马里亚纳群岛2604号超强台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 风眼快速打开清空，或重创塞班岛 - NMC:70m/s JMA:115KT JTWC:160KT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析降至T2.5/3.5

TPPN10 PGTW 180551
A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 18/0530Z
C. 23.18N
D. 146.80E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.5/3.5/W1.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.5. MET
YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析亦降至T2.5/3.5

TXPQ22 KNES 180653
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  18/0530Z
C.  23.2N
D.  146.8E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...A LLCC THAT LIES JUST OVER ONE HALF OF A DEGREE FROM THE
EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE
MET IS 2.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
DUE TO SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE CENTER LOCATION THE COULD EASILY
CHANGE THE DETERMINED DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    18/0328Z 22.8N 146.8E AMSR2
...HOSLEY

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析T2.5/3.0

TPPN10 PGTW 180903
A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 18/0830Z
C. 23.61N
D. 146.98E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
2.5. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

Enceladus

补一张ASCAT UHR，接近00Z仍有70节甚至更高的数据

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 06Z继续预报短期内将向北偏东转东北方向移动

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.5/3.0

TPPN10 PGTW 181143
A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 18/1130Z
C. 24.13N
D. 147.46E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
2.5. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析降至T2.0/3.0

TXPQ22 KNES 181155
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  18/1130Z
C.  24.1N
D.  147.5E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...LLCC LOCATED <1.25 DEGREES FROM SHEARED DG OVERCAST
RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 2.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY WEAKENING 24
HOUR TREND. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT EXTENT OF ACTIVE CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...MONAGHAN

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 12Z分析

- Sinlaku (2604) -
Position: 24.16N 147.16E
Motion: NE (20°), 4.63m/s
DT: 2.0       PT: 2.5
MET: 2.5    W1.5/24HRS
CI: 3.0        FT: 2.5 b.o. PT

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 06Z系集