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE STATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS A RANGE
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS, WITH THE COMPOSITE OF OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW CONSTRAINED BETWEEN THESE VALUES.
070000Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES FROM YAP AND PALAU INDICATE MODERATE
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH MAXIMUM SHEAR MAGNITUDE
LOCATED IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED VERTICAL
TILT OF THE VORTEX CORE AS DEPICTED IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE,
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SSTS, AND WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER, THESE FACTORS ARE ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY
DRY ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AND MODERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW TO MID-LEVELS OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 35 KTS AT 062300Z
CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 070000Z
CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 070000Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 27 KTS AT 062100Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 070000Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK; HIGH
MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 05W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR
POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO AN INCREASED
POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHILE DECELERATING AFTER TAU 72, AS THE
STR RECEDES EASTWARD AND THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A WEAK STEERING
REGIME. TS 05W WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF YAP AROUND TAU 36 BEFORE
TRAVERSING THE PHILIPPINE SEA. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT POOR CONSOLIDATION IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT
MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE
MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC SHEAR
REGIME FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS; CONSEQUENTLY, INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY TAU 36, SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER, WHILE
SHEAR TENDENCIES ARE NEGATIVE, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL PERSIST AS A
PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR; THUS, TS 05W WILL INTENSIFY ONLY
MARGINALLY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
SUCCUMB TO INCREASING VWS AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
DEGRADATION, RESULTING IN CYCLOLYSIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD GRADUALLY
INCREASES TO 120MM AT TAU 72 AND 250NM BY TAU 120. GFS AND NAVGEM
MARK THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE ECMWF AND EC-AIFS MARK THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, WITH MINIMAL MODEL DISPERSION THROUGH
TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ALIGNED WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL AI MODEL
AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN TRACKERS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE EXHIBITS BIMODAL SOLUTIONS. THE WEAKER COHORT
INCLUDES GFS, HAFS-A, AND THE EXPERIMENTAL AI MODEL, PREDICTING A
PEAK NEAR 40 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY STEADY DISSIPATION. THE
OTHER COHORT, CONSISTING OF HWRF, COAMPS-TC AND DECAY SHIPS, DEPICTS
A HIGHER PEAK MAGNITUDE NEAR 50 KNOTS BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AFTER
TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST IS HEDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH
TAU 48, THEN ROUGHLY ANALOGOUS TO THE HWRF TRACKER THROUGH TAU 120,
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2026-5-7 09:06
